Foreign investors pump $3 billion into capital markets, forex at record high in January

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Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have invested a phenomenal $3 billion (close to Rs 18,000 crore) in India’s capital markets this month on expectations of high yields as corporate earnings are expected to pick up with the economy gathering momentum after the slowdown due to the chaotic implementation of GST.

The sharp increase in inflows comes after an outflow of over Rs 3,500 crore by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) from the capital markets in December, data compiled by depositories shows. According to market analysts money pumped in by FPIs has played a key role in fuelling the bull run in the stock markets that saw both the Sensex and Nifty on a record breaking spree in recent weeks.

FPIs infused a net amount to the tune of Rs 11,759 crore in stocks and Rs 6,127 crore in debt during January 1-25 — translating into net inflows of Rs 17,866 crore. For the entire 2017, FPIs invested a collective amount of Rs 2 lakh crore in the country’s equity and debt markets.

The inflow in the current month can be attributed to anticipation of earnings recovery and attractive yields which is expected to further strengthen inflow from foreign investors in the current financial year, said Dinesh Rohira, CEO of 5nance, an online platform providing financial planning services.

However, Quantum MF Fund Manager-Fixed Income Pankaj Pathak believes that FPIs may not be able to repeat this showing in 2018 as withdrawal of liquidity and rate hikes in developed economies pick up. This would provide them with alternative avenues of investment.

The FPI investments have also helped to bolster the country’s foreign exchange reserves which touched an all-time high of USD 414.784 billion in the week to January 19, Reserve Bank data showed. The RBI data showed that the forex reserves rose by USD 959.1 million to touch a record high during the reporting week. In the previous week, the reserves had touched USD 413.825 billion after it rose by USD 2.7 billion.

The reserves had crossed the USD 400-billion mark for the first time in the week to September 8, 2017 but have since been fluctuating. But for the past four weeks the figure has shown a continuous rise. Higher foreign exchange reserves lead to a stronger rupee which in turn reduces the cost of imports as fewer rupees have to be paid to buy the same amount of dollars to pay for items such as crude oil.

A higher foreign exchange kitty also provides a comfortable cushion to finance imports especially at a time when crude prices are shooting up in the international market and the country’s trade deficit has been growing. However, while FPI inflows add to the forex reserves they are considered “hot money” as they can leave Indian shores at short notice and this could send the rupee into a tailspin.

A senior finance ministry official said that foreign direct investment (FDI) is a more stable source of funding for the economy and since it also creates jobs and incomes the government is keen to see an increase in such investments. The Prime Minister’s trip to Davos was aimed at achieving this goal, he pointed out. He said that the government has been working on the ease of doing business which has seen a sharp increase in FDI inflows and this policy will continue in the forthcoming budget. At the same time the government is keen FPI inflows are not disrupted due to tax levies on stocks that create uncertainties, he added.

 

Source: Business Today

Foreign investors pump $3 billion into capital markets, forex at record high in January

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Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have invested a phenomenal $3 billion (close to Rs 18,000 crore) in India’s capital markets this month on expectations of high yields as corporate earnings are expected to pick up with the economy gathering momentum after the slowdown due to the chaotic implementation of GST.

 

The sharp increase in inflows comes after an outflow of over Rs 3,500 crore by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) from the capital markets in December, data compiled by depositories shows. According to market analysts money pumped in by FPIs has played a key role in fuelling the bull run in the stock markets that saw both the Sensex and Nifty on a record breaking spree in recent weeks.

 

FPIs infused a net amount to the tune of Rs 11,759 crore in stocks and Rs 6,127 crore in debt during January 1-25 — translating into net inflows of Rs 17,866 crore. For the entire 2017, FPIs invested a collective amount of Rs 2 lakh crore in the country’s equity and debt markets.

 

The inflow in the current month can be attributed to anticipation of earnings recovery and attractive yields which is expected to further strengthen inflow from foreign investors in the current financial year, said Dinesh Rohira, CEO of 5nance, an online platform providing financial planning services.

 

However, Quantum MF Fund Manager-Fixed Income Pankaj Pathak believes that FPIs may not be able to repeat this showing in 2018 as withdrawal of liquidity and rate hikes in developed economies pick up. This would provide them with alternative avenues of investment.

