Demonetisation, GST will bring long-term benefits for Indian economy: IMF on Narendra Modi’s one-off policy moves

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The disruptive impact of demonetisation announced last year is a temporary phenomenon and the scrapping of the high-value currency would bring “permanent and substantial benefits”, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

In an interview to CNBC TV18, IMF Economic Counsellor and Director of Research Maurice Obstfeld said that although demonetisation, as well as implementation of the Goods and Services tax (GST) caused short-term disruptions, both measures would bring long-term benefits.

“The costs of demonetisation are largely temporary and we see permanent and substantial benefits accruing from the move,” Obstfeld said.

Demonetisation caused long queues outside banks.

Demonetisation caused long queues outside banks.

“Both demonetisation and the GST introduction will bring long-term benefits, though these caused short-term disruption,” he said.

The IMF Chief Economist described GST as a “work in progress” to which the Indian economy is “gradually adjusting”.

With businesses going into a “destocking” mode on inventories in anticipation of the GST rollout from July 1, sluggish manufacturing growth, among other factors, pulled down growth in the Indian economy during the first quarter of this fiscal to 5.7 percent, clocking the lowest GDP growth rate under the Narendra Modi dispensation.

Breaking a five-quarter slump, however, a rise in manufacturing sector output pushed the growth rate higher to 6.3 percent during the second quarter (July-September) of 2017-18.

Obstfeld also listed some of the reforms being undertaken by the Indian government that have impressed the multilateral agencies.

“The government has taken important first steps like bringing in the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, which helped India improve its position substantially in the World Bank’s ‘Ease of Doing Business’ rankings,” he said.

He also mentioned the recent recapitalisation plan for state-run banks announced by the government and the Asset Quality Review of commercial banks earlier ordered by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

Both measures are designed to address the issue of massive non-performing assets (NPAs), or bad loans, accumulated in the Indian banking system that have crossed a staggering Rs 8.5 lakh crore.

In a report released in Washington on Thursday, the IMF cautioned that the high volume of NPAs and the slow pace of mending corporate balance sheets are holding back investment and growth in India even though structural reforms have helped the nation record stronger growth.

The IMF’s Financial System Stability Assessment (FSSA) for India said that overall “India’s key banks appear resilient, but the system is subject to considerable vulnerabilities”.

“The financial sector is facing considerable challenges, and economic growth has recently slowed down,” the report said.

“High non-performing assets and slow deleveraging and repair of corporate balance sheets are testing the resilience of the banking system, and holding back investment and growth.”

“Stress tests show that… a group of public sector banks are highly vulnerable to further declines in asset quality and higher provisioning needs,” it added.

Source: FirstPost

GST Council makes inter-state e-way bill compulsory from February 1, 2018

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The rules for implementation of nationwide e-way bill system for inter-state movement of goods on a compulsory basis will be notified with effect from February 1, 2018. This will bring uniformity across states for seamless inter-state movement of goods,” the finance ministry said in a statement.

Ferrying goods across states may get quicker as the GST Council today decided to make rollout of all India electronic-way bill compulsory from February 1, two months ahead of the earlier plan.

 

“The rules for implementation of nationwide e-way bill system for inter-state movement of goods on a compulsory basis will be notified with effect from February 1, 2018. This will bring uniformity across states for seamless inter-state movement of goods,” the finance ministry said in a statement.

 

The decision comes after the Council, headed by finance minister Arun Jaitley, met earlier during the day via video conference, to decide upon the advancement of the implementation of e-way bill under the Goods and Services Tax (GST).

 

Under GST rules, ferrying goods worth more than Rs 50,000 within or outside a state will require securing an electronic-way or e-way bill by prior online registration of the consignment.

To generate an e-way bill, the supplier and transporter will have to upload details on the GST Network portal, after which a unique e-way bill number (EBN) will be made available to the supplier, the recipient and the transporter on the common portal.

 

The Council had decided that till such time as the national e-way Bill is ready, the states were authorised to continue their own separate e-way bill systems. The finance minister had said that system will be introduced in a staggered manner, with effect from January 1, 2018, adding that the document will be made applicable on an all-India basis from April 1.

