India growing pretty robustly: World Bank President Jim Kim

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Jim Kim said Japan, Europe and the US along with India were growing and there was a levelling-out in developing countries.

India has been growing “pretty robustly”, World Bank President Jim Yong Kim has said as he predicted a strong global growth this year.

Speaking at the Bloomberg Global Business Forum meeting here on Wednesday, Kim also called for more cooperation among the multilateral system, private sector and the governments to take advantage of the current win-win situation.

“That dormant capital will earn a higher return, where developing countries will have access to much more capital for the infrastructure needs, even for investing in health and education, investing in resilience to climate change and other factors,” Kim said.

He said Japan, Europe and the US along with India were growing and there was a levelling-out in developing countries.

“A country like India is growing, has been growing pretty robustly. We think, Japan is growing. Europe is growing in a much more healthy way. The United States continues to grow. There is a levelling-out in developing countries,” he said, adding that the growth will be more robust this year.

In June, the World Bank predicted a 7.2 per cent growth rate for India this year against 6.8 per cent growth in 2016. India remains the fastest growing major economy in the world, the World Bank officials had said.

“It used to be that commodity importers were doing much better than commodity exporters. But that’s levelling out. So the growth is relatively more evenly distributed,” Kim said.

He said in terms of indebtedness, the bank was watching very carefully the debt-to-GDP ratios of every single country.

“In Africa, the debt-to-GDP ratios are still very manageable…We would not be moving toward providing more financing for countries if we thought there was a real problem with over indebtedness in the countries. Because we follow this very closely, along with the IMF,” he said.

“We think that there are tremendous opportunities for investment. But sometimes, purely based on perception, investors in sovereign wealth funds – I’ve heard them say, Africa is risky. Right, as if Africa was a single country.

Africa’s not a single country and the risk profiles from country to country have enormous differences,” he said.

Source: Economic Times

 

Record reserves turn costly cash pile for RBI

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As India’s foreign-exchange reserves march toward the unprecedented $400 billion mark, its central bank faces a costly conundrum.

As India’s foreign-exchange reserves march toward the unprecedented $400 billion mark, its central bank faces a costly conundrum. To keep the rupee stable and exports competitive, it is having to mop up inflows that’s adding cash to the local banking system. Problem is, banks are flush with money following Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s demonetization program last year, leaving them already struggling to pay interest on the deposits in an environment where loans aren’t picking up. The resulting need to absorb both dollar- and rupee-liquidity is stretching the Reserve Bank of India’s range of tools and complicating policy. Costs to mop up these inflows have eroded the RBI’s earnings, halving its annual dividend to the government. “The RBI would be paying more on its sterilization bills than it gets on its reserve assets, so it would cut into its profits,” said Brad W. Setser, senior fellow at New York-based thinktank Council on Foreign Relations. “Selling sterilization paper in a country with a relatively high nominal interest rate like India is costly.”

Governor Urjit Patel aims to revert to neutral liquidity in the coming months from the current surplus. Lenders parked an average 2.9 trillion rupees ($45 billion) of excess cash with the central bank each day this month compared with 259 billion rupees the same time last year. This peaked at 5.5 trillion in March. The surge in liquidity has pushed the RBI to resume open-market bond sales as well as auctions of longer duration repos besides imposing costs on the government for special instruments such as cash management bills and market stabilization scheme bonds. Meanwhile foreign investors have poured $18.5 billion into Indian equities and bonds in the year through June, during which period the RBI has added $23.4 billion to its reserves. Its forward dollar book has also increased to a net long position of $17.1 billion end-June from a net short $7.4 billion a year ago. “My guess is reserves over 20 percent of GDP would start to raise questions about cost – but that is just a guess,” said Setser. India’s reserves have ranged between 15 and 20 percent of GDP since 2008 global crisis — a level that’s neither too low to create vulnerability or too high indicating excess intervention, he said.

Consistent buildup in the forward book may have cost the RBI some 70 billion rupees, while total liquidity-absorption costs due to the demonetization deluge from November to June were 100 billion rupees, according to calculations by Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. The RBI paid another 50 billion rupees to 70 billion rupees to print banknotes, the bank estimates. A weakening dollar would also have led to losses due to the foreign-currency cash pile, which has traditionally been dominated by the greenback. The Bloomberg Dollar Index has fallen 8.5 percent this year. After all these expenses, the RBI transferred 306.6 billion rupees as annual dividend to the government, compared with 749 billion rupees budgeted to come from the RBI and financial institutions. More clarity will emerge with the RBI’s annual report typically published in the final week of August. “This disturbs the fiscal math for the year through March 2018,” said Madhavi Arora, an economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank. Assuming everything else stays constant, she estimates the budget deficit may come in at 3.4 percent of gross domestic product rather than the government’s goal of 3.2 percent.

