India’s Internet economy to double to $250 billion by 2020

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India’s internet economy is slated to double to $250 billion and the number of 4G-enabled devices is envisaged to jump six times to 550 million by calender 2020

India’s internet economy is slated to double to $250 billion and the number of 4G-enabled devices is envisaged to jump six times to 550 million by calender 2020, says a joint study by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and The Indus Entrepreneurs (TiE).

Total number of mobile internet users, the study says, is likely to nearly double to 650 million by 2020, and per user data consumption levels are estimated to grow 10-to-14 times to as much as 7-to-10 GBs a month from a current level of 700 MB per month per user.

The BCG-TiE study expects the growth of the country’s internet economy to be propelled by e-commerce and financial services, with the share of digital transactions likely to more than double to nearly 30-40% by 2020.

But the study cautions that the number of high-speed internet users in India continues to remain “limited to only 56%” of the total number of mobile internet users. This is since a sizeable chunk of such users continue to use feature phones, and are accordingly, constrained by device capability and internet speed.

As a result, “average data consumption per user (in India) continues to be low at less than 1 GB data/month, vis-à-vis developing economies like Indonesia and Brazil (at 2-to-3 GB/month) and developed economies like Japan and US (at 9-to-11 GB/month)”.

According to the BCG-TiE study, a combination of low fixed-line broadband coverage, a high proportion of feature phones among mobile handsets in use and high data prices have been key contributing factors behind low internet consumption in the county so far.

Nevertheless, the study expects high-speed mobile internet adoption levels to surge in the country from current the 56% to 85% of total the mobile internet base by 2020 as Indians are increasingly doing more than just calling on their handsets. “One in every four, accesses internet on their mobile phones, summing to 391 million internet users, which for perspective is bigger the population of US,” said BCG and TiE in their joint study.

Furthermore, the country’s devices ecosystem, it said, is leapfrogging by 2-3 years, and the emergence of 4G enabled feature phones is expected to give a fillip to high-speed internet access, going forward.

So much so, the study suggests that 3G smartphones are likely to get phased out by 2018, and be entirely replaced by 4G smartphones inundating the market.

Source: http://cio.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/internet/indias-internet-economy-to-double-to-250-billion-by-2020-study/58262924

India’s consumer confidence highest among emerging markets: Credit Suisse

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India’s buoyant consumer sentiment was supported by consumers’ greater confidence in their current and future finances, as well as relatively lower inflation expectations.

India’s consumer confidence is highest compared to other emerging market peers despite the near-term sentiment being adversely impacted by the Centre’s demonetisation move, says a survey.

According to the Credit Suisse Emerging Consumer Scorecard, India has the highest consumer confidence score among the eight emerging markets surveyed — Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, South Africa and Turkey — while China slipped to third place.

India’s buoyant consumer sentiment was supported by consumers’ greater confidence in their current and future finances, as well as relatively lower inflation expectations.

India saw strong improvement in personal finances expectations; a net 47 per cent of the respondents expect the state of their personal finances to improve over the next six months, up from 27 per cent in last year’s survey.

However, only 57 per cent of respondents thought it was a good time to make a major purchase, a sharp drop compared to 80 per cent last year.

“A further 10 per cent of surveyed households have succeeded in entering middle income territory in last three years. This creates a consumer base of 1.25 billion people across eight countries covered, confirming the significance of emerging consumer story and growth opportunity for investors,” said Richard Kersley Head of Global Equity Research Product and Thematic Research at Credit Suisse.

The report said combined effect of demonetisation and GST will help to drive the adoption of non-cash payment modes by consumers and will likely lead to acceleration in the switch to consumption of branded goods.

The government in November last year had announced the demonetisation of Rs 500 and 1,000 currency notes to crack down against black money and terror financing.

The survey also said, as the emerging market consumer has developed, local brands are increasingly  gaining leading market share in lucrative consumer segments previously the preserve of large global brands owned by Western multinational companies.

Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/57920862.cms

Brexit offers lifeline on $800 billion emerging company debt

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Britain’s vote to exit the European Union (EU) has thrown a lifeline to emerging-market companies facing an $800 billion wall of maturing debt.

By hindering the Federal Reserve’s plan to raise interest rates, the referendum result has led to speculation borrowing costs will remain lower for longer as policy makers attempt to prevent Europe’s turmoil turning into a recession. This means developing-nation companies that borrowed when it was cheaper to do so won’t have to pay more to service those bonds, at least for now.

The prospect of fewer defaults shows how the so-called Brexit vote is proving a blessing for developing-nation companies that need to pay back about $200 billion per year from 2017 to 2020. Economists from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the Bank for International Settlements have been warning Fed monetary tightening may set off an increase in corporate failures in emerging markets. Defaults have been climbing since 2013 and reached a seven-year high in the second quarter.