 

“It was represented by the trade and transporters that this (lack of national e-way bill) is causing undue hardship in the inter-state movement of goods and therefore, bringing in an early all India system of e-way Bill has become a necessity,” the ministry said.

 

As a nationwide e-way bill system will be ready for implementation on a trial basis by January 16, transporters can start using this system on a voluntary basis from the same date, it said.

 

While the system for both inter and intra-State e-way bill generation will be ready next month, the Council decided that states may choose their own timings for implementation of the document for intra-state movement of goods on any date before 1st June, 2018.

 

“There are certain States which are already having system of e-way bill for intra-state as well as inter-state movement and some of those states can be early adopters of national e-way Bill system for intra-state movement also. But in any case, the uniform system of e-way bill for inter-state as well as intra-State movement will be implemented across the country by 1st June, 2018,” the statement said.

 

According to Abhishek A Rastogi, Partner, Khaitan & Co, the government should check the system thoroughly so that there is no disruption in movement of goods.

 

“The fair balance for mandatory inter-state e-way bill compliance from February 1 will have to be maintained. This compliance will reduce tax evasions but may pose some problems for businesses in movement of goods…while compulsory intra-state e-way bill compliance will happen from June 1, the government should be clear whether these provisions will be applicable for supplies which are out of the GST net,” Rastogi said.

 

Another expert said that the immediate call to advance the implementation of e-way bill reflects that some serious gaps in the system have been noticed by the government.

“The downfall in the revenue on account of GST, goods crossing the state borders unaccountable by few taxpayers, etc. could be the reasons for the early implementation of e-waybill as this form will forcefully make the taxpayer accountable in the absence of matching of invoices which is currently postponed,” Ansh Bhargava, Head Growth & Strategy, Taxmann said.

 

Source: MoneyControl.com

Modi government set to issue notices to GST defaulters

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Due to postponement of measures under the GST such as matching returns, the e-way bill, and the reverse change mechanism, assesses have found a way to avoid paying taxes.

The government it seems is in no mood to lower its guard on the tax collection front as it looks to send notices to GST defaulters.

 

According to a report in Business Standard, the government is set to issue notices who have failed to file returns.

 

Due to postponement of measures under the GST such as matching returns, the e-way bill, and the reverse change mechanism, assessees have found a way to avoid paying taxes. This has prompted a hardening stand on revenue leakages, as per a government official.

 

In July, the Central Board of Excise and Customs (CBEC) had asked its officers to go easy on taxpayers till GST’s teething problems were solved. But CBEC Chairperson Vanaja Sarna in a letter to his officers has said “sending out notices to those assessees under your jurisdiction who have failed to file returns may be considered.”

 

GST collections slowed to their lowest at Rs 83,346 crore in October as the integrated GST was used as credit and rates were revised downward, the report said.

 

The government official further said that reduction in the GST rates for more than 200 items last month might also affect collections. Fearing a slump in revenue collections, the GST Council on Saturday decided to implement the nationwide roll-out of the electronic way bill on interstate movements of goods from February 1 and for interstate carriage from June 1.

 

Source: MoneyControl.com

GST data: CBEC orders taxmen to intensify efforts against uncooperative taxpayers

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After receiving ground reports of difficulty faced by tax officials in collecting comparative data from unwilling assessees, the Central Board of Excise and Customs (CBEC) has written to all commissioners urging them to intensify their efforts and challenge the objections raised by taxpayers in sharing information.

After receiving ground reports of difficulty faced by tax officials in collecting comparative data from unwilling assessees, the Central Board of Excise and Customs (CBEC) has written to all commissioners urging them to intensify their efforts and challenge the objections raised by taxpayers in sharing information. As FE reported earlier, CBEC had asked tax commissioners to collect granular data of taxes paid and credit availed by assessees under the goods and services tax (GST) for the July-October period and compare the same with data from the corresponding period of last fiscal. This, the board hopes, will bring out any anomalies in tax payment and utilisation of input tax credits (ITC), including transitional credit, by taxpayers. “When ‘resourceful officers’ are instructed by the special secretary to get the requisite data using their unjustified pressure, he seems to have bureaucratic overreach. Tone and tenor of the letter is such, as if, CBEC has issued an indictment order against chartered accountants on a holiday. Under digital India programme, the government is spending billions to control tax terrorism by eliminating interface of tax officers with taxpayers, here we witness complete negation of such policies,” Rajat Mohan, partner at AMRG & Associates, said.

