More than 90 days after the roll-out of the goods and services tax (GST), lenders are gravitating to sanctioning working capital loans, especially to micro and small units, against documents used in the new tax regime.
They are no longer looking at just sales of the units concerned to decide on loan sanctions.
Banks are looking at input credit in deciding how much working capital loans they should advance.
The country’s largest lender, State Bank of India, and Union Bank of India, also a public sector bank, have started giving loans, especially to micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) after assessing their input tax credit claims.
A public sector bank executive said the large number of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) had been included under the ambit of formal trade with the introduction of the GST.
SMEs are facing a working capital crunch because in the absence of proper financial returns, they are unable to access bank credit.
In the traditional route, banks make working capital assessments based on sales, as indicated in the balance sheet.
Besides this, entrepreneurs are facing a credit crunch because in the GST regime SMEs are entitled to input tax credit, and it is stretching their operating cycle.
A Punjab National Bank (PNB) official said the banking system is shifting to looking at the history of transactions such as GST credit-based decisions about credit, especially for SMEs.
SBI Chief General Manager (SME) V Ramling said using GST claims by banks would give SMEs the time to manage their working capital requirements till the time they got input tax credit. It will also help stabilise SMEs to run their operations without any hurdles.
SBI said the loan would be sanctioned outside Assessed Bank Finance (ABF) at 20 per cent of the existing fund-based working capital limit or 80 per cent of input tax claim due on purchases, whichever is lower.
Units and companies seeking a loan under the product need to give a certificate from their chartered accountant, confirming the input credit claims.
According to IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook, India’s growth slowed in recent quarters due to the temporary disruptions from the currency exchange initiative– demonetisation and GST.
The IMF has suggested a three- pronged approach for structural reform in India that includes addressing the corporate and banking sector weaknesses, continued fiscal consolidation through revenue measure, and improving the efficiency of labour and product markets.
Deputy Director Asia Pacific Department of IMF, Kenneth Kang, said the favorable outlook for Asia was an important opportunity for India to push forward with difficult reforms.
“As such, there should be three policy priorities in the area of structural reforms,” Kang, Deputy Director Asia pacific Department IMF told reporters at a news conference here.
“First priority is to address the corporate and banking sector weaknesses, by accelerating the resolution of non- performing loans, rebuilding the capital buffers for the public sector banks, and enhancing banks’ debt recovery mechanisms,” he said.Secondly, Kang said, India should continue with the fiscal consolidation through revenue measures, as well as further reductions in subsidies.
“And lastly, it’s to maintain the strong momentum for structural reforms in addressing the infrastructure gaps, improving the efficiency of labour and product markets as well as furthering agricultural reforms,” said Kang.
Responding to a question on labour market reforms, Kang suggested reforming the market regulations in order to create a more favorable environment for investment and employment.
“There is a need to reduce the number of labour laws which currently number around 250 across the central and the state level,” said Kang.He said India should also focus on closing the gender gap which may help a great deal in boosting the employment opportunities for women in India.
“Improvements in infrastructure can be one important way to facilitate the entry of women into the labour force. But in addition, there is a need to strengthening the implementation of specific gender regulations, as well as to invest more in gender-specific training and education,” Kang said.
According to IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook, India’s growth slowed in recent quarters due to the temporary disruptions from the currency exchange initiative– demonetisation– that took place in November 2016, and the recent roll-out of the Goods and Services Tax (GST).
The report, however, went on to say that the growth in 2017 was revised downward to reflect the recent slowdown, but is expected to accelerate in the medium term as these temporary disruptions fade.
Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India has published draft rules dealing with insolvency resolution process of individuals and firms on its website . The existing insolvency and bankruptcy code, at present, applies only to corporate defaulters
The government on Tuesday expanded the scope of the new insolvency rules to bring individual businesses under its purview.
On Tuesday, the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India (IBBI) published the draft rules dealing with insolvency resolution process of individuals and firms on its website (www.ibbi.gov.in) ; public comments can be submitted till 31 October.
Once notified, even individual businesses such as proprietorships will come under the bankruptcy regime. This will enable an orderly bankruptcy resolution within the purview of a transparent rules-based regime. The existing insolvency and bankruptcy code, at present, applies only to corporate defaulters.
