Foreign capital flow into EMs climbs to $25 billion

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Emerging markets (EMs) have witnessed an inflow of $25 billion from foreign portfolio investors in this month so far, says a report.

Equity flows were the dominant driver this month, with an estimated $14.6 billion in inflows, while debt flows were more moderate at $10.2 billion, according to the report by the Institute of International Finance.
Inflows were dominated by EM Asia, followed by Latin America, while EM Europe and Africa, West Asia saw modest outflows.

“Regionally, EM Asia saw total inflows of $19.1 billion, followed by Latin America with inflows of $8.7 billion, while there were modest outflows from EM Europe and AFME,” the report noted.

Portfolio flows to EMs rose to $24.8 billion in July from $13.3 billion in the preceding month. Prior to that, EMs saw an outflow of $12.3 billion in May.

“In fact, July marked only the second month over the past year where portfolio flows were above their long-term average of $22 billion,” it added.

The recovery in flows during the past few months follows a period of exceptional weakness in EM portfolio flows that began with China’s mini-devaluation almost a year ago and saw cumulative outflows of $81 billion from EMs, compared to $96 billion during the global financial crisis.

Source: http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/foreign-capital-flow-into-ems-climbs-to-25-billion-116072800946_1.html

IMF knowledge sharing center to come up in India

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In a first for Asia, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will set up a knowledge-sharing centre in India, to provide technical support and assistance here and to five other South Asian nations. Their team will extend expertise in core macroeconomic and financial management areas, said an unnamed government source. An agreement is likely to be signed here on Saturday by IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The new IMF centre, being set up amid global economic uncertainty, will provide assistance to India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bhutan. Since the IMF team will be based out of the region, it will ensure better understanding of regional concerns, including trade, agriculture, climate change, facilitating a reform process and support to regional integration. The knowledge centre will come up in the wake of IMF announcing implementation of its long-pending quota reform, giving more voting rights to emerging economies.

With these changes, to be effected in the coming days, India’s quota in the IMF would rise to 2.7 per cent from the existing 2.44 per cent. Also, the voting share of India would increase to 2.6 per cent from 2.34 per cent. For the first time, four emerging market (EM) countries of the Brics bloc — Brazil, China, India and Russia — will be among the 10 largest members of IMF.

Two new multilateral agencies are also being set up — a New Development Bank of the Brics countries and an Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

An Asian economic crisis did occur in the late 1990s but from the Southeast Asian ‘tigers’ of that time. This time, one could emanate from China or another large economy from the EMs. According to the Economic Survey of 2015-16, if this kind of crisis does emerge, it would be very different from those of earlier decades. Since the 1980s, it said external financial crises have followed one of three basic forms — Latin American, Asian or global models.

In a Latin American debt crisis, governments went on a spending binge, financed by foreign borrowing (of recycled petrodollars) while pegging their exchange rates. In the Asian one of the late 1990s, the transmission mechanism was similar — overheating and unsustainable external positions under fixed exchange rates — but the instigating impulse was private borrowing rather than governnment borrowing.

The global one of 2008, with America as its epicentre, was unique in that it involved a systemically important country and originated in doubts about its financial system.

If a crisis occurs in China or another large EM, it is more likely to resemble events of the 1930s, when the UK and then the US went off the gold standard, triggering a series of devaluations by other countries and leading to a collapse of global economic activity.

If such a crisis hits India, it will require fresh prescriptions and it is here that the IMF centre would be of help, a source said.

Source: http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/imf-knowledge-sharing-centre-to-come-up-in-india-116030901112_1.html