Qatar economy resilient, continues to perform well, says Seetharaman

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Qatar’s economy has proven its resilience and continues to perform well amid the blockade, improving local liquidity and gaining the confidence of international investors, said Doha Bank CEO Dr R Seetharaman.

“The blockade (on Qatar by a quartet of nations) came as a rude shock to us. But Qatar has withstood… it has proven to be a resilient model. Qatar’s economy was performing around 2.5% last year.

This year we are not expecting less than 3.1% growth,” Seetharaman told Gulf Times in an interview.

He said Qatar improved local liquidity by disinvestment last year.

“If you look at Qatar economy, liquidity was under stress to start with. The government improved local liquidity. Now international investors have reposed confidence in Qatar. The banking system as a whole is improving.

“The loan to deposit ratio in the Qatari banking system has significantly improved and now stands at 112%. This is an improvement of the level, immediately post blockade, which was at 116%.”

Qatar’s banking sector had witnessed credit expansion of around 9%, the deposit book has grown of more than 10.4%, he noted.

He said in the days that followed the blockade, there were challenges in terms of international investors slowing down on Qatar.

“They were concerned about the Qatar economic momentum. Even the rating agencies looked sceptical, which explains the negative outlook on the sovereign.”

But, Seetharaman said, Qatar’s ‘AA’ rating, which is still very high, has not been challenged although the international rating agencies have changed the sovereign outlook to negative. The high rating (A) of Qatar’s banks is also not challenged.

Currently, Qatar holds Aa- by Fitch, AA- by S&P and Aa3 by Moody’s.

“With strong exports, positive economic outlook, and natural gas markets unaffected by the economic blockade, the overall growth for Qatar remains sustainable,” Seetharaman noted.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest World Economic Outlook revised up its forecast for world economic growth in 2018 and 2019, saying sweeping US tax cuts were likely to boost investment in the world’s largest economy and help its main trading partners.

Seetharaman also said new global forecast has a 3.9% growth this year and next. The advanced economies are expected to grow by 2.3% in 2018 and 2.2% in 2019.

The emerging and developing economies are expected to grow by 4.9% in 2018 and 5% in 2019.

India is projected to grow at 7.4% of its gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018 making it the fastest growing economy among emerging economies following last year’s slowdown due to demonetisation and the implementation of goods and services tax.

China, which is spearheading the ‘Belt and Road’ concept is expected to grow up to 6.6% this year, he added.

Source: Gulf Times

GST mop up could top Rs 1 trillion a month post anti-evasion steps

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Highlights
Once the GST return filing process stabilises, the DGARM will be put to action for 360 degree profiling and matching the database of people filing GST with I-T returns filed
Officials said the revenue estimates for next fiscal are conservative and could go up depending on enforcement actions taken by the government

Revenues from the Goods and Services Tax could cross Rs 1 lakh crore a month towards the end of next fiscal once anti-evasion measures like matching of tax data and e-way bill are put in place, finance ministry officials said on Tuesday.

Once the GST return filing process stabilises completely, the Directorate General of Analytics and Risk Management (DGARM) will be put to action for 360 degree profiling and matching the database of people filing GST with Income Tax returns filed, they said.

The government has budgeted about Rs 7.44 lakh crore from GST in the 2018-19 fiscal beginning April 1. The estimated collection for 8 months (July-February) of the current fiscal is Rs 4.44 lakh crore. The March collection will take place in April, the start of new financial year, 2018-19.

Officials said the revenue estimates for next fiscal are conservative and could go up depending on enforcement actions taken by the government.

Collections under the GST, implemented from July 1 last year, were over Rs 95,000 crore for the first month, while in August the figure was just over Rs 91,000 crore. In September, it was over Rs 92,150 crore, October (Rs 83,000 crore), November (Rs 80,808 crore) and December (Rs 86,703 crore).

As of December 2017, 98 lakh businesses were registered under the GST regime.

“We will soon start matching of the turnover shown in GST returns with the income returns filed with the I-T department. It could begin by second half of next financial year,” a senior finance ministry official said.

“Once these measures are put in place, there is no reason why GST revenues would not average Rs 1 lakh crore every month,” he added.

Another official said that the focus of the department will also be on plugging the gaps in the gold and jewellery industry.

“Gold imports have been rising every month despite a 10 per cent customs duty. But where is this imported gold channelled to? With GST in place, the revenue authorities now have the power to seek details about end supplies,” the official said.

Import of gold attracts a 10 per cent basic customs duty. On top of that, a 12.5 per cent countervailing duty (CVD) was levied prior to GST. Since GST subsumed CVD, the GST rate on gold at 3 per cent has to be paid at the time of imports in the form of Integrated GST with effect from July 1.

India is the world’s second biggest gold consumer after China. The import mainly takes care of the demand of the jewellery industry.

