NBFCs will show up better asset quality: Moody’s

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Non-banking finance companies could well outpace commercial banks, struggling to grow amid muted loan expansion and bad loan burden, said global rating company Moody’s.

But, NBFCs too are exposed to certain risks emanating from their fast-faced growth in loan against properties, which they are in a position to mitigate with larger share in mortgaged loans.

Non-bank financial companies (NBFCs) in India (Baa3 positive) will demonstrate broadly stable asset quality, but  delinquencies will likely rise over the next 1-2 quarters, as demonetisation adversely affects collections across asset classes, said Moody’s Investors Service in a note.

“While the 90+days delinquency rate in the commercial vehicle (CV) loan segment largely stabilized in the first half of the fiscal year ending 31 March 2017, such delinquencies should build up in the near term due to the adverse impact of demonetisation and tighter recognition norms for non-performing  assets (NPAs),” said Alka Anbarasu, a Moody’s Vice President and Senior Analyst.

Moody’s also notes that the growth in loans against property (LAP) has outpaced overall retail credit growth in recent years, but relatively loose underwriting practices–combined with intensifying competition – will translate into higher asset quality risk for this segment.

Furthermore, over the past 3 years, NBFCs have gained some market share in the origination of retail lending, on the back of the faster growth exhibited by such entities when compared to the banks.

This is particularly the case when compared to public sector banks, which face significant challenges on their asset quality and overall solvency profiles.

“Nevertheless, we expect that competitive pressures from the banking sector will remain intense as banks are increasing targeting of the retail segment to offset weakness in their corporate lending. In addition, retail lending, particularly housing loans, is more capital efficient for the banks,” said Anbarasu.

And, while the NBFCs’ capitalization levels are adequate, with average Tier 1 ratios in excess of 14%, capital generation will lag credit growth. Access to external capital will therefore be key in sustaining the NBFCs’ growth momentum.

On funding, Moody’s expects that the NBFCs’ funding profiles will broadly remain stable, and funding costs should moderate gradually, given the reduction in systemic rates.

In addition, the NBFCs’ profitability and capital, as well as funding and liquidity levels, will stay broadly stable.

The NBFCs are growing at a fast pace, and have gained market share in the origination of retail credit. And, their share of LAP pose a potential source of risk, with such loans growing at a rapid compound annual growth rate of about 25% over the last four years compared to 17% for overall retail credit.

Moody’s says that the NBFCs’ exposure to potential risks from LAP is broadly offset by their share of stable mortgage loans, because favorable demographics and economics, tax incentives for home loans and an increasingly affordable housing segment support asset quality.

Moody’s expects that the loss given default for both home loans and LAP will be limited, in light of the underlying collateral.

Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/57749011.cms

India Inc more analytics savvy than global peers

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There are a few aspects that are common to Indian organisations that have a successful analytics strategy in place.

Non-banking finance companies could well outpace commercial banks, struggling to grow amid muted loan expansion and bad loan burden, said global rating company Moody’s.

But, NBFCs too are exposed to certain risks emanating from their fast-faced growth in loan against properties, which they are in a position to mitigate with larger share in mortgaged loans.

Non-bank financial companies (NBFCs) in India (Baa3 positive) will demonstrate broadly stable asset quality, but  delinquencies will likely rise over the next 1-2 quarters, as demonetisation adversely affects collections across asset classes, said Moody’s Investors Service in a note.

“While the 90+days delinquency rate in the commercial vehicle (CV) loan segment largely stabilized in the first half of the fiscal year ending 31 March 2017, such delinquencies should build up in the near term due to the adverse impact of demonetisation and tighter recognition norms for non-performing  assets (NPAs),” said Alka Anbarasu, a Moody’s Vice President and Senior Analyst.

Moody’s also notes that the growth in loans against property (LAP) has outpaced overall retail credit growth in recent years, but relatively loose underwriting practices–combined with intensifying competition – will translate into higher asset quality risk for this segment.

Furthermore, over the past 3 years, NBFCs have gained some market share in the origination of retail lending, on the back of the faster growth exhibited by such entities when compared to the banks.

This is particularly the case when compared to public sector banks, which face significant challenges on their asset quality and overall solvency profiles.

