Record reserves turn costly cash pile for RBI

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As India’s foreign-exchange reserves march toward the unprecedented $400 billion mark, its central bank faces a costly conundrum.

As India’s foreign-exchange reserves march toward the unprecedented $400 billion mark, its central bank faces a costly conundrum. To keep the rupee stable and exports competitive, it is having to mop up inflows that’s adding cash to the local banking system. Problem is, banks are flush with money following Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s demonetization program last year, leaving them already struggling to pay interest on the deposits in an environment where loans aren’t picking up. The resulting need to absorb both dollar- and rupee-liquidity is stretching the Reserve Bank of India’s range of tools and complicating policy. Costs to mop up these inflows have eroded the RBI’s earnings, halving its annual dividend to the government. “The RBI would be paying more on its sterilization bills than it gets on its reserve assets, so it would cut into its profits,” said Brad W. Setser, senior fellow at New York-based thinktank Council on Foreign Relations. “Selling sterilization paper in a country with a relatively high nominal interest rate like India is costly.”

Governor Urjit Patel aims to revert to neutral liquidity in the coming months from the current surplus. Lenders parked an average 2.9 trillion rupees ($45 billion) of excess cash with the central bank each day this month compared with 259 billion rupees the same time last year. This peaked at 5.5 trillion in March. The surge in liquidity has pushed the RBI to resume open-market bond sales as well as auctions of longer duration repos besides imposing costs on the government for special instruments such as cash management bills and market stabilization scheme bonds. Meanwhile foreign investors have poured $18.5 billion into Indian equities and bonds in the year through June, during which period the RBI has added $23.4 billion to its reserves. Its forward dollar book has also increased to a net long position of $17.1 billion end-June from a net short $7.4 billion a year ago. “My guess is reserves over 20 percent of GDP would start to raise questions about cost – but that is just a guess,” said Setser. India’s reserves have ranged between 15 and 20 percent of GDP since 2008 global crisis — a level that’s neither too low to create vulnerability or too high indicating excess intervention, he said.

Consistent buildup in the forward book may have cost the RBI some 70 billion rupees, while total liquidity-absorption costs due to the demonetization deluge from November to June were 100 billion rupees, according to calculations by Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. The RBI paid another 50 billion rupees to 70 billion rupees to print banknotes, the bank estimates. A weakening dollar would also have led to losses due to the foreign-currency cash pile, which has traditionally been dominated by the greenback. The Bloomberg Dollar Index has fallen 8.5 percent this year. After all these expenses, the RBI transferred 306.6 billion rupees as annual dividend to the government, compared with 749 billion rupees budgeted to come from the RBI and financial institutions. More clarity will emerge with the RBI’s annual report typically published in the final week of August. “This disturbs the fiscal math for the year through March 2018,” said Madhavi Arora, an economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank. Assuming everything else stays constant, she estimates the budget deficit may come in at 3.4 percent of gross domestic product rather than the government’s goal of 3.2 percent.

Apart from the high costs, there’s another dimension to the surge in liquidity. The RBI could face a shortage of bonds it places as collateral with its creditors. It is said to be preparing a fresh proposal to the government for creation of a window — the so-called standing deposit facility — which doesn’t require any collateral. “As the excess liquidity challenge looks set to persist, the RBI will need more tools to manage this, such as the standing deposit facility,” economists at Morgan Stanley, including Derrick Kam, wrote in an Aug. 16 note. He predicts that at the current rate of accretion, foreign-exchange reserves will hit $400 billion by Sept. 8 from $393 billion this month.

Source: Financial Express

Foreign fund inflows hit a record high

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Foreign fund inflows hit a record high. So far this year, India has seen an inflow of nearly Rs 1.25 lakh crore.

The Indian rupee has been one of the best performing currencies among the emerging markets since the beginning of 2017, thanks to robust macroeconomic factors and attractive domestic bond yields. As a result, foreign fund inflows have hit a record.

 

So far this year, India has seen an inflow of nearly Rs 1.25 lakh crore, including Rs 73,200 crore in bonds, against an outflow of Rs 25,500 crore, a year ago. This is higher than foreign fund inflows in the first half of any previous calendar year, even as only the first week of June has got over so far. Given the present economic scenario, rupee is expected to sustain these levels and remain range bound.

 

India’s current account deficit has consistently improved over the years — from 4.8% of GDP in 2012-13 to expected 0.9 per cent in 2016-17, helped by weak oil prices, which constitute as much as 40-50 per cent of India’s imports.