The official said that once the system stabilises, the intelligence agencies within the revenue department could better monitor end usage of the imported gold.

“DGARM would be utilised to provide intelligence inputs and do big data analytics for taxmen for better policy formulation and taking action against tax evaders,” he said.

Set up under the Central Board of Excise and Customs (CBEC), DGARM will use internal and external sources for detailed data mining and risk management.

As per data on GST returns filed by companies opting for composition scheme, as many as 5 lakh firms reported such a turnover which works out to annual sales of Rs 5 lakh only.

Out of 10 lakh businesses that opted for the composition scheme during the July-September period, about 7 lakh have filed GST returns for the quarter.

The official further said that currently, there is little tracking of goods movement from one state to another and the e-way bill would act as a tool to check tax evasion as then movement of stock and its end use would be monitored.

E-way or electronic way bill is for the movement of goods and can be generated on the GSTN (common portal). Movement of goods of more than Rs 50,000 in value cannot be made by a registered person without an e-way bill.

Source: Times of India

GST mop-up on track; fisc not under threat

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A monthly collection of around ₹80,000 cr appears sufficient to meet the Centre’s and States’ needs

The Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections for December 2017 show an increase, but despite this there are concerns that the tepid collections since July could pose a problem on the fiscal deficit front.

However, a closer look at the numbers shows that these fears are misplaced. The Centre’s tax collection, as per the CGA (Controller General of Accounts), appears to be on track to achieving the Budget estimates for 2017-18. There are, however, many trouble spots in the new regime.

The complexity of the GST, which combines many of the indirect taxes of the Centre and States, has made it quite difficult to estimate the expected monthly collection target.

At a press conference in August 2017, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said that the collections in July were better than the target of ₹91,000 crore for that month. This figure has been used since then as a ball-park figure for measuring monthly GST collections.

If we use this figure, GST collections in October (₹83,346 crore), November (₹80,808 crore) and December (₹86,703 crore) are well short of the target. But that may not really be the case.

To estimate the targeted monthly GST collection, we worked backward to see the projected revenue in the Budget estimate for 2017-18 from goods and services that have been put under GST. While service taxes have mostly moved under GST, only about a third of excise duty collections are under GST since the taxes on many petroleum products are still outside the new regime. Under Customs duty, almost 64 per cent of the collections are now under GST.

Using this basis, around ₹43,000 crore of GST need to be collected by the Centre monthly towards its indirect tax collections. A portion of this will devolve to the States as part of their share in the Centre’s revenue.

States totally have to be disbursed ₹43,000 crore every month, assuming 14 per cent annual growth from their 2015-16 revenue. Working with these numbers, a monthly GST collection of around ₹80,000 crore appears sufficient to meet the Centre’s and States’ needs.

Actual numbers

The fact that the Centre has not fallen short in its indirect tax collections is borne out by the numbers from the CGA. Gross tax revenue of the Centre for the period between April to November 2017 was ₹10,87,302 crore, up 16.5 per cent from the amount collected in the same period in 2016-17.

Interestingly, gross indirect tax collection of the Centre in this period was up 18.2 per cent, having risen from ₹5,08,924 crore to ₹6,01,904 crore.

While the devolution to States was 25 per cent higher, the Centre’s net tax revenue has managed to increase 12.59 per cent, showing that the Finance Minister will not have too much difficulty in balancing the fisc.

The catch

While the Centre’s collections are on track, allocations to States can pose a problem. “Due to the fact that IGST revenue is disbursed over a period of time, there is a thinking amongst States that there is a revenue shortfall,” explains Gautam Khattar, Partner, Indirect tax, PwC.

Disputes on input-tax credit claimed by businesses in the provisional GSTR 3B form are another issue that could impede calculations. “Definitely, this is the major concern for the Department because invoice matching is the backbone of GST,” says Vishal Raheja, DGM, Taxmann.

 

Source: Press Reader

 

Unexplained deposits in focus, taxmen ordered to go all out in the next three months

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About two months ago, tax offices were directed to accept only those revised tax returns where there is a “bonafide inadvertent error” or “a mistake” on the part of the assessee.

The income-tax department will in all likelihood go into overdrive in the next three months with the Central Board of Direct Taxes — the apex body — alerting all senior tax officials that their performance is being “monitored at the highest level.” It will also give a renewed push towards imposing and recovering tax on Rs 3 lakh crore deposit, which is suspected to be the quantum of unexplained cash parked with banks post demonetisation.

“There will be searches, surveys, information verification, and follow-ups. Explanations on ‘cash in hand’ amounts are being sought from different kinds of assessees, and not just from large establishments and jewellers… We will be knocking on many doors even if our respective targets are met,” a senior tax officer told ET.