Apart from the high costs, there’s another dimension to the surge in liquidity. The RBI could face a shortage of bonds it places as collateral with its creditors. It is said to be preparing a fresh proposal to the government for creation of a window — the so-called standing deposit facility — which doesn’t require any collateral. “As the excess liquidity challenge looks set to persist, the RBI will need more tools to manage this, such as the standing deposit facility,” economists at Morgan Stanley, including Derrick Kam, wrote in an Aug. 16 note. He predicts that at the current rate of accretion, foreign-exchange reserves will hit $400 billion by Sept. 8 from $393 billion this month.

Source: Financial Express

Philippines fastest-growing economy in developing Asia

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The Philippine economy grew at its fastest pace in three years last quarter, underscoring the nation’s resilience to global risks as investment surged and consumers spent more.

Gross domestic product increased 7.1% from a year earlier, the Philippine Statistics Authority said in Manila on Thursday. The median estimate of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was 6.7%.

Compared with the previous quarter, GDP rose 1.2%, in line with economists’ estimates

Undeterred by risks such as Donald Trump’s protectionist ambitions and President Rodrigo Duterte’s rants against the US, the Philippine economy is set to expand more than 6% until 2018 to rank among the fastest-growing in the world, accordng to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Last quarter’s growth exceeded China’s 6.7% and Vietnam’s 6.4% in the same period. India, which posted growth of 7.1% in the second quarter, is yet to publish GDP data for the three months through September.

Gifted with a young population and backed by $50 billion of revenue from remittances and outsourcing, the Philippines is getting an additional boost from Mr Duterte’s $160-billion infrastructure plan aimed at creating jobs. Projects include at least $1 billion of contracts to build an airport and a railway to transform a former US military base into a commercial hub.

Philippine stocks rose a second day, climbing as much as 2.2%. They were up 1.1% as of 1101am in Manila.

The peso was little changed at 49.32 per dollar.

“Philippines will remain an outperformer in the region,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Singapore. “It is domestically driven, with consumption holding up quite well and the fiscal spending being planned. The global risks we’re seeing including to trade won’t fundamentally alter its prospects.

“In the short term at least, we expect the economy will continue growing at a decent pace,” Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics Ltd in London, said in a note. “The foundations are in place for growth to remain strong, but recent political events, both in the US and domestically, have made the outlook much less certain.”

“Putting money on infrastructure-related stocks is the smart bet and it’s exactly what I am doing,” said John Padilla, who helps manage about $9.1 billion at Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co, the Philippines third-largest money manager. “This growth poses now more challenge for President Duterte to keep the pace. It supports the view that Philippines needs infrastructure to sustain this growth.”

Household spending, which makes up about 70% of GDP, rose 7.3% from a year earlier. Government spending gained 3.1% and investment surged 20%.

Source: http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/asean/1137576/philippines-fastest-growing-economy-in-developing-asia

FPI equity buys in India touch $5.4 bn this year

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Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have bought equities worth $5.4 billion in the Indian markets in 2016 so far, according to data obtained from Bloomberg. This makes India the third biggest destination for FPIs after Taiwan and South Korea which have seen inflows of $13.6 billion and $8.1 billion, respectively, reports fe Bureau in Mumbai.

 

Thailand ranks fourth with foreign inflows of $ 3 billion followed by Indonesia which received foreign investment worth $ 2.8 billion. In 2016 so far, the Sensex gained 7.44% and Nifty50 gained 8.73%.

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Source:

http://www.financialexpress.com/markets/indian-markets/fpi-equity-buys-in-india-touch-5-4-bn-this-year/349325/

Brexit offers lifeline on $800 billion emerging company debt

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Britain’s vote to exit the European Union (EU) has thrown a lifeline to emerging-market companies facing an $800 billion wall of maturing debt.

By hindering the Federal Reserve’s plan to raise interest rates, the referendum result has led to speculation borrowing costs will remain lower for longer as policy makers attempt to prevent Europe’s turmoil turning into a recession. This means developing-nation companies that borrowed when it was cheaper to do so won’t have to pay more to service those bonds, at least for now.

