India’s consumer confidence highest among emerging markets: Credit Suisse

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India’s buoyant consumer sentiment was supported by consumers’ greater confidence in their current and future finances, as well as relatively lower inflation expectations.

India’s consumer confidence is highest compared to other emerging market peers despite the near-term sentiment being adversely impacted by the Centre’s demonetisation move, says a survey.

According to the Credit Suisse Emerging Consumer Scorecard, India has the highest consumer confidence score among the eight emerging markets surveyed — Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, South Africa and Turkey — while China slipped to third place.

India’s buoyant consumer sentiment was supported by consumers’ greater confidence in their current and future finances, as well as relatively lower inflation expectations.

India saw strong improvement in personal finances expectations; a net 47 per cent of the respondents expect the state of their personal finances to improve over the next six months, up from 27 per cent in last year’s survey.

However, only 57 per cent of respondents thought it was a good time to make a major purchase, a sharp drop compared to 80 per cent last year.

“A further 10 per cent of surveyed households have succeeded in entering middle income territory in last three years. This creates a consumer base of 1.25 billion people across eight countries covered, confirming the significance of emerging consumer story and growth opportunity for investors,” said Richard Kersley Head of Global Equity Research Product and Thematic Research at Credit Suisse.

The report said combined effect of demonetisation and GST will help to drive the adoption of non-cash payment modes by consumers and will likely lead to acceleration in the switch to consumption of branded goods.

The government in November last year had announced the demonetisation of Rs 500 and 1,000 currency notes to crack down against black money and terror financing.

The survey also said, as the emerging market consumer has developed, local brands are increasingly  gaining leading market share in lucrative consumer segments previously the preserve of large global brands owned by Western multinational companies.

Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/57920862.cms

US, Europe combined infra spending less than China’s

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Despite a crying need for better infrastructure, investment in it has actually fallen in 10 major economies since the financial crisis, including the US, according to a new study by the McKinsey Global Institute. Meanwhile, China is still going gangbusters on roads, bridges, sewers, and everything else that makes a country run.

“China spends more on economic infrastructure annually than North America and Western Europe combined,” according to the report published Wednesday.

Economists around the world have been arguing that now is a great time to invest in infrastructure because interest rates are super-low and the global economy could use the spending jolt. “Is anyone proud of Kennedy airport?” Harvard University economist Lawrence Summers likes to ask.

The MGI report cites 10 countries where infrastructure spending fell as a share of gross domestic product from 2008 to 2013: the US, UK, Italy, Australia, South Korea, Brazil, India, Russia, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia. The study counts 11 economies, but that’s because it lists the European Union as a separate entity.

In contrast to the widespread declines, the institute says, infrastructure spending grew as a share of GDP in Japan, Germany, France, Canada, Turkey, South Africa and China. The chart from the MGI report shows China’s strength in infrastructure spending. Its bar is the highest. There’s such a thing as too much infrastructure spending, of course. At current rates of investment, China, Japan, and Australia are likely to exceed their needs between now and 2030, the McKinsey & Co-affiliated think tank says. To fund more public infrastructure, the report favours raising user charges such as highway tolls, among other measures.

To encourage more private investment in infrastructure, MGI argues for increasing “regulatory certainty” and giving investors “the ability to charge prices that produce an acceptable risk-adjusted return.”

 

Source:  http://www.business-standard.com/article/international/us-europe-combined-infra-spending-less-than-china-s-116061600030_1.html

Optimistic About India Growth Prospects: IMF

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IMF

Confident that the Indian economy is increasingly on a stable footing, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Sunday said further progress is required on the long-standing supply bottlenecks and for achieving faster and more inclusive growth.

“We are optimistic about India’s prospects and view the economy being on an increasingly stable footing,” said Kalpana Kochhar, deputy director of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific department.

“Inflation has declined, the current account deficit is in check, international reserves are ample and economic growth is picking up,” she added.

Listing out various positive developments, Ms Kochhar said a number of important economic and structural reforms have also been initiated.

These include diesel price deregulation, steps to create more flexible labour markets (particularly at the state level), coal sector reforms, adoption of the flexible inflation targeting framework by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), increasing infrastructure spending, and enhancing financial inclusion, Ms Kochhar told PTI in an interview.

“But further progress is needed to relax long-standing supply bottlenecks (especially in the energy, mining and power sectors) and achieve faster and more inclusive growth,” she said.

The IMF has often said that India is among the few bright spots in an otherwise gloomier world economy.

In a recent report published ahead of the G20 Summit, which began in Turkey on Sunday, the Washington-based multilateral institution said India’s growth will benefit from recent policy reforms, a consequent pickup in investment and lower commodity prices.

It also projected a 7.5 per cent growth rate for India in 2016, as against China’s 6.3 per cent.

However, for the current 2015 year, the IMF has projected 7.3 per cent growth rate, which is 0.2 per cent less than its projection made for the year in July.

“Growth in China is expected to decline as excesses in real estate, credit, and investment continue to unwind. India’s growth will benefit from recent policy reforms, a consequent pickup in investment, and lower commodity prices,” the report said.

Source: http://profit.ndtv.com/news/economy/article-optimistic-about-india-growth-prospects-imf-1243581