This was broadly the message conveyed by the CBDT chief during a recent video-conference with tax officials.According to another person in the department, direct tax offices in various circles may be required to go full steam due to a drop in GST collection following cut in tax rates and refunds.

‘Dispose of Appeals Before March 31’
Till now many in the department were caught up with assessments pertaining to notices which were sent in September 2015 (for the financial year 2014-15) as these matters were getting time-barred in December 2017. Now, tax officers have the time to focus on recovery till March 31. “A possible slowdown in income tax refund, directing the CIT Appeal to dispose of appeals confirming the additions, investigating cases where assesses have deposited more than Rs 10 lakh in demonetised notes may push up gross collection. But does this really reflect the true state of tax collection in a slowing economy where the GDP growth rate is admitted to have come down,” said senior chartered accountant Dilip Lakhani.
In some of the large tax collection zones like Mumbai, the chief commissioner has written to several offices of the commissioner of income tax (Appeals), which is the first appellate authority, to dispose of many appeals before the close of the financial year.

1

Tax authorities technically have the power to come down heavily on those who are unable to explain their cash deposit by slapping 60% tax and penalty – even though the process could take some time.

About two months ago, tax offices were directed to accept only those revised tax returns where there is a “bonafide inadvertent error” or “a mistake” on the part of the assessee. This was to tax the unaccounted cash that was deposited after demonetisation (of high denomination currency bills in November 2016) and subsequently regularised through a revised return and payment of tax on it at the normal rate of 30%.

However, the communique to tax officers guidelines were only suggestive in nature as the law allows filing of revised return due to various reasons including an intention to conceal income.

World Bank says India has huge potential, projects 7.3% growth in 2018

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World Bank says India has huge potential, projects 7.3% growth

India’s growth rate in 2018 is projected to hit 7.3 per cent and 7.5 per cent in the next two years, according to the World Bank, which said the country has “enormous growth potential” compared to other emerging economies with the implementation of comprehensive reforms.

India is estimated to have grown at 6.7 per cent in 2017 despite initial setbacks from demonetisation and the Goods and Services Tax (GST), according to the 2018 Global Economics Prospect released by the World Bank here yesterday.

“In all likelihood India is going to register higher growth rate than other major emerging market economies in the next decade. So, I wouldn’t focus on the short-term numbers. I would look at the big picture for India and big picture is telling us that it has enormous potential,” Ayhan Kose, Director, Development Prospects Group at the World Bank, told PTI in an interview.

He said in comparison with China, which is slowing, the World Bank is expecting India to gradually accelerate.

“The growth numbers of the past three years were very healthy,” Kose, author of the report, said.

India’s economy is likely to grow 7.3 per cent in 2018 and then accelerate to 7.5 per cent in the next two years, the bank said.

China grew at 6.8 per cent in 2017, 0.1 per cent more than that of India, while in 2018, its growth rate is projected at 6.4 per cent. And in the next two years, the country’s growth rate will drop marginally to 6.3 and 6.2 per cent, respectively.

To materialise its potential, India, Kose said, needs to take steps to boost investment prospects.

There are measures underway to do in terms of non- performing loans and productivity, he said.

“On the productivity side, India has enormous potential with respect to secondary education completion rate. All in all, improved labour market reforms, education and health reforms as well as relaxing investment bottleneck will help improve India’s prospects,” Kose said.

India has a favourable demographic profile which is rarely seen in other economies, he said.

“In that context, improving female labour force participation rate is going to be important. Female labour force participation still remains low relative to other emerging market economies,” he said.

Reducing youth unemployment is critical, and pushing for private investment, where problems are already well-known like bank assets quality issues…If these are done, India can reach its potential easily and exceed, Kose asserted.

“In fact, we expect India to do better than its potential in 2018 and move forward,” he said.

India’s growth potential, he said would be around 7 per cent for the next 10 years.

The Indian government is “very serious” with the GST being a major turning point and banking recapitalisation programme is really important, Kose said.

“The Indian government has already recognised some of these problems and undertaking measures and willing to see the outcomes of these measures,” he said.

“India is a very large economy. It has a huge potential. At the same time, it has its own challenges. This government is very much aware of these challenges and is showing just doing its best in terms of dealing with them,” the World Bank official said.

The latest World Bank growth estimate for 2017 is 0.5 per cent, less than the previous projection, and 0.2 per cent less in the next two years.

“It is slightly lower than its previous forecast, primarily because India is undertaking major reforms,” Kose said.

These reforms, of course, will bring certain policy uncertainty, he said, “but the big issue about India, when you look at India’s growth potential and our numbers down the road 2019 and 2020, is that it is going to be the fastest growing large emerging market.”

“India has an ambitious government undertaking comprehensive reforms. The GST is a major reform to have harmonised taxes, is one nation one market one tax concept. Then, of course, the late 2016 demonetisation reform was there. The government is well aware of these short-term implications,” Kose said.