The prospect of fewer defaults shows how the so-called Brexit vote is proving a blessing for developing-nation companies that need to pay back about $200 billion per year from 2017 to 2020. Economists from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the Bank for International Settlements have been warning Fed monetary tightening may set off an increase in corporate failures in emerging markets. Defaults have been climbing since 2013 and reached a seven-year high in the second quarter.

“We might even see a decline in default rates again in the third and fourth quarters of this year,” said Apostolos Bantis, a Dubai-based credit analyst at Commerzbank AG, who recommends investing in Latin American company bonds. “The overall outlook now is more positive for emerging-markets corporates because the Fed is very unlikely to move any time soon following the Brexit.”

Uncertain outcomes

The policy uncertainty engulfing the developed world has boosted the appeal of emerging countries, usually viewed by investors as more vulnerable to political risk. Yields on a Bloomberg index tracking developing-nation corporate bonds have fallen 27 basis points to 5.19% since the UK vote, adding to a recovery that started when oil prices began rebounding from a 20 January low.

The sentiment shift means that defaults are probably past their peak, according to Kathy Collins, an analyst at Aberdeen Asset Management in London. By 28 June, S&P Global Ratings had recorded 10 emerging-market corporate defaults in the second quarter, the worst quarterly tally since mid-2009. The rating company’s 12-month junk-bond default rate climbed to 3.2% at the end of May from 2.9% at the end of April.

“Given where commodity prices are at the moment, we’re not expecting too many more defaults,” Collins said. “In the first six months of this year, we’ve seen a lot of companies be very proactive in terms of tenders and buybacks in the market.”

Buying back

Russia’s Novolipetsk Steel PJSC and shipping operator Sovcomflot OJSC have announced they intend to buy back debt totaling as much as $2 billion. Latin American bonds sales surged over the past week, which HSBC Holdings Plc partly attributed to an increased likelihood of “ultra-low global policy rates” for longer. Brazilian meat packer Marfrig Global Foods SA sold $250 million of securities to repurchase outstanding notes in a push it said would “lengthen its debt maturity profile and reduce the cost of its capital structure.”

The issuance boom may prove short lived if the prospect of Fed tightening re-emerges. The UK’s vote to end its 43-year association with the EU has also ushered in a period of uncertainty for global markets that may eventually turn investors off developing-world assets. In June, the BIS reiterated a warning that emerging market non-bank borrowers that have accumulated $3.3 trillion in dollar debt are coming under strain as their economies slow and currencies weaken.

“If we get some volatility in emerging markets, say from political noise coming from the EU, and there is no access to capital markets from some issuers, that could be really negative,” Badr El Moutawakil, an emerging-market credit strategist at Barclays Plc in London said.

Even after the Brexit dust settles, looming elections in the US, Germany, France and possibly the UK mean a lengthening list of potentially disruptive events, strengthening the hands of dovish central bankers. Emerging-market companies have raised $3.71 billion of international bonds since the UK’s referendum on 23 June.

“External factors are more supportive,” said Bantis from Commerzbank. “The default trend of the past quarter is unlikely to continue.” Bloomberg

Source: http://www.livemint.com/Politics/sCZ90ORt2l0cm0rnS0DIqJ/Brexit-offers-lifeline-on-800-billion-emerging-company-debt.html

Abu Dhabi banks in talks to form largest West Asia lender

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National Bank of Abu Dhabi (NBAD) PJSC and First Gulf Bank (FGB) PJSC said they’re in talks to merge in a deal that would create the largest lender by assets in West Asia.

A working group of senior executives from each bank is reviewing the commercial, structural and legal aspects of a potential transaction, according to a filing to the Abu Dhabi stock exchange on Sunday. Bloomberg News was first to report the two banks were considering a potential merger on June 16.

A deal would create a lender with assets of about $170 billion and mark the first major banking merger in the United Arab Emirates’ since National Bank of Dubai and Emirates Bank International combined to create Emirates NBD PJSC in 2007. The country’s fragmented banking industry is ready for further consolidation and a deal could prompt further mergers among lenders, according to investment bank EFG-Hermes Holding SAE.

“There’s no doubt it will lead to synergies and would give them a competitive edge, considering there are more than 40 banks in the UAE,” Chiradeep Ghosh, a banks’ analyst at Securities & Investment Co in Bahrain, said by phone on Sunday. “The combined entity will have a bigger equity book. That will help them to lend to larger entities and take up a greater share of the syndicated loan book.”

