Economic Survey 2016-17: Arvind Subramanian says 5.4 lakh new tax payers added post demonetisation, calls GST astonishing feat

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Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian while speaking at the Economic Survey 2016-17 said that there has been a regime shift in terms of macroeconomic stability since demonetisation.

Economic Survey 2016-17: Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian while speaking at the Economic Survey 2016-17 said that there has been a regime shift in terms of macroeconomic stability since demonetisation.

He revealed that about 5.4 lakh new tax payers have been added since Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes invalid on November 8, 2016. “5.4 lakh new tax payers added in post-demonetisation period, a big number,” he was quoted as saying by ANI.

Talking more about the impact of demonetisation on the Indian economy, Subramanian said the long term effect is that there has been a 20% reduction in cash in the economy.

He added that so far the government has overachieved its targets on inflation and it will soon be within target. “Substantially overachieved on checking inflation; by the end of March, inflation will be well within the target. Long term effect of demonetisation has been a 20% reduction in cash in economy”, the CEA added.

Talking about the boom to mobile banking, Subramanian said both level and pace of digital payments have been different since demonetisation.

While speaking about the historic Goods and Service Tax which was implemented last month, Subramanian said it is an astonishing feat of administration, politics and technology.

He said farm loans are going to have a deflationary, not inflationary effect if states’ borrowing limit is not raised. The Chief Economic Adviser further added that the balance of risks to growth has shifted to the downside.

His comments came in the backdrop of protests being held by farmers across the country. He said a structural decline in inflation rates and outlook has created scope for lower interest rates and monetary policy.

Source: Financial Express

 

Historic GST launched at midnight, from today India is finally one nation, one tax

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India embraced the goods and services tax (GST) on the intervening night of Friday-Saturday, in a move that marked the culmination of the country’s long and chequered journey toward a uniform, all-encompassing, pan-India indirect tax system.

India embraced the goods and services tax (GST) on the intervening night of Friday-Saturday, in a move that marked the culmination of the country’s long and chequered journey toward a uniform, all-encompassing, pan-India indirect tax system. The GST would militate against and cut out the cascade of multiple taxes which jack up product prices. The official launch of the tax preceded a grand ceremony in the central hall of Parliament attended by the president and prime minister, along with members of both Houses and the GST Council. Some Opposition parties including the Congress, Trinamool Congress and Left did not attend the ceremony, citing protests against GST by small and medium-scale entrepreneurs, traders, weavers and informal-sector workers.

Although the design of the new destination-based tax on consumption with its multiple rates, sub-optimal coverage and complicated rules is unmistakably inferior to an “ideal GST”, even independent tax experts welcomed the launch, calling it a transformational move. However, trenchant critics would say the imperfect GST has merely enabled cross-utilisation of credit between the central and state VAT chains and is, therefore, akin to the 2004 Cenvat rules that allowed such cross-credit facility between central excise and service tax.

But these critics might have taken too dim a view; GST is a momentous event for thee reasons: One, it puts in place a federal, rules-bound indirect tax system that would curtail the scope of rate differentials for the same products among states (one-product-one-tax) ; two, it could potentially slash India’s high logistics costs by speeding up movement of goods across state borders and even within states and thereby make the country’s goods and services more competitive; and three, thanks to the availability of seamless input tax credits, GST would discourage tax evasion and expand the revenue base for the government without hurting the businesses or the consumers. The GST will subsume excise duty and state VAT (along with the corresponding taxes on imports), service tax, octroi, entry tax, purchase tax, central sales tax, and entertainment tax, but not the basic Customs duty which is the tariff on imports.

Earlier, the GST Council, which met for an hour, decided to reduce the tax rate on fertilisers from 12% proposed earlier to 5%, a move that would nullify the chances of prices of these key farm inputs rising under GST. The gap between the current tax incidence on fertilisers and the 12% rate had created a practical difficulty in recovering the differential from fertiliser stocks lying with manufacturers and dealers as MRPs are printed on them. Also, the ministry of finance tweeted, the rate for “exclusive parts of tractors” have been reduced to 18% from 28%.

NITI Aayog member Bibek Debroy on Friday rebutted the claim that GST would produce 1.5% increase in GDP. “For an imperfect GST, I have no idea what is the figure. This particular figure (1.5%) was for ideal GST,” he said. Chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian had told FE earlier that even though “we have not got as much base expansion and as much reduction in complexities as we would have liked”, there was still a huge reduction in complexities. “I expect a 10% expansion in the (tax) base due to just invoice-matching,” he had said.