“These rules shall apply to matters relating to the insolvency resolution process for individuals and firms under Part III of the code,” said the draft rules issued by IBBI.
Part III of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016, deals with insolvency and bankruptcy of individuals and partnership firms.
According to a statement issued by IBBI on Tuesday, the draft rules and regulations have been submitted by a working group which was formed to recommend the strategy and approach for implementation of the provisions of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016, dealing with insolvency and bankruptcy in respect of guarantors to corporate debtors, i.e., personal guarantors, and individuals having businesses.
“So far, the rules were only in respect of the Corporate Insolvency Resolution Process (CIRP) and the rules concerning individuals and partnership firms were yet to come,” said Satwinder Singh, partner at Vaish Associates, a law firm. “The jurisdiction for corporate, companies, limited liability partnership (LLP) lies before the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) and with the Debt Recovery Tribunal (DRT) for individuals and firms. The provisions relating to insolvency and bankruptcy of individuals and firms had not been notified earlier, so now the IBBI has come out with the draft rules.”
Harsh Pais, partner at law firm Trilegal, said, “It is a positive step towards consolidating the bankruptcy regime for individuals, for whom there was no systematic approach previously. For companies, at least there was recourse to the Companies Act, whereas for individuals there were only some archaic laws from the early 1900s, which were hardly relied upon in practice.”
Most of the small and medium enterprises (SMEs) take the legal form of either partnership or proprietorship firms. Though the loans are smaller in value, SME borrowers far outnumber companies, resulting in their borrowings exerting a significant influence in the financial sector’s stability.
Bankruptcy resolution is high on the agenda of the central government, which is keen to improve the ease of doing business in India and attract more private investments from domestic and overseas sources. An efficient exit route from failed projects is an essential factor that lenders consider before participating in projects.
Rates have dipped to a third to 6 per cent from 9-18 per cent about 6-9 months ago.
Interest rates that money lenders charged borrowers hardly budged for decades irrespective of policy decisions. But even that is collapsing faster than what it is in the formal banking system, thanks to the implementation of Goods and Services Tax.
Borrowing in the informal market is no more lucrative.
Lenders who fund small traders and merchants have lowered their rates to just a third of what they were charging, but still the demand is not showing up.
Rates have dipped to a third to 6 per cent from 9-18 per cent about 6-9 months ago, said two dealers aware of the market dynamics.
“Those businessmen have now limited options to run operations in cash especially after GST implementation and demonetisation,” said a textile business owner, who did not want to be identified.
“From a local politician to an industrialist or local trader whoever has additional unaccounted cash are normally the lenders in this informal loan market.”
A huge army of businessmen borrowed in an informal market from money lenders to avoid getting trapped by the banking system and the tax department. This was known as ‘Kachha Credit’ among practitioners.
With the implementation of GST which produces a chain of transactions till it reaches the ultimate consumer, merchants have little scope to escape accounting for their trades.
So, instead of funding their purchases through informal credit at high rates which was beneficial since it allowed escaping the tax net, they are choosing to fund businesses through formal credit. To keep businesses running, money lenders have lowered rates.
Since the tax department is keeping close watch on businesses, all traders preferred anonymity. This market is known as a plat form for lending and borrowing unaccounted or untaxed money without any collateral. Traders now shy away from availing such credit amid cash squeeze triggered by reform measures like GST and demonetisation. Sometimes, people take highly leveraged positions borrowing such money, which a bank would have declined.
A garment trader who may be eligible to borrow say, Rs 10 lakh in the absence of creditworthy balance sheet, can take a loan up to Rs 50 lakh due to personal knowledge of businesses, dealers said. The practice is prevalent in the garment industry.
Mumbai’s Bhiwandi, a business centre, used to be the hotbed of it. It has died down after the Central Value Added Tax, a central government tax levy introduced by Vajpayee led NDA, was introduced.
The reserves are hitting the psychological threshold also because benign current account deficits over the last few quarters had allowed RBI to use less of the reserves to finance it.
India’s foreign exchange reserves have climbed tantalizingly close to the $400-billion mark on September 1 on the back of strong foreign portfolio investments into the Indian market, especially the debt segment
The reserves are hitting the psychological threshold also because benign current account deficits over the last few quarters had allowed RBI to use less of the reserves to finance it.
