Qatar economy resilient, continues to perform well, says Seetharaman

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Qatar’s economy has proven its resilience and continues to perform well amid the blockade, improving local liquidity and gaining the confidence of international investors, said Doha Bank CEO Dr R Seetharaman.

“The blockade (on Qatar by a quartet of nations) came as a rude shock to us. But Qatar has withstood… it has proven to be a resilient model. Qatar’s economy was performing around 2.5% last year.

This year we are not expecting less than 3.1% growth,” Seetharaman told Gulf Times in an interview.

He said Qatar improved local liquidity by disinvestment last year.

“If you look at Qatar economy, liquidity was under stress to start with. The government improved local liquidity. Now international investors have reposed confidence in Qatar. The banking system as a whole is improving.

“The loan to deposit ratio in the Qatari banking system has significantly improved and now stands at 112%. This is an improvement of the level, immediately post blockade, which was at 116%.”

Qatar’s banking sector had witnessed credit expansion of around 9%, the deposit book has grown of more than 10.4%, he noted.

He said in the days that followed the blockade, there were challenges in terms of international investors slowing down on Qatar.

“They were concerned about the Qatar economic momentum. Even the rating agencies looked sceptical, which explains the negative outlook on the sovereign.”

But, Seetharaman said, Qatar’s ‘AA’ rating, which is still very high, has not been challenged although the international rating agencies have changed the sovereign outlook to negative. The high rating (A) of Qatar’s banks is also not challenged.

Currently, Qatar holds Aa- by Fitch, AA- by S&P and Aa3 by Moody’s.

“With strong exports, positive economic outlook, and natural gas markets unaffected by the economic blockade, the overall growth for Qatar remains sustainable,” Seetharaman noted.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest World Economic Outlook revised up its forecast for world economic growth in 2018 and 2019, saying sweeping US tax cuts were likely to boost investment in the world’s largest economy and help its main trading partners.

Seetharaman also said new global forecast has a 3.9% growth this year and next. The advanced economies are expected to grow by 2.3% in 2018 and 2.2% in 2019.

The emerging and developing economies are expected to grow by 4.9% in 2018 and 5% in 2019.

India is projected to grow at 7.4% of its gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018 making it the fastest growing economy among emerging economies following last year’s slowdown due to demonetisation and the implementation of goods and services tax.

China, which is spearheading the ‘Belt and Road’ concept is expected to grow up to 6.6% this year, he added.

Source: Gulf Times

GST lends more weight to India’s 8% growth projection: S&P

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Calling GST as the most important structural reform till date by the Modi government, S&P Global Ratings today said the passage of the indirect tax law gives it additional conviction of India clocking 8 per cent growth in the next few years.

“India’s GST passage gives us additional conviction around our 8%-ish GDP growth forecast over the next few years,” it said in a report titled ‘Asia-Pacific steadies while China goes silent’.

The rating agency had last month projected India to clock a “steroid-free” growth of 8 per cent in coming years. “The GST passage is arguably the most important structural reform to date by the Modi government and will improve efficiency, cross-state trade and tax buoyancy,” it said today.

It saw a reasonably firm pick-up in Asia-Pacific’s macro momentum indicators, with pick-up in retail sales offering the clearest sign in most of the region’s economies. This, it said, stems from rising income, which in turn is part of the region’s evolving growth dynamics, with consumption playing a larger role.

S&P said China has been nudged up as it raised the GDP growth forecast by about a quarter percentage point in 2016 and 2017 to 6.6 per cent and 6.4 per cent, respectively, and has kept its 2018 forecast roughly unchanged at 6.1 per cent.

Japan’s second-quarter out turn was weaker than expected, it said, adding that its 0.7 per cent GDP growth forecast for 2016 looked like “a mild stretch at this point”.

In its ‘APAC Economic Snapshots — September 2016’ report, it had stated that India’s structural reforms agenda had maintained strong momentum and, most recently with the GST passage, should propel growth higher. “For India, we are still forecasting GDP growth at about 8 per cent over the next few years. Moreover, this is relatively high quality, steroid—free growth backed by a broadening consumption base,” S&P had said.

“Inflation remains a risk, given the large weights on food, fuel, and other volatile items in the Reserve Bank of India’s target basket,” S&P had said.

The latest gross domestic production (GDP) figures showed that India’s growth slowed to 7.1 per cent in the April-June quarter, from 7.9 per cent in January-March.

RBI has also said the near-term growth outlook for India seems brighter than last fiscal’s and the economy is likely to expand at 7.6 per cent in 2016-17.

Source: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/gst-lends-more-weight-to-indias-8-growth-projection-sp/article9208148.ece

S&P: Renewable energy biz high-growth area in India

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Renewable energy business is a high-growth area in India, though falling asset prices and competitive bidding for new power purchase agreements may lead to volatility in returns on investments, S&P Global Ratings said today.

 

“We believe the renewable energy business is a high-growth area in India, given the governments focus on increasing capacities for renewable energy and priority dispatch,” it said in a statement.

 

However, falling asset prices and competitive bidding for new power purchase agreements (PPAs) can expose renewable energy assets to volatility of returns on investments, it said.

 

It added that such assets also face greater volatility of cash flows due to seasonality and inherent uncertainty of wind/hydro/solar patterns, resulting in resource risks.

 

The agency further said that Tata Powers business position is unlikely to materially change after the acquisition of Welspun Renewable Energy.

 

S&P Global Ratings further said that its corporate credit rating on Tata Power Ltd (B+/Stable) is not immediately affected by the company’s acquisition of Welspun Renewable Energy for an enterprise value of Rs 92.49 billion.

 

Tata Power indicated that it intends to maintain leverage at the current improved levels post-acquisition through strategic measures.

 

Source: http://www.hindustantimes.com/business-newspaper/s-p-renewable-energy-biz-high-growth-area-in-india/story-d7BXtbQVS7YW2RWnGDIjgN.html