 

The FPI investments have also helped to bolster the country’s foreign exchange reserves which touched an all-time high of USD 414.784 billion in the week to January 19, Reserve Bank data showed. The RBI data showed that the forex reserves rose by USD 959.1 million to touch a record high during the reporting week. In the previous week, the reserves had touched USD 413.825 billion after it rose by USD 2.7 billion.

 

The reserves had crossed the USD 400-billion mark for the first time in the week to September 8, 2017 but have since been fluctuating. But for the past four weeks the figure has shown a continuous rise. Higher foreign exchange reserves lead to a stronger rupee which in turn reduces the cost of imports as fewer rupees have to be paid to buy the same amount of dollars to pay for items such as crude oil.

 

A higher foreign exchange kitty also provides a comfortable cushion to finance imports especially at a time when crude prices are shooting up in the international market and the country’s trade deficit has been growing. However, while FPI inflows add to the forex reserves they are considered “hot money” as they can leave Indian shores at short notice and this could send the rupee into a tailspin.

 

A senior finance ministry official said that foreign direct investment (FDI) is a more stable source of funding for the economy and since it also creates jobs and incomes the government is keen to see an increase in such investments. The Prime Minister’s trip to Davos was aimed at achieving this goal, he pointed out. He said that the government has been working on the ease of doing business which has seen a sharp increase in FDI inflows and this policy will continue in the forthcoming budget. At the same time the government is keen FPI inflows are not disrupted due to tax levies on stocks that create uncertainties, he added.

 

Source: Business Today

FPIs pump over Rs 19,700 crore in November, highest in eight months

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After taking a break from buying into Indian equities in August and September, FPIs bought equities in abundance in November.

Foreign investors pumped over Rs 19,700 crore into the country’s stock markets in November, the highest in eight months, mainly due to government’s plan to recapitalise PSU banks and surge in India’s ranking in the World Bank’s ease of doing business.

In addition, such investors put in Rs 530 crore in the debt markets during the period under review.

According to depositories data, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) invested a net amount of Rs 19,728 crore in equities last month.

This is the highest net investment by FPIs since March, when they had poured in Rs 30,906 crore in the equity market.It has been a tremendous journey for the Indian equity markets in 2017. After taking a break from buying into Indian equities in August and September, FPIs bought equities in abundance in November.

The strong inflow could be largely attributed to the government’s decision to recapitalise public-sector banks, which is expected to enhance lending and propel economic growth, said Morningstar India’s senior analyst manager (research) Himanshu Srivastava.

“This is particularly seen as a positive step after the questions have been raised from various quarters on the government’s ability to effectively implement economic reforms. Further, the slow pace of economic growth was also believed to be due to rising non performing assets (NPAs) problem in public sector banks, hence this decision provided a much-needed impetus to FPIs to again look back at Indian equity space,” he added.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley had announced the PSU bank recapitalisation plan of Rs 2.11 trillion, out of which Rs 1.35 trillion will come from recapitalisation bonds, and the rest from markets and budgetary support.

Additionally, the news about India faring well in the World Bank’s Ease of Business index and a jump in core sector growth also turned the tide in India’s favour, Srivastava said.

India gained 30 places in the World Bank’s ease of doing business index for 2018 to 100th among 190 nations.

“These (bank’s recapitalisation plan and world bank’s ranking) and positive developments in the recent times provided a much-needed breather to FPIs who were concerned about the short-term impact of demonetisation and goods and services tax (GST) on the domestic economy and sluggish pace of economic recovery,” he added.

Yet another positive piece of news has come from Moody’s Investor Services, which upgraded its India rating by a notch to ‘Baa2’ from ‘Baa3’ with a stable outlook, citing improved economic growth prospects driven by the government reforms.
Overall, FPIs have invested Rs 53,800 crore in equities so far in 2017 and another Rs 1.46 lakh crore in debt markets.

India should prioritise public banking sector reforms: IMF

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Country's growth is expected to accelerate in the medium-term as temporary disruptions due to demonetization and GST.
Country’s growth is expected to accelerate in the medium-term as temporary disruptions due to demonetization and GST.

India must prioritise implementation of public banking sector structural reforms, enhance the efficiency of labour and product markets, and modernise agriculture sector to accelerate its growth, the IMF said Friday.