To be sure, the latest $100 billion addition to the reserves has taken close to 10s years. The $300 billion mark was reached in February 2008, while the previous $100 billion was accumulated in a span of just eleven months.
While the rupee remains strong against the dollar at levels of 64 having appreciated 6% so far in 2017, few would have anticipated this strength, especially after the free fall of the currency in mid-2013 when it slipped all the way to 68.85 against the greenback (the forex reserves had plunged by more than $17 billion during this period).
The other critical period for the reserves and currency was in 2008, during the financial crisis when the currency lost almost 25% of its value between May and November. In this period, the reserves fell by a little over $70 billion to $245.8 billion.
Currently, the reserves take care of approximately 12 months of imports; in the past the reserves have typically covered seven to eight months of imports. Interestingly, India has seen the third-highest reserves accretion globally after Switzerland and China, so far in 2017.
According to Indranil Sengupta, chief economist at Bank of India Merrill Lynch, RBI has been intervening fairly aggressively in the forex market and might continue to do so if the dollar weakens but perhaps less so if the greenback was to strengthen.
After a brief overnight pause, the rupee was again caught in a downward spiral and slipped by 12 paise to 64.12 against the US dollar on Thursday on fresh demand for the American currency from banks and importers amid persistent foreign capital outflows. Foreign portfolio investors sold shares worth a net Rs 827 crore on the day.
Meanwhile, India’s CAD, which stood at 0.7% in the fourth quarter of last fiscal is expected to widen sharply to 3% in Q1FY18 due to a sharp deterioration in the merchandise trade deficit. According to Sonal Varma, chief economist at Nomura, the low commodity prices in the last two years have resulted in the CAD narrowing to about 1% of GDP. “With commodity prices marginally higher and a cyclical recovery expected in coming quarters, we expect the current account deficit to widen to a steady state of around 1.5-2.0% of GDP (for FY18),” Varma said.
Currently, as the central bank continues to shore up the reserves, it appears to be depending more on forward purchases than the spot market. This is due to the abundant liquidity in the system which prevents excessive action in the spot market.
MV Srinivasan, vice-president, Mecklai Financial Services believes the RBI is attempting to prevent any appreciation of the rupee beyond 63.80 levels. “The central bank is trying to rein in the excess liquidity in the system through OMO sales and dollar purchases in the spot will counter these measures,” he says.
Srinivasan believes that if the US Federal Reserve begins to reduce its balance sheet size, there could be forex outflows following which the RBI might intervene to stabilise the markets. Net portfolio inflows to the India’s bond and stock markets have been to the tune of $26.7 billion so far in 2017.
The micro-finance industry is rebounding, real rural incomes are rising and unemployment is falling, according to brokerage Motilal Oswal Securities and an Indian unit of HSBC Holdings in analysis that contrasts to the distress that’s swept the farming sector
India’s vast rural hinterland, which makes up 70% of the country’s population, is showing signs of recovery from last year’s cash crunch, boosting optimism that increased spending will help the broader economy regain its vigour.
The micro-finance industry is rebounding, real rural incomes are rising and unemployment is falling, according to brokerage Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd and an Indian unit of HSBC Holdings Plc in analysis that contrasts to the distress that’s swept the farming sector.
“We believe repayments and improved collection trends have increased the confidence of companies to start disbursing loans at a healthy pace again,” Mumbai-based Alpesh Mehta and colleagues wrote in a report from Motilal Oswal.
India’s micro-finance industry, which provides small loans to entrepreneurs and business owners who have little collateral, was slammed when the government withdrew high-denomination bank notes from circulation late last year in a bid to stamp out corruption. And while farmers have taken to the streets across India to protest plunging food prices, labourers who get paid a wage to work the land have actually seen their incomes rise after last year’s good monsoon, the HSBC economists wrote.
Loan collection rates in Uttar Pradesh, India’s largest and most populous state, are largely back at about 98% levels, up from less than 50% after demonetisation, Mehta, Piran Engineer, and Subham Banka said in their 3 July note. Other major states such as Karnataka are displaying “much improved collection trends,” they said.