While the government has iterated that the GST would not stoke inflation — GST will be zero on 50% of consumer price index basket and 5% on another 10% — former finance minister P Chidambaram said that the new tax could be inflationary in the short run. However, Subramanian said that with with actual tax incidence to be substantially lower under GST due to input tax credit, a downward bias on prices was to be expected. Firms disposing of stocks could also have a dampening effect on prices in the short run, he added.

Even as the industry is keeping its fingers crossed, the government has assured them that the anti-profiteering provision built into the relevant GST laws to prevent companies from not passing on the tax benefit under GST to consumers would be sparingly used. “I sincerely hope that we don’t have to really use the anti-profiteering mechanism,” Jaitley had said on Thursday. Chidambaram, however, sharply criticised the mechanism, saying it was wrong to assume that “the element of taxes decide at what price I sell my goods”. Since tax is only one of the things that make up costs, he said, if tax falls, it does not mean there should be a corresponding reduction in prices.

Even though 68 lakh businesses have already been issued provisional IDs by GSTN, the IT backbone for the new system, and the deadline for first filing of returns have been postponed to August 20 — invoice-wise returns can be filed as late as the first week of September — concern over the transition pains remained. Arun Kumar, chairman and CEO at KPMG in India, said: “The focus should now be on making the transition seamless and effective. Making compliance cost-effective, particularly for smaller businesses, is extremely important. The potential benefits of this landmark-reform will become real when the benefits of rationalised taxation accrue to consumers and business benefits from cost-efficiencies in logistics and streamlined processes.”

According to Shyamal Mukherjee, chairman, PwC India, “We are confident (that GST) will boost investors’ confidence in India, incentivise manufacturing and fuel the growth of the economy.” When asked about the quantum of extra growth due to GST by a TV channel earlier in the day, the chief economic adviser, however, merely said GST’s effect on the economy would be “positive”. “The medium-term impact of GST on macroeconomic indicators is expected to be extremely positive. Inflation will be reduced as cascading of taxes will be eliminated,” CII director general Chandrajit Banerjee said, adding that exports would emerge as more competitive in global markets, while FDI was likely to be encouraged.

Source: http://www.financialexpress.com/economy/historic-gst-launched-at-midnight-from-today-india-is-finally-one-nation-one-tax/744112/

IMF sees growth cooling to 6% in second half of FY17

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India’s economic growth would slow to about six per cent in the second half of this financial year (October-March) due to demonetisation, against 7.2 per cent in the first half, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Wednesday.

India’s representative in IMF Subir Gokarn said the growth projections came at a time when hard data was unavailable. He described the assessment as “unduly pessimistic”. In the medium term, however, the IMF is hopeful that implementation of the Goods and Services Tax could raise India’s growth rate to more than eight per cent.

The Fund said the cost of recapitalising public sector banks would be affordable even under a negative scenario. In a report on India, the IMF said growth would gradually rebound in 2017-18.

In January, it had cut India’s growth estimate to 6.6 per cent for 2016-17 due to the note ban, against 7.6 per cent estimated earlier. Growth was estimated to be 6.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of the financial year.

Taking both the estimates into consideration, the IMF said, third quarter growth might fall below six per cent.

The Central Statistics Office will come out with the third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data and the revised advance estimates on the coming Tuesday. Its first advance estimates had shown economic growth at 7.1 per cent in 2016-17, against 7.6 per cent the previous year. The office had not taken into account the effect of demonetisation.

Commenting on IMF’s revision of growth rates, Gokarn said, “While we do not question the methodologies used to revise the estimates, the fact is that there isn’t very much hard data to base the revisions.” He said different assumptions about the impact would obviously lead to different conclusions. While virtually all forecasters have revised their projections for 2016-17 downwards, the range was relatively wide, he added.

To buttress his points, Gokarn said the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have pegged growth at seven per cent, after accounting for change in the currency policy. The authorities’ estimate was 7.1 per cent. IMF directors supported India’s efforts to tackle illicit financial flows, but noted the strains that have emerged from the currency exchange initiative. They called for action to quickly restore the availability of cash to avoid further payment disruptions, and encouraged prudent monitoring of the potential side-effects of the initiative on financial stability and growth.
On tackling India’s $130 billion in stressed loans, the IMF said “recapitalisation costs should be manageable” at between 1.5 and 2.4 per cent of the GDP forecast, according to Reuters.