“Nevertheless, we expect that competitive pressures from the banking sector will remain intense as banks are increasing targeting of the retail segment to offset weakness in their corporate lending. In addition, retail lending, particularly housing loans, is more capital efficient for the banks,” said Anbarasu.

And, while the NBFCs’ capitalization levels are adequate, with average Tier 1 ratios in excess of 14%, capital generation will lag credit growth. Access to external capital will therefore be key in sustaining the NBFCs’ growth momentum.

On funding, Moody’s expects that the NBFCs’ funding profiles will broadly remain stable, and funding costs should moderate gradually, given the reduction in systemic rates.

In addition, the NBFCs’ profitability and capital, as well as funding and liquidity levels, will stay broadly stable.

The NBFCs are growing at a fast pace, and have gained market share in the origination of retail credit. And, their share of LAP pose a potential source of risk, with such loans growing at a rapid compound annual growth rate of about 25% over the last four years compared to 17% for overall retail credit.

Moody’s says that the NBFCs’ exposure to potential risks from LAP is broadly offset by their share of stable mortgage loans, because favorable demographics and economics, tax incentives for home loans and an increasingly affordable housing segment support asset quality.

Moody’s expects that the loss given default for both home loans and LAP will be limited, in light of the underlying collateral.

Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/57749011.cms

 

India, Russia to set up $1 bn fund to promote business:Nirmala Sitharaman

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Both the countries would contribute USD 500 million to the fund, Sitharaman said while addressing India-Russia Business Forum at the ongoing International Engineering Sourcing Show (IESS).

India and Russia are setting up a USD 1 billion fund to promote mutual investments in infrastructure and technology projects, Commerce and Industry Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said.

Both the countries would contribute USD 500 million to the fund, Sitharaman said while addressing India-Russia Business Forum at the ongoing International Engineering Sourcing Show (IESS) here yesterday.

While the Russian funds would be channeled through Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), Indian contribution will be accrued from National Investment and Infrastructure Fund.

Sitharaman elaborated upon other measures being taken by Russia and India to scale up their economic engagement and to boost bilateral trade and investment.

As part of these initiatives, the India Russia CEO Forum will hold its meeting this year at a mutually convenient date. The forum was constituted in St Petersburg in June 2016.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from Russia is estimated at USD 1.2 billion till date while Indian investment in Russia is around USD 4.9 billion.

“There is tremendous potential for enhancing such investments,” the minister said, adding that initiatives like Make-in-India would catalyse Russian investment in several Indian sectors including Defence production.

“The Make-in-India initiative was launched by the government in order to encourage businesses to manufacture products in the country, creating additional jobs for local population. This is a major drive to foster innovation, enhance skill development, protect intellectual property and build best-in-class manufacturing infrastructure,” she said.

India and Russia are engaged in robust cooperation in the energy sector, including collaborations in civil nuclear energy, hydrocarbons and renewable energy.

Source: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/india-russia-to-set-up-$1-bn-fund-to-promote-businessnirmala/1/906310.html

Indian economy to pick up once impact of note ban fades: IMF

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IMF in its note titled ‘Global Prospects and Policy Challenges’ said, “Further subsidy reduction and tax reforms, including a robust design and full implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), are necessary to attain medium-term fiscal consolidation plans.”

India’s economic growth is expected to pick up once the effects of cash shortages linked to the currency exchange initiative fade, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said. Prime Minister Narendra Modi on November 8 had announced scrapping of old Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes, pulling out 86 per cent of the total currency in circulation.

 

Noting that India’s fiscal deficit is expected to continue narrowing in the near-term, the IMF in its note titled ‘Global Prospects and Policy Challenges’ said, “Further subsidy reduction and tax reforms, including a robust design and full implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), are necessary to attain medium-term fiscal consolidation plans.”

 

It further observed that in some emerging economies like China and India reducing excessive corporate leverage and improving bank’s balance sheets or adopting more prudent risk-management practices, including to reduce currency and maturity balance sheet mismatches, will help reduce vulnerabilities to global financial conditions, possible capital outflows, and sharp currency movements.

 

The government last month pegged GDP growth at 7.1 per cent for 2016-17 despite the note ban. The Central Statistics Office (CSO) had put the figure for October-December at 7 per cent, compared to 7.4 per cent in the second quarter and 7.2 per cent in the first.