First Gulf Bank could pay a premium of as much as 14 per cent to buy National Bank of Abu Dhabi, Arqaam Capital Ltd said in a note to investors on Thursday. NBAD shares surged 15 per cent on Sunday, the maximum allowed in a day, to 9.2 dirhams as of 10:52 am local time. First Gulf Bank also soared, rising 7.8 per cent to 12.7 dirhams. NBAD is the UAE’s second-biggest bank by assets, while FGB is third-ranked.

A combination would help them overtake Emirates NBD as the country’s largest lender and represent nearly a quarter of the system’s loans and deposits, according to EFG-Hermes.

The UAE is home to about 9 million people and has about 50 banks, including the local units of Citigroup Inc, HSBC Holdings Plc and Standard Chartered Plc. Both NBAD and FGB have pushed to expand in other countries to beat the limitations of a small home market and build investment banking businesses to compete with bigger foreign rivals.

NBAD was the fifth-biggest arranger of syndicated loans in the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council last year, while FGB ranked seventh, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. NBAD was also the second-largest arranger of bonds and sukuk sales last year.

The league tables are dominated by foreign lenders including HSBC Holdings Plc, Citigroup Inc and Sumitomo Mitsui.

NBAD, with a market value of about $11.3 billion at the end of Thursday, is 69 per cent owned by sovereign wealth fund Abu Dhabi Investment Council. State-owned investment fund Mubadala Development is the biggest shareholder in FGB, whose market capitalization is $14.4 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The news “was a surprise considering, they have a very contrasting style of management and business strategy,” Ghosh at SICO said. “One is a public-sector focused bank, while FGB is an aggressive private sector bank, with reasonable focus in consumer lending. FGB primarily operates within the UAE, while NBAD is looking to expand outside the UAE.”

Indian private bank new loans outpace state-owned rivals for first time

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India’s privately owned banks are extending new loans faster than their state-run rivals for the first time ever, as government lenders struggle to bring surging bad loans under control.

New credit from private lenders amounted to Rs.3,50,000 crore ($52.4 billion) in the year to 31 March, taking their outstanding advances to Rs.17,90,000 crore, while state banks’ loans grew Rs.2,00,000 crore to Rs.51,20,000 crore, according to a finance ministry document, a copy of which was reviewed by Bloomberg News. Finance ministry spokesman D.S. Malik didn’t respond to two calls to his mobile phone on Tuesday seeking comment.

The stressed-loan ratio for state banks climbed to a 16-year high of 14.34% in the year through March, according to the document. Surging delinquent loans and inadequate risk buffers at India’s government-controlled lenders, which account for more than 70% of loans in the nation’s banking system, have been hindering Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s attempts to revive credit growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.

“Private sector banks will continue to take away market share from state-run banks in coming years,” Siddharth Purohit, a Mumbai-based analyst at Angel Broking Ltd., said by phone. “With limited capital and high bad loans, most state-run banks are not in a position to focus on loan growth.”

The private-sector banks’ faster loan growth is in line with a May 2014 estimate from a central bank-appointed committee, which predicted that the lenders’ share of total Indian banking assets will rise to 32% by 2025, from 12.3% in 2000.

Capital constraints.

Modi needs to revive bank lending as he strives to maintain the fastest growth rate among the world’s major economies. Indian credit grew 9.8% in the 12 months through 13 May, compared with an average of about 14% over the last five years, fortnightly central bank data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Timely capital infusions into constrained public sector banks will aid credit flow, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its monetary policy statement on Tuesday. Rules requiring government stakes of at least 51% have curtailed state banks’ ability to sell shares, while an audit of loan books by the RBI uncovered more soured debt, making them less capitalized than privately-owned lenders.

While some investors had anticipated the six-month-long central-bank audit, which ended on 31 March, to result in higher non-performing-asset (NPA) disclosures, the scale of losses and statements from bank executives highlighting the uncertain outlook for bad debt have surprised analysts. Thirteen state-owned lenders reported combined losses of Rs.18,000 crore for the year to March, finance ministry data shows.

Government lenders are the worst performers this year on the S&P BSE India Bankex Index, led by Punjab National Bank’s 32% slump and State Bank of India’s 6.4% drop. The gauge has gained 6.1% this year. Bloomberg

Source:  http://www.livemint.com/Industry/a9wEXC7uUXU0HpWgGYJEJM/Indian-private-bank-new-loans-outpace-stateowned-rivals-for.html