Micro-finance disbursements, which grew 13% last year compared with 80% the prior year, are expected to return to pre-ban levels in three to six months, according to Motilal Oswal.
Gold loan company Manappuram Finance Ltd has risen 68% from its low after demonetisation in November and Bharat Financial Inclusion Ltd, India’s largest listed micro-finance firm, has rebounded 64% over the same time frame.
However, the state of Maharashtra, home to India’s financial capital, Mumbai, is lagging other states and continues to face delinquency pressures, with about 20% of loans unpaid 90 days past due, according to Motilal Oswal.
Interactions with micro-finance companies reveal no expectation of disruption from the rise of farm loan waivers in Indian states but instead a focus on the effects of demonetisation, the report said. Microfinance Institutions Network—India’s largest group of microfinance firms—reported that “demonetization severely impacted the micro-finance business in multiple ways including slowing down of growth due to non-availability of cash for a few months.”
Motilal intends to observe delinquency trends for a few more quarters before reaching conclusions over the impact of waivers on micro-finance. Maharashtra, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh have all announced, waiver programs.
The rise in credit growth at the micro-finance level is complemented by a rise in rural incomes and purchasing power, according to HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Pvt. Ltd.
“Macro indicators have improved” in rural India, HSBC economists Pranjul Bhandari, Aayushi Chaudhury, and Dhiraj Nim said in their 10 July note. The plunge in inflation has helped boost annual real income growth to just under 4% from contracting levels a year ago while rural unemployment has sunk from about 9% last September to around 4%, according to HSBC.
Normal rains so far in 2017 and a bumper crop in 2016 after a two-year drought have generated more jobs for rural Indians who work the land—some 70% of rural households who are “landless, according to HSBC.
That’s help pushed up two-wheeler sales and the production of consumer non-durables in this segment, according to the HSBC report. Shares of companies with substantial rural customer bases are experiencing steady growth.
While falling farm prices have hit many rural Indians hard, they have also boosted purchasing power and consumption among the population which could help a broader recovery in the Indian economy that’s suffering from a slowdown in growth, soured loans and weaker manufacturing sector.
Tough stance taken by govt, RBI makes borrowers cautious
Indian banks are beginning to spot a welcome change in their customers’ behaviour: borrowers who have seen their accounts classified as stressed or non-performing are approaching the lenders with proposals to resolve such accounts in a time-bound manner.
The tough stance taken by the central government and the Reserve Bank of India to end the festering bad loan crisis in the Indian banking sector has caught many borrowers by surprise and they are scrambling to put together resolution plans to avoid harsher penalties including insolvency proceedings, bankers said. Even a couple of months ago, it was difficult to get these clients to the negotiation table.
“I can definitely say that we are in a much better position than even six months ago. We are seeing traction from a section of our borrowers to come up with proposals for resolution of stressed accounts,” said Rajkiran Rai G, managing director and CEO, Union Bank of India. “However, it is too early to say if this is the end of the problem. We will have to see how the discussions shape up,” he added.
Borrowers with outstanding amounts between Rs 500-1,500 crore are the most active in trying to resolve their stressed accounts, and they are looking at various options including scouting for investors and sale of non-core assets, two senior bankers with state-run banks said on conditions of anonymity. A large number of these borrowers are from the steel, power and telecom sectors. Some of the larger corporates with outstanding amounts between Rs 1,500-5,000 crore have also taken initiative to resolve their stressed accounts. On an average, these account for about 50% of the current gross non-performing assets of the banking system, the bankers said.
In June, the RBI’s Internal Advisory Committee (IAC) had said 12 accounts totaling about 25% of the current gross NPA of the banking system would qualify for immediate reference under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC). At present, proceedings against all the 12 accounts are on in various benches of the National Company Law Tribunal across the country. For accounts that do not qualify under the above criterion, IAC had recommended that banks should finalise a resolution plan within six months. “In cases where a viable resolution is not agreed upon within six months, banks should be required to file for insolvency proceedings under IBC,” the RBI had said.
More than 90 days after the roll-out of the goods and services tax (GST), lenders are gravitating to sanctioning working capital loans, especially to micro and small units, against documents used in the new tax regime.