 

India’s growth was higher than China’s 6.8 per cent for October-December of 2016. The growth numbers were better than those projected by RBI (6.9 per cent) and international agencies like IMF (6.6 per cent) and OECD (7 per cent) in view of the cash recall. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in February last year had projected the country’s growth at 7.4 per cent for 2016-17. Buoyed by higher-than-expected growth, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has also said a 7 per cent expansion in the third quarter belies the exaggerated claims of note ban impact on the rural economy.

 

Source: http://www.financialexpress.com/economy/indian-economy-to-pick-up-once-impact-of-note-ban-fades-imf/589248/

Modi’s Win Sends Indian Stocks to Record, Rupee to 16-Month High

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– Nifty surpasses March 2015 peak, Sensex gains as much as 2.1%.
– Bigger-than-expected victory seen as endorsement of reforms

Indian equities rallied to a record and the rupee climbed the most since 2013 after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s resounding victory in state elections boosted expectations for a continuation of his reform agenda.

The NSE Nifty 50 Index climbed 1.7 percent to 9,087, crossing its March 2015 record close, as the market reopened after a holiday. The India VIX Index, a gauge of expected stock-price swings, touched an all-time low. The rupee surged 1.2 percent to 65.8175 per dollar, the strongest level since November 2015. The central bank was seen buying dollars in early trade to cap gains but moved away later, Mumbai-based traders said.

“This win will give Modi the confidence to push ahead with more reforms and not pursue populist policies,” Sampath Reddy, chief investment officer at Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance Co., said by phone. The insurer, which oversees 480 billion rupees ($7.3 billion) of assets, is bullish on financial-services companies and metal producers, he said.

Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party won 312 seats in the 403-member assembly of Uttar Pradesh, according to the Election Commission of India, up from 47 in 2012. The results in India’s largest state were seen as a litmus test of Modi’s popularity and reforms, including opening up the country to more foreign investment and seeking to introduce a goods and services tax, ahead of general elections in 2019.

While exit polls released last week suggested a large BJP victory was possible in Uttar Pradesh, the scale of the win was stark in a state that has long been divided along religious and caste lines. It is also a repudiation of political foes who assumed that Modi’s disruptive Nov. 8 move to junk high-value currency notes would be politically unpopular.

“Uttar Pradesh is a state where mandates have tended to be mostly divisive, so the result is a mandate for development, which has been sorely missing in the state,” Gautam Sinha Roy, a fund manager at Mumbai-based Motilal Oswal Asset Management Co., said by phone. “Markets will now start assigning higher probability to a BJP victory in the 2019 polls.”

India’s economic growth has been 7 percent or more in each of the last four quarters, which has helped lure $3.4 billion of foreign funds into local stocks and bonds this year. Mutual funds bought shares for seven months through February, including a record $2.1 billion in November. The S&P BSE Sensex has risen 11 percent in 2017, and the rupee is up 3.2 percent against the dollar.

“We expect the Reserve Bank of India to more actively cap further rupee gains given the sharp swing higher in the real effective exchange rate in recent months,” Divya Devesh, an Asia FX strategist at Standard Chartered Bank in Singapore, said by e-mail. He forecasts the rupee at 69 rupees to the dollar by year-end.

Pricey Valuations

The Nifty came off an intraday high of 9,122.75 as investor focus turned to a near-certain interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve this week and expected revival in corporate profitability. The Nifty and the Sensex are valued at about 21 times forward earnings, the highest level since April 2010.

“Valuations look stretched and investors are cautious with the Fed meeting round the corner,” said Sushant Kumar, a fund manager at RAAY Global Investments Pvt. in Mumbai. “Stocks have priced in the expected increase in rates. The focus is on Fed’s outlook.” The Nifty may reach 10,000 by March 2018, accompanied by as much as 14 percent expansion in earnings of its 50 members, he said.

Still, the scale of the BJP’s victory paves the way for further reforms and should lead to more inflows, supporting asset prices, according to Vikas Gupta, chief investment strategist at OmniScience Capital Pvt. in Mumbai.

“For international investors, India is one of the few emerging markets that has everything going for it: demographics, economics and politics,” he said. “With elections settled, it is clear that the federal government is now going to be fully in charge of the parliament.”

 

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-14/modi-s-victory-sends-indian-stocks-to-record-rupee-advances