 

With brent crude oil prices continuing to remain weak, down more than 8 per cent in the past two weeks and 1 per cent year-on-year, and the Reserve Bank of India keeping benchmark interest rate unchanged in its Wednesday policy meeting, the rupee is likely to continue to trade at the current levels vis-à-vis the US dollar in the short to medium term.

Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/59046239.cms

 

FDI in services sector up 77.6% to $7.55 billion in nine months of FY17

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The commerce and industry ministry is considering relaxing FDI norms in certain sectors including retail to further boost inflows.

Foreign investments in the services sector increased 77.6% to $7.55 billion in the first nine months of the current fiscal, helped by government steps to improve ease of doing business.

The sector, which includes banking, insurance, research and development (R&D), outsourcing, courier and technology testing, had received foreign direct investment (FDI) worth $4.25 billion during the April-December period of last fiscal, 2015-16, according to the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP).

The sector contributes over 60% to India’s gross domestic product (GDP) and accounts for 17% of the total foreign investment inflows.

The other sectors where inflows have recorded growth during the nine-month period of 2016-17 are telecom ($5.54 billion), trading ($2 billion), computer software and hardware ($1.81 billion) and automobile ($1.45 billion).

In step FDI growth in important sectors like services, overall foreign inflows in the country increased 22% to $35.84 billion during April-December 2016-17.

The commerce and industry ministry is also considering relaxing FDI norms in certain sectors including retail to further boost inflows. Foreign investment is considered crucial for India, which needs around $1 trillion for overhauling its infrastructure sector such as ports, airports and highways to boost growth.

A strong inflow of foreign investments will help improve the country’s balance of payments situation and strengthen the rupee against other global currencies, especially the US dollar.

 

Source: http://www.livemint.com/Money/G5PEusUPpmxanUhuo3O67O/FDI-in-services-sector-up-776-to-755-billion-in-nine-mon.html

OECD backs demonetisation, projects FY17 GDP growth at 7%

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The Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has supported India’s demonetisation drive, asserting that immediate impact of the move on Indian economy will be transient.

The Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has supported India’s demonetisation drive, asserting that immediate impact of the move on Indian economy will be transient.

“Implementing the demonetisation has had transitory and short- term costs but should have long-term benefits,” OECD said on Tuesday in its report, Economic Survey of India. OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria said the impact of demonetisation on consumption pattern may just have been limited to the quarter ended December 31, 2016.

The Paris-based global policy forum projected a GDP growth rate of 7 percent in the current financial year, while estimating it to grow to 7.3 percent in FY18 and 7.7 percent in FY19.

The OECD comments come a few hours before the Central Statistics Office (CSO) releases Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth estimates for Q3FY17 and the second full year advance estimates for 2016-17. The GDP estimates released in January projected that India would grow 7.1 percent in 2016-17 from 7.9 percent in the previous year.

Amid signs of slide in consumer goods sales and muted investment activity because of the cash crunch, it is highly likely that the CSO will sharply revise downwards India’s GDP growth in its second advance estimates. Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das, who was also present at the launch of the report, said that the benefits and outcomes of demonetisation would be positive from next quarter. “The process of remonetisation is nearly complete. Any adverse impact of consumption in that quarter is not likely to spill over next year. So that is over and behind us,” Das said.

“The shift towards a less cash economy and formalisation should, however, improve the financing of the economy and availability of loans (as a result of the shift from cash to bank deposits) and should promote tax compliance,” the report said.

On November 8, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that existing 500 and 1000 rupee notes would cease to be legal tender, thereby sucking out 86 percent of the currency in circulation from the economy. The survey, however, said that the temporary cash shortage and wealth destruction, as fake currency and illegal cash will not be redeemed. T

he report further said that the implementation of the goods and services tax (GST) reform will contribute to making India more integrated market. “By reducing tax cascading, it will boost competitiveness, investment and job creation.

The GST reform — designed to be initially revenue-central — should be complemented by a reform of income and property taxes,” the OECD survey said.

The survey pointed out that investment is still held back by relatively high corporate income tax rates, slow land acquisition process, weak corporate balance sheets and high non-performing loans which weigh on banks’ lending and infrastructure bottlenecks.

Key recommendations of OECD included raising revenue, especially from property and personal income taxes, ensuring that government debt to GDP ratio returns to a declining path, as well as strengthening of public bank balance sheets by recapitalising them and promoting bank consolidation.

It also suggested simpler and flexible labour laws and a gradual reduction in corporate income tax from 30% to 25%, while broadening the tax base.

Source: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/oecd-backs-demonetisation-projects-fy17-gdp-growth-at-7_8569641.html