“We might even see a decline in default rates again in the third and fourth quarters of this year,” said Apostolos Bantis, a Dubai-based credit analyst at Commerzbank AG, who recommends investing in Latin American company bonds. “The overall outlook now is more positive for emerging-markets corporates because the Fed is very unlikely to move any time soon following the Brexit.”

Uncertain outcomes

The policy uncertainty engulfing the developed world has boosted the appeal of emerging countries, usually viewed by investors as more vulnerable to political risk. Yields on a Bloomberg index tracking developing-nation corporate bonds have fallen 27 basis points to 5.19% since the UK vote, adding to a recovery that started when oil prices began rebounding from a 20 January low.

The sentiment shift means that defaults are probably past their peak, according to Kathy Collins, an analyst at Aberdeen Asset Management in London. By 28 June, S&P Global Ratings had recorded 10 emerging-market corporate defaults in the second quarter, the worst quarterly tally since mid-2009. The rating company’s 12-month junk-bond default rate climbed to 3.2% at the end of May from 2.9% at the end of April.

“Given where commodity prices are at the moment, we’re not expecting too many more defaults,” Collins said. “In the first six months of this year, we’ve seen a lot of companies be very proactive in terms of tenders and buybacks in the market.”

Buying back

Russia’s Novolipetsk Steel PJSC and shipping operator Sovcomflot OJSC have announced they intend to buy back debt totaling as much as $2 billion. Latin American bonds sales surged over the past week, which HSBC Holdings Plc partly attributed to an increased likelihood of “ultra-low global policy rates” for longer. Brazilian meat packer Marfrig Global Foods SA sold $250 million of securities to repurchase outstanding notes in a push it said would “lengthen its debt maturity profile and reduce the cost of its capital structure.”

The issuance boom may prove short lived if the prospect of Fed tightening re-emerges. The UK’s vote to end its 43-year association with the EU has also ushered in a period of uncertainty for global markets that may eventually turn investors off developing-world assets. In June, the BIS reiterated a warning that emerging market non-bank borrowers that have accumulated $3.3 trillion in dollar debt are coming under strain as their economies slow and currencies weaken.

“If we get some volatility in emerging markets, say from political noise coming from the EU, and there is no access to capital markets from some issuers, that could be really negative,” Badr El Moutawakil, an emerging-market credit strategist at Barclays Plc in London said.

Even after the Brexit dust settles, looming elections in the US, Germany, France and possibly the UK mean a lengthening list of potentially disruptive events, strengthening the hands of dovish central bankers. Emerging-market companies have raised $3.71 billion of international bonds since the UK’s referendum on 23 June.

“External factors are more supportive,” said Bantis from Commerzbank. “The default trend of the past quarter is unlikely to continue.” Bloomberg

Source: http://www.livemint.com/Politics/sCZ90ORt2l0cm0rnS0DIqJ/Brexit-offers-lifeline-on-800-billion-emerging-company-debt.html

US, Europe combined infra spending less than China’s

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Despite a crying need for better infrastructure, investment in it has actually fallen in 10 major economies since the financial crisis, including the US, according to a new study by the McKinsey Global Institute. Meanwhile, China is still going gangbusters on roads, bridges, sewers, and everything else that makes a country run.

“China spends more on economic infrastructure annually than North America and Western Europe combined,” according to the report published Wednesday.

Economists around the world have been arguing that now is a great time to invest in infrastructure because interest rates are super-low and the global economy could use the spending jolt. “Is anyone proud of Kennedy airport?” Harvard University economist Lawrence Summers likes to ask.

The MGI report cites 10 countries where infrastructure spending fell as a share of gross domestic product from 2008 to 2013: the US, UK, Italy, Australia, South Korea, Brazil, India, Russia, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia. The study counts 11 economies, but that’s because it lists the European Union as a separate entity.

In contrast to the widespread declines, the institute says, infrastructure spending grew as a share of GDP in Japan, Germany, France, Canada, Turkey, South Africa and China. The chart from the MGI report shows China’s strength in infrastructure spending. Its bar is the highest. There’s such a thing as too much infrastructure spending, of course. At current rates of investment, China, Japan, and Australia are likely to exceed their needs between now and 2030, the McKinsey & Co-affiliated think tank says. To fund more public infrastructure, the report favours raising user charges such as highway tolls, among other measures.

To encourage more private investment in infrastructure, MGI argues for increasing “regulatory certainty” and giving investors “the ability to charge prices that produce an acceptable risk-adjusted return.”

 

Source:  http://www.business-standard.com/article/international/us-europe-combined-infra-spending-less-than-china-s-116061600030_1.html

India records 10-year low in public-private investments: World Bank

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India recorded a 10-year low in investments in public-private sector in the year 2015, adding to contraction that pulled down the global investment to below its five-year average of $124.1 billion, the World Bank has said.