The country’s growth is expected to accelerate in the medium-term as temporary disruptions due to demonetisation and the Goods and Services Tax (GST) fade, the International Monetary Fund said in its Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook Update.

The economic growth slowed in India in recent quarters due to the temporary disruptions from the currency exchange initiative demonetisation that took place in November 2016, and the recent rollout of the GST, it said.

 

The GST is a landmark tax reform that should help unify the domestic market and encourage businesses to move from the informal to the formal sector, the IMF noted.

Inflation has been low compared with the mid-point target in recent months, driven by lower food prices, allowing the central bank to cut its policy rate in August, it added.

“Growth in 2017 was revised downward to reflect the recent slowdown, but is expected to accelerate in the medium term as these temporary disruptions fade,” it said.

In India, growth was revised down to 6.7 per cent in FY2017 and to 7.4 per cent in FY2018.

“Growth will be underpinned by private consumption, which has benefited from low food and energy prices, as well as civil service allowance increases,” IMF said.

Headline inflation is projected to stay close to the midpoint of the target band (4 per cent 2 per cent) in FY2017, while moving to the upper half of the target band in the medium term as food prices recover, it said.

The current account deficit should remain modest, financed by robust foreign direct investment inflows, it noted.

According to the outlook, in India, priorities should be strengthening public banks loss-absorbing buffers, implementing further public banking sector structural reforms, and enhancing public banks debt recovery mechanisms.

“Reform efforts should aim at tackling supply bottlenecks, enhancing the efficiency of labour and product markets, and modernising the agricultural sector,” the IMF said, adding that labour market reforms should be a priority to facilitate greater and higher-quality job creation.

 

Source: Deccan Chronicle

FDI likely to rise further after GST: Moody’s

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FDI in India grew by 18% during 2016 to touch $46 billion, data released by the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion showed.

India is likely see increased foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on the back of reforms such as introduction of the goods and services tax and the bankruptcy code, international ratings agency Moody’s said in a report on Monday.

“Combined with reforms such as the introduction of a goods and services tax, which lowers the cost and complexity of doing business, and a simplified and clarified bankruptcy code, FDI is likely to rise further,” the agency said in its report on how structural reforms by Asia Pacific sovereigns could become more effective from stronger global demand.

In India, Moody’s said, the government has raised ceilings for authorised FDI in a number of sectors. “FDI has already increased substantially, albeit from a low base,” the report said.FDI in India grew by 18% during 2016 to touch $46 billion, data released by the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion showed.

The Narendra Modi government has liberalised FDI framework for a number of sectors including insurance, defence and civil aviation and also taken steps towards the ease of doing business. Moody’s said the positive economic impact of India and Indonesia’s measures to attract higher levels of FDI, combined with steps to improve business conditions, are likely to be more apparent in a stronger global macroeconomic environment. The agency has maintained India’s sovereign rating at Baa3 positive.

“India and Indonesia’s governments have both implemented reforms over the past few years to improve the overall business climate and, more specifically, to attract FDI,” Moody’s said, adding that a robust global environment is likely to amplify the positive impact of the reforms on the two countries’ attractiveness to foreign investors.

Moody’s Investors Service said the strengthening in global demand since the end of last year has buoyed Asia Pacific’s trade-reliant economies, but added that faster export growth has yet to feed into a sustainable acceleration in output growth.

FPI inflows: India’s forex reserves all set to hit whopping $400 bn mark; here is how long it took and why

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The reserves are hitting the psychological threshold also because benign current account deficits over the last few quarters had allowed RBI to use less of the reserves to finance it.
India’s foreign exchange reserves have climbed tantalizingly close to the $400-billion mark on September 1 on the back of strong foreign portfolio investments into the Indian market, especially the debt segment

The reserves are hitting the psychological threshold also because benign current account deficits over the last few quarters had allowed RBI to use less of the reserves to finance it.

To be sure, the latest $100 billion addition to the reserves has taken close to 10s years. The $300 billion mark was reached in February 2008, while the previous $100 billion was accumulated in a span of just eleven months.

While the rupee remains strong against the dollar at levels of 64 having appreciated 6% so far in 2017, few would have anticipated this strength, especially after the free fall of the currency in mid-2013 when it slipped all the way to 68.85 against the greenback (the forex reserves had plunged by more than $17 billion during this period).