Of that, the government’s share would be between 1.0 and 1.6 per cent of GDP over the four years to March 2019, assuming 40 per cent of the loans have to be provided against. “It’s very positive that both the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the government are putting a shared focus on addressing the balance-sheet problem,” IMF Resident Representative Andreas Bauer told a conference call.

The chief economic advisor, Arvind Subramanian, on Wednesday backed a call by the RBI to set up an institution similar to “bad bank”, saying urgency was needed to address troubled loans weighing on the banking sector.

In a special report on corporate and banking sector risks in India, the IMF said recapitalisation costs would be “significantly higher if there is a policy shift to more conservative provisioning requirements”.

In case of a rise in the provisioning ratio to 70 per cent, cumulative recapitalisation needs would increase to 3.3-4.2 per cent of forecast GDP in the financial year to March 2019, with a government share of 2.2-2.8 per cent, the IMF said.

The IMF said with temporary demand disruptions and increased monsoon-driven food supplies, inflation was expected at about 4.75 per cent by early 2017— in line with the Reserve Bank of India’s inflation target of 5 per cent by March 2017.

The Fund said domestic risks flow from a potential further deterioration of corporate and public bank balance sheets, as well as setbacks in the reform process, including in GST design and implementation, which could weigh on domestic demand-driven growth and undermine investor and consumer sentiment.

On the upside, IMF said larger than expected gains from GST and further structural reforms could lead to significantly stronger growth; while a sustained period of continued-low global energy prices would also be very beneficial to India.

Source: http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/imf-sees-growth-cooling-to-6-in-second-half-of-fy17-117022300100_1.html

Union Budget 2017: Economic Survey says reforms to power India potential growth

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India’s economy could grow at 6.5-6.75% in the current financial year and might not gather significant momentum next year but that doesn’t warrant a fiscal/monetary easing, according to Economic Survey 2016-17 tabled in Parliament on Monday. Projecting a 0.25-0.5% demonetisation-induced reduction in the FY17 gross domestic product (GDP) growth relative to the 7% annual expansion the country would have otherwise reported, the survey cautiously estimated FY18 growth within a broad low-equilibrium range of 6.75-7.5%.

A clutch of states in India have suffered from an “aid curse” — that is, a negative effect on redistributive resource transfers on fiscal effort and governance quality — the survey noted and invited a debate on universal basic income (UBI) for households in these states.

Direct UBI transfers to the households could be a more efficient way to reduce poverty, cementing the recent gains in redistributive efficiency through the JAM (Jan Dhan, Aadhaar and mobile) platform, the authors of the survey felt, but they cautioned against UBI implementation until the tax-GDP ratio showed tangible rise.

“There is a big potential to improve the weak targeting of current (anti-poverty) schemes,” chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian said, amid rumours that Wednesday’s Union Budget might launch a pilot UBI.

According to the survey, the short-term effect of the note ban on the economy will be less adverse than many others predicted: The International Monetary Fund (IMF), for instance, saw a 1 percentage point growth reduction in FY17; the Reserve Bank of India had pegged a 0.5% loss in growth. The IMF, Subramanian said, relied on an “over-optimistic baseline”.

Given that growth was 7.2% in the first half of this fiscal and the survey assumption is against the baseline scenario of around 7% FY17 growth, the forecast is that second-half growth, at worst, could be around 6%.

This is still a bit more optimistic than what many independent analysts prognosticated — Morgan Stanley Research, for instance, put H2 FY17 growth at 5.5%.

However, the survey appreciated the limitation of capturing informal activity in the national income data, suggesting the pain of note recall might have been more severe. A set of structural reforms could take the economy towards the potential real GDP growth of 8-10%.