CBEC has mentioned certain objections raised by the taxpayers in sharing the required information and also suggested ways to counter such resistance. For instance, some assessees have claimed that their chartered accountant (CA) was out of station and hence data couldn’t be shared. In his letter, CBEC member John Joseph said that it was improbable for CAs to go on long leave in the month of December as they would be busy filing I-T returns, hence they should be contacted and data should be collected from them.

“The name of the CAs who are not cooperating with the department along with the name of the name of the companies being handled by them may be intimated to his office,” the board said in the latest missive to field staff.Further, some assessees have said that they come under the jurisdiction of the states’ administration and would not share data with central officials. Responding to this, the letter said: “The list of such assessees who refuse to part with the data, may be indicated and reported to this office. However, it is felt that if the officer is resourceful then he/she should be able to collect the data.”

While CBEC had earlier provided tax filing data collected through the summarised return GSTR-3b with all the commissionerates, it has now also provided them with information on transitional credit claimed by assessees through the TRAN-I forms. “Comparison of data should be possible now as you are being supplied with the GSTN data on trans credit. Please analyse the data, report discrepancies/disputed credit if any along with reasons for the same,” the letter said. Officials tasked with collecting data have said that since assessees are being asked for data informally without being under investigation, the taxpayers are within their right to refuse to share such information. This has presented a twin problem for officials tasked with the exercise, as assessees can’t be forced to share the information while the task itself requires substantial time.

On the basis of data shared with field formations, CBEC wants the top 100 assessees to be selected by each of the commissionerates based on central excise and service tax revenue of FY 17 for revenue analysis. Each official would be given a maximum of two taxpayers for detailed analysis. The analysis would be based on central GST, state GST, integrated GST and compensation cess paid by assessees against pre-GST revenue of the corresponding period. In cases where it is possible, the officials would also take VAT and CST revenue into account. Further, these will include the pattern and quantum of ITC availed and CGST utilised along with transitional credit availed in form TRAN I and its comparison with the pre-GST period. In their analysis, the officials must also note any unusual ITC claimed, which can be detected by comparing the TRAN 1 ITC availed with the average ITC balance during pre-GST. “This analysis should clearly bring out any reason for variation in total duty/tax payable during respective periods,” the official quoted above said.

Additionally, the board has directed the commissioners to collect data only in the excel format, without any change in the format provided by the department. The analysis of the data is to be submitted to the board, which will be taken up for discussion this Saturday when the revenue secretary meets state and central tax officials for a reviewing GST collections. A tax official said that the department wasn’t convinced about the validity of the ITC claims, which was one of the main reasons for lower GST mop-up in October. The department has earlier undertaken verification of large quantum of transitional credit — amounting to Rs.65,000 crore, claimed by assessees.

 

Source: Financial Express

FPIs pump over Rs 19,700 crore in November, highest in eight months

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After taking a break from buying into Indian equities in August and September, FPIs bought equities in abundance in November.

Foreign investors pumped over Rs 19,700 crore into the country’s stock markets in November, the highest in eight months, mainly due to government’s plan to recapitalise PSU banks and surge in India’s ranking in the World Bank’s ease of doing business.

In addition, such investors put in Rs 530 crore in the debt markets during the period under review.

According to depositories data, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) invested a net amount of Rs 19,728 crore in equities last month.

This is the highest net investment by FPIs since March, when they had poured in Rs 30,906 crore in the equity market.It has been a tremendous journey for the Indian equity markets in 2017. After taking a break from buying into Indian equities in August and September, FPIs bought equities in abundance in November.

The strong inflow could be largely attributed to the government’s decision to recapitalise public-sector banks, which is expected to enhance lending and propel economic growth, said Morningstar India’s senior analyst manager (research) Himanshu Srivastava.

“This is particularly seen as a positive step after the questions have been raised from various quarters on the government’s ability to effectively implement economic reforms. Further, the slow pace of economic growth was also believed to be due to rising non performing assets (NPAs) problem in public sector banks, hence this decision provided a much-needed impetus to FPIs to again look back at Indian equity space,” he added.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley had announced the PSU bank recapitalisation plan of Rs 2.11 trillion, out of which Rs 1.35 trillion will come from recapitalisation bonds, and the rest from markets and budgetary support.