He said there might have been some temporary disruptions but “all in all” the Indian economy has done well.

“The potential growth rate of the Indian economy is very healthy to 7 per cent. I think the growth is going to be at a high rate going forward,” the World Bank official said.

In a South Asia regional press release, the World Bank said India is estimated to grow 6.7 percent in fiscal year 2017-18, slightly down from the 7.1 percent of the previous fiscal year.

This is due in part to the effects of the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax, but also to protracted balance sheet weaknesses, including corporate debt burdens and non- performing loans in the banking sector, weighing down private investment, it said.

Read more at: Economic Times

Taxman plans to match GST invoices to plug leakage

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Move in response to falling GST revenue collections

The GST Council may move the sales and purchase invoice matching system to the back end. It will do so to keep tabs on missing transactions and check over-claim of input tax credits in the goods and services tax (GST).

At present, assessees claim input credits themselves by filing summary input- output returns, and the tax authorities do not have any clue whether the claims are correct or not. The process of invoice matching was supposed to be done by the assessees, though it was deferred till March. However, slowing GST revenues have now prompted the government to design an alternative mechanism, under which tax officials will do the matching themselves.

“Instead of asking taxpayers to match invoices, we may do it ourselves at the back end. We may follow a risk-based approach; when the gross level of transactions does not match, we may match invoices,” an official said, adding the proposal was under consideration.

GSTR-1 (sales) and GSTR-2 (purchase) returns have to be matched with GSTR-3 to ensure that claims by taxpayers are correct. Both GSTR-2 and GSTR-3 returns have been postponed.

A committee, under GSTN Chairman Ajay Bhushan Pandey, is looking at ways of making the filing of the GSTR-2 and GSTR-3 forms business-friendly. The time period for filing the GSTR-2 and GSTR-3 forms for the months of July to March is also being worked out. The committee has recommended merging the GSTR-1, 2 and 3 forms as one option to simplify filing returns.

According to estimates, there is a 15-20 per cent GST revenue leakage at the moment.

GSTR-1 is used to file details of outward sales of a dealer. After submission, the details of purchases made by the dealer are automatically populated in the GSTR-2 form. The dealer is required to verify the details and submit the form. Finally, GSTR-3 calculates a taxpayer’s tax liability and the available input tax credit.

GST revenue collections touched their lowest in November at ~808 billion. According t0o the government’s estimates, if this trend continues, there could be a shortfall of ~250-300 billion in indirect tax collections this fiscal year. The government had attributed the slowing revenue to postponement of features of the GST such as matching of returns, electronic way bills and the reverse charge mechanism.

The revenue slowdown prompted the GST Council to call an urgent meeting on December 16 and advance the introduction of the electronicway bill for inter-state movements of goods to February 1 and for intra-state carriage from June 1.

“It is important that the concept of invoice matching continues as it is part of the basic design of the GST. If it is not done electronically, it will be needed at the time of assessment or audit, which will lead to more paperwork. The process can, however, be simplified,” said Pratik Jain, leader-indirect taxes, PwC India.

M S Mani, senior director-indirect taxes, Deloitte, said invoice matching provided taxpayers the ability to view transactions and take corrective steps on an ongoing basis. “While this may be cumbersome for small businesses, there are significant benefits for taxpayers and the government. However, the technology challenges will have to be overcome so that the matching happens seamlessly online in real time,” he said.

Bipin Sapra, partner— indirect taxes, EY, said, “In the absence of invoice level matching, the alternative is to match revenues and credits with GSTR1 but since the process will not be automated, it will be possible for a limited number of clients on the basis of risk assessment.”

Filing of final GST returns deadline extended till Jan 10

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The GST Council had in November allowed businesses with turnover of up to Rs. 1.5 crore to file final returns GSTR-1 quarterly

The government has extended by 10 days the last date for filing of final sales return GSTR-1 till January 10 under the Goods and Services Tax, sources said.

Businesses with turnover of up to Rs. 1.5 crore will have to file GSTR-1 for July-September by January 10, 2018, as against December 31, 2017 earlier. For businesses with turnover of more than Rs. 1.5 crore GSTR-1 has to be filed for the period July-November by January 10.

Earlier these businesses were required to file GSTR-1 return for July-October by December 31 and that for November by January 10. For the month of December, GSTR-1 is to be filed by February 10 and for subsequent months, it would be 10th day of the succeeding month.

The GST Council had in November allowed businesses with turnover of up to Rs. 1.5 crore to file final returns GSTR-1 quarterly. Businesses with turnover of up to Rs. 1.5 crore will have to file returns by February 15 for the period October- December and that for January-March by April 30.

 

Source: The Hindu Business Line