The other critical period for the reserves and currency was in 2008, during the financial crisis when the currency lost almost 25% of its value between May and November. In this period, the reserves fell by a little over $70 billion to $245.8 billion.

Currently, the reserves take care of approximately 12 months of imports; in the past the reserves have typically covered seven to eight months of imports. Interestingly, India has seen the third-highest reserves accretion globally after Switzerland and China, so far in 2017.

According to Indranil Sengupta, chief economist at Bank of India Merrill Lynch, RBI has been intervening fairly aggressively in the forex market and might continue to do so if the dollar weakens but perhaps less so if the greenback was to strengthen.

After a brief overnight pause, the rupee was again caught in a downward spiral and slipped by 12 paise to 64.12 against the US dollar on Thursday on fresh demand for the American currency from banks and importers amid persistent foreign capital outflows. Foreign portfolio investors sold shares worth a net Rs 827 crore on the day.

Meanwhile, India’s CAD, which stood at 0.7% in the fourth quarter of last fiscal is expected to widen sharply to 3% in Q1FY18 due to a sharp deterioration in the merchandise trade deficit. According to Sonal Varma, chief economist at Nomura, the low commodity prices in the last two years have resulted in the CAD narrowing to about 1% of GDP. “With commodity prices marginally higher and a cyclical recovery expected in coming quarters, we expect the current account deficit to widen to a steady state of around 1.5-2.0% of GDP (for FY18),” Varma said.

Currently, as the central bank continues to shore up the reserves, it appears to be depending more on forward purchases than the spot market. This is due to the abundant liquidity in the system which prevents excessive action in the spot market.

MV Srinivasan, vice-president, Mecklai Financial Services believes the RBI is attempting to prevent any appreciation of the rupee beyond 63.80 levels. “The central bank is trying to rein in the excess liquidity in the system through OMO sales and dollar purchases in the spot will counter these measures,” he says.

Srinivasan believes that if the US Federal Reserve begins to reduce its balance sheet size, there could be forex outflows following which the RBI might intervene to stabilise the markets. Net portfolio inflows to the India’s bond and stock markets have been to the tune of $26.7 billion so far in 2017.

Source: Financial Express

SEBI warns of rising external debt risks as masala bonds surge

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The rupee-denominated bonds, popularly known as masala bonds, are likely to add to the nation’s external liabilities even if they don’t hold any risks to currency movement, a top SEBI official said.

The rupee-denominated bonds, popularly known as masala bonds, are likely to add to the nation’s external liabilities even if they don’t hold any risks to currency movement, a top Sebi official said on Wednesday.

“When money flows into the country from foreign investments, we are attracting some risks and it is not currency risk alone. Masala bonds don’t hold any currency risks but at the same time, the external liability of the country goes up. This needs to be kept in mind,” Sebi whole- time member G Mahalingam said here.

“And a huge amount of foreign inflows at a time when the currency has been substantially appreciating is something the regulators must be concerned about,” he said, addressing a capital markets summit organised by industry lobby Ficci.

The masala bonds are debt instruments through which designated domestic entities can raise funds by accessing overseas capital markets, while the bond investors hold the currency risk. In fact, the World Bank arm IFC thus far has raised the largest amount through this instrument.

According to some estimates, the masala bonds accounted for 39 per cent of the total ECBs of USD 7.39 billion reported by the Reserve Bank in the fourth quarter of FY17, while the approvals for the same rose to USD 2.9 billion over USD 0.8 billion in the third quarter.

For the full fiscal of 2017, the aggregate stood at USD 4.6 billion, according to a recent Icra data.

Of the total masala bonds of USD 4.59 billion approved during FY17, 55 per cent were for onward lending in domestic markets, 24 per cent for refinancing of the rupee loans and 14 per cent were for general corporate purposes.

Mahalingam said the Sebi is in advanced stage of talks with other regulators on allowing participation of FPIs in commodity derivatives market.

On the mutual fund industry, he said the sector should try to bring down its total expense ratio which is far higher than the comfort level. “It is time for mutual funds to shrink its margins attract more retail investors.”

He said benchmarking of returns will be healthy step for the overall industry.

Source: MoneyControl.com