In its latest annual report, the World Bank said global investment in 2015 decreased to $111.6 billion, below the five-year average of $124.1 billion from 2010 to 2014.

“This contraction resulted from lower investments in Brazil, China and India,” the World Bank said on Monday in its latest report on Private Participation in Infrastructure Database.

“India recorded a 10-year low in investments, as only six road projects — usually a rich source of PPI over the past 10 years – reached financial closure,” the World Bank said.

In South Asia, there were 43 deals for a combined total of $5.6 billion that closed in the region, representing 5 per cent of the total investment — a decline of 82 per cent from the five-year average of $30.5 billion.

“Consistent with historical trends, India generated a majority of the projects (36 out of 43); Pakistan had four; Nepal, two; and Bangladesh, one. Notably, 26 of the 36 projects in India, amounting to $2.0 billion, targeted renewable energy, while all of Pakistan’s projects, totalling $749.9 million, solely focussed on renewables,” the Bank said.

Solar energy investments climbed 72 per cent higher than the last five year average, while renewables attracted nearly two-thirds of investments with private participation, it said.

Global private infrastructure investment in 2015 mostly remained steady at $111.6 billion when compared to the previous year, it said.

Among the most notable, commitments in Brazil were only $4.5 billion in 2015 — a sharp decline from $47.2 billion the previous year, reversing a trend of growing investments, it said.

“Investment in China also fell significantly below its 5-, 10-, and 20-year averages, as the average transaction dropped to $63 million,” it said.

By number of projects, however, these three historical heavyweights took the lead, with 131 of the 300 global deals, or 44 per cent of all projects.

Still their combined investment of $11.6 billion only made up 10 per cent of the global total, compared to 54 per cent in 2014, which was also the annual average over the previous four years.

According to the World Bank, global private infrastructure investment in 2015, though on par with the previous year, was 10 per cent lower than the previous five-year average because of dwindling commitments in China, Brazil, and India.

“The data finds that investments in other emerging economies increased rapidly to $99.9 billion, representing a 92 per cent year-over-year increase,” said Clive Harris, Practice Manager, Public-Private Partnerships, World Bank Group.

Sumitomo likely to acquire 44% stake in Excel Crop Care

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Japanese conglomerate Sumitomo is at an advanced stage of negotiations to acquire a substantial equity stake in Excel Crop CareBSE -0.87 % , a Mumbai-headquartered listed company. The proposed deal could pave the way for the Japanese group to own about 44% shares of the pesticides and agrochemicals company for a total consideration ofRs 1,200-1,300 crore.

Sumitomo plans to buy out stake of Excel promoters — the Shroff family — holding 24.7% equity as well as two financial investors together owning close to 19% of the shares. ET’s email to Dipesh Shroff, managing director of Excel Crop Care, and Sumitomo Chemical went unanswered.

There have been several rounds of talks between officials of Sumitomo Chemical and the Excel management, and indications are that the deal may be signed in June. Nufarm, the Australian crop protection and specialist seeds company, owns more than 14% and is likely to retain its strategic stake in Excel Crop Care.

According to a report by Avendus Capital, global players are looking at India to increase their market share, add to their product portfolio , and strengthen their supply base in specialty and agrochemicals. “The Indian agrochemicals market is expected to grow rapidly (about 12% CAGR over 2014-19) with increase in farmer awareness, improvement in rural income and increase in pressure for improving productivity,” said Preet Mohan Singh, executive director, Avendus Capital.

The Shroffs are also the promoters of Excel Industries, a specialty chemicals company, and co-promoters of Aimco Pesticides in which they control a little over 25%. Before entering into any agreement with Sumitomo, the Shroffs are expected to conclude the inter se transfer of their holding to the other promoter family of Aimco. Excel Crop Care has 1.13% equity interest in Excel Industries.

Besides Shroffs, the other two shareholders of Excel Crop Care who may sell their shares to Sumitomo are Ratnabali Capital Markets (holding 14.99%) and Ratnabali Investments (3.95%). Among the institutional shareholders of Excel Crop Care are Life Insurance Corporation (6.58%) and DSP Blackrock (1.92%).

Excel Crop Care’s consolidated net profit for the quarter ended March 31, 2016 was Rs 7.6 crore as against Rs 1.7 crore in the year ago period, on total income of Rs 188.6 crore (Rs 205.6 crore). The Excel Crop Care stock has been trading at around Rs 1,109, against 52-week high and low of Rs 1,247 and Rs 750, respectively.

M&A activities in sectors like agro and specialty chemicals is expected to pick up, said Avendus, adding that the stride towards food security will also increase the significance of agrochemicals. An estimated 85% of India’s crop loss (worth close to $20 billion) is caused by pest infestation, disease and weeds and is prevented by the use of agrochemicals.

India exports agrochemicals to countries like the us , France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Brazil, Colombia, China, Vietnam and Indonesia.

Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/52392474.cms