Additionally, the news about India faring well in the World Bank’s Ease of Business index and a jump in core sector growth also turned the tide in India’s favour, Srivastava said.

India gained 30 places in the World Bank’s ease of doing business index for 2018 to 100th among 190 nations.

“These (bank’s recapitalisation plan and world bank’s ranking) and positive developments in the recent times provided a much-needed breather to FPIs who were concerned about the short-term impact of demonetisation and goods and services tax (GST) on the domestic economy and sluggish pace of economic recovery,” he added.

Yet another positive piece of news has come from Moody’s Investor Services, which upgraded its India rating by a notch to ‘Baa2’ from ‘Baa3’ with a stable outlook, citing improved economic growth prospects driven by the government reforms.
Overall, FPIs have invested Rs 53,800 crore in equities so far in 2017 and another Rs 1.46 lakh crore in debt markets.

GST return filings for October rise 11% to 4.4 million

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Around 56% of the registered taxpayers have filed their GSTR-3B returns for October by 20 November, says GSTN

Over 3.9 million assessees filed the summary return for September and over 2.8 million for August.

Taxpayer compliance under the goods and services tax (GST) system is steadily improving with 4.4 million assessees filing summary of the transactions made in October, an improvement of 11% from the filings reported for the previous month, said an official statement from GSTN, the company that processes tax returns.

The statement said the number of taxpayers filing their GSTR 3B returns showed a “marked improvement” with the highest number of assessees filing returns for October till 20th November 2017.

Around 56% of the registered taxpayers have filed their GSTR-3B returns for October by 20 November, it said. The “steady increase” in filings is encouraging, the statement said further, citing chairman Prakash Kumar.

“The trend of taxpayers filing their returns on the last day continues though. Taxpayers are urged to file their returns early to avoid last minute hassles” Kumar said.

Over 3.9 million assessees filed the summary return for September and over 2.8 million for August.

Close to 1.5 million taxpayers filed their returns on 20 November, the highest number of filings in a day.

Punjab topped the list of states in compliance. About 73% of taxpayers in Punjab filed their GSTR 3B returns for October by the deadline.

Federal indirect tax body, the GST Council, has taken a series of steps including deadline relaxations, waiver of late fee, suspension of invoice matching and simplification of forms to encourage voluntary compliance under the new indirect tax regime.

 

Source: Live Mint

India jumps 30 places on World Bank’s ease of doing business index, breaks into top 100

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The World Bank’s ease of doing business report showed that eight reforms were key in helping businesses in 2016/17. India is also among the 10 economies to have improved the most, alongside El Salvador, Malawi, Nigeria and Thailand.

Doing business in India became much easier over the past one year because of a raft of policy reforms, an annual World Bank index showed on Tuesday, in what is possibly a shot in the arm for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s efforts to win big-ticket investments.

For the first time, India jumped 30 places to break into the top 100 in the ease of doing business rankings for the year to June 2017. The 190-country index is an influential barometer of competitiveness among countries that likely also helps businesses make investment decisions.

India’s impressive performance was largely due to reforms in taxation, insolvency laws and access to credit, part of measures Prime Minister Modi’s government has pushed to boost investment and jobs that would help absorb a million people who join the workforce every month.

“India’s performance is not based on efforts of just one year but consistent efforts made over the last three years to continuously improve the regulatory environment of doing business,” Annette Dixon, vice president South Asia, told a press conference.

“It is the result of a number of reforms that the government has undertaken that India is becoming a preferred destination to do business.”

India saw improvements in six of 10 indicators, including on winning construction permits, enforcing contracts, paying taxes and resolving insolvency. It, however, slipped when it came to starting a business, getting an electricity connection, cross-border trade and registering property.

Underlining how reforms had helped India improve its overall ranking, the World Bank said the establishment of debt recovery tribunals reduced non-performing loans by 28% and lowered interest rates on larger loans, suggesting that faster processing of debt recovery cases cut the cost of credit.

India was also among the 10 economies to have improved the most, alongside El Salvador, Malawi, Nigeria and Thailand.

– Hindustan Times