As for FY18, exports, which are “recovering”, based on an uptick in the global economy — the IMF has projected global growth to rise to 3.4% in 2017 from 3.1% in 2016 — would be a significant growth driver, the survey said, but admitted that the outlook for private consumption was less clear (oil prices are a potential drag while low interest rates might help a smart recovery in spending on housing and consumer durables). It also said candidly that given the sticky TBS or twin balance sheet problem, private investment was unlikely to recover from the FY17 level (fixed investment, according to the central statistics office, declined 0.2% this fiscal and investment as a share of GDP is now seen at 29%, down 5 percentage points from FY12). Demand-driven remonetisation, a push to digital payments using incentives, bringing land and real estate into the goods and services tax (GST) net, lowering tax rates and stamp duties and improving the tax system would help take growth back to trend in FY18, it said. However, the threat of trade tensions among major countries prevailed, especially given the Trump administration’s proclivity to step into a protectionist groove.

Giving the fiscal outlook for the Centre, the survey warned that the increase in tax-GDP ratio of about 0.5 percentage point each in the last two years owing to the oil windfall would disappear in FY18: “Excise-related taxes will decline by about 0.1 percentage point of GDP, a swing of about 0.6 percentage points relative to FY17,” it said. According to Crisil Research, about a third of the likely excise revenue of Rs 2.3 lakh crore in FY17 could be ascribed to excise duty increases on petroleum products. There would be windfalls from cessation of the RBI’s liability with respect to demonetised banknotes not returned to banks and the new income disclosure scheme PMGKY. Revenue potential from GST could, however, take some some time to be fully exploited.

While a committee on fiscal consolidation is believed to have recommended some well-defined escape clauses to provide the fiscal support to consumption and investment in the near term, the survey noted that primary balance (obtained after netting interest payments from the fiscal deficit) needed more attention. “The vulnerability is the country’s primary deficit… Put simply, India’s government is not collecting enough revenue to cover its running costs, let alone the interest on its debt obligations.” Although the survey noted that there was nothing extraordinary about this (other emerging market economies too run primary deficits), given India’s rapid rates of growth, its primary deficit should have been much lower than others.

This is still a bit more optimistic than what many independent analysts prognosticated — Morgan Stanley Research, for instance, put H2 FY17 growth at 5.5%.

However, the survey appreciated the limitation of capturing informal activity in the national income data, suggesting the pain of note recall might have been more severe. A set of structural reforms could take the economy towards the potential real GDP growth of 8-10%.

As for FY18, exports, which are “recovering”, based on an uptick in the global economy — the IMF has projected global growth to rise to 3.4% in 2017 from 3.1% in 2016 — would be a significant growth driver, the survey said, but admitted that the outlook for private consumption was less clear (oil prices are a potential drag while low interest rates might help a smart recovery in spending on housing and consumer durables). It also said candidly that given the sticky TBS or twin balance sheet problem, private investment was unlikely to recover from the FY17 level (fixed investment, according to the central statistics office, declined 0.2% this fiscal and investment as a share of GDP is now seen at 29%, down 5 percentage points from FY12). Demand-driven remonetisation, a push to digital payments using incentives, bringing land and real estate into the goods and services tax (GST) net, lowering tax rates and stamp duties and improving the tax system would help take growth back to trend in FY18, it said. However, the threat of trade tensions among major countries prevailed, especially given the Trump administration’s proclivity to step into a protectionist groove.

Giving the fiscal outlook for the Centre, the survey warned that the increase in tax-GDP ratio of about 0.5 percentage point each in the last two years owing to the oil windfall would disappear in FY18: “Excise-related taxes will decline by about 0.1 percentage point of GDP, a swing of about 0.6 percentage points relative to FY17,” it said. According to Crisil Research, about a third of the likely excise revenue of Rs 2.3 lakh crore in FY17 could be ascribed to excise duty increases on petroleum products. There would be windfalls from cessation of the RBI’s liability with respect to demonetised banknotes not returned to banks and the new income disclosure scheme PMGKY. Revenue potential from GST could, however, take some some time to be fully exploited.

While a committee on fiscal consolidation is believed to have recommended some well-defined escape clauses to provide the fiscal support to consumption and investment in the near term, the survey noted that primary balance (obtained after netting interest payments from the fiscal deficit) needed more attention. “The vulnerability is the country’s primary deficit… Put simply, India’s government is not collecting enough revenue to cover its running costs, let alone the interest on its debt obligations.” Although the survey noted that there was nothing extraordinary about this (other emerging market economies too run primary deficits), given India’s rapid rates of growth, its primary deficit should have been much lower than others.

Source: http://www.financialexpress.com/budget/economic-survey-2017/union-budget-2017-economic-survey-says-reforms-to-power-india-potential-growth/531664/