ADB trims developing Asia growth forecast; India on track

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ADB today marginally cut economic growth projection for Asia and Pacific region for 2016, though India is likely to meet 7.4 per cent and 7.8 per cent growth forecast for this and the following year.

Asian Development Bank said it has cut its 2016 growth projection for developing economies in Asia and the Pacific to 5.6 per cent from earlier forecast of 5.7 per cent.

“South Asia, meanwhile is expected to be the fastest growing subregion, led by India, whose economy has shrugged off global headwinds and is on track to meet ADB’s March fiscal year 2016 (year to March 2017) projected growth target of 7.4 per cent, supported by brisk consumer spending and an uptick in the rural economy”, ADB said in a supplement to its Asian Development Outlook 2016 report.

“Although the Brexit vote has affected developing Asia’s currency and stock markets, its impact on the real economy in the short term is expected to be small,” said Shang-Jin Wei, ADB’s Chief Economist.

However, in light of the tepid growth prospects in the major industrial economies, policy makers should remain vigilant and be prepared to respond to external shocks to ensure growth in the region remains robust,” Wei said.

ADB said it now forecasts 2016 growth for the developing economies at 5.6 per cent, below its previous projection of 5.7 per cent. For 2017, growth is seen unchanged at 5.7 per cent.

Growth in 2016 and 2017 is led by South Asia, and India in particular, which continues to expand strongly, while China is on track to meet earlier growth projections, it said.

In Southeast Asia, growth projections for the subregion in the 2016 and 2017 remain unchanged at 4.5 per cent and 4.8 per cent, respectively with solid performances by most economies in the first half of 2016 driven by private consumption.

The exception was Vietnam where the economy came under pressure from a worsening drought that caused a contraction in the agriculture sector, it added.

ADB said growth in Asia and the Pacific’s developing economies for 2016 and 2017 will remain solid as firm performances from South Asia, East Asia and Southeast Asia help offset softness from the US economy, and near-term market shocks from the Brexit vote.

It has projected inflation for developing Asia at 2.8 per cent for 2016 and 3 per cent or 2017- a 0.3 percentage point rise for each year from the previous forecasts.

“The rise is largely due to a recovery in oil and food prices,” it added.

The Manila headquartered ADB is owned by 67 members – 48 from the region. In 2015, ADB assistance totalled $27.2 billion, including co-financing of $10.7 billion.

Source :
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/53263953.cms

Alternative Investment Funds coming to India

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Markets regulator SEBI is learnt to be in process of creating a new category of Alternative Investment Funds(AIFs) to encourage long-term funds to use the AIF route to invest in the listed space.

 

Sources privy to the development said the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) will reclassify the existing category III into two groups – one comprising long-term funds like pension funds and the other consisting of hedge funds and other arbitrage funds who look to invest on a short-term basis.

 

Further, SEBI is also expected to consult the government in providing a ‘pass through’ status to the new category of AIF on par with Category I and Category II AIFs. According to legal experts, this categorisation would help the long-term overseas funds to receive a favourable tax treatment in the AIF space as currently they are taxed on par with arbitrage funds.

 

As per the current tax regulations, any investments made in listed companies which are held for more than 12 months are termed long-term investments, while others are called short-term investments. Capital gains tax is applicable only for short-term investments and investors needn’t pay any capital gains tax in case of long-term holding.

 

However, if a fund invests in the listed space through the AIF route, irrespective of the nature of holding, the investor would be taxed at uniform slab applicable for category III AIFs.

 

“Current SEBI AIF regulations are like one size fits all. Category III AIFs comprise several types of short-term and long-term funds and the purpose of each of them is different. However, the tax they are paying is the same. Long-term funds would rather take the direct route or would invest via P-notes instead of AIFs,” said a lawyer.

 

These measures are a part of efforts made by SEBI and union government to promote AIFs. During the union budget 2015, the government had provided pass-through status for Category I and Category II AIFs. Last November, the government had allowed foreign funds to invest in AIFs through the direct route.

 

In the last two years, inflows into AIFs have witnessed a significant increase. According to a SEBI data, cumulative funds raised via the AIFs as on March 31, 2016 was `22,691.18 crore — a fourfold increase compared to `5,847.5 in Q2FY15.

 

According to Jay Gandhi, Partner at Shardul Amarchand Mangaldas, the SEBI AIF regulations have found great traction in the market in a relatively short period of time. “The AIF regulations have permitted investment managers great flexibility in structuring various kind of fund structures targeted at specific segments of the investor community,” Gandhi said.

Source: http://www.financialexpress.com/markets/alternative-investment-funds-coming-india-heres-need-know/314881/

FIPB clears 6 FDI proposals worth Rs 180 crore

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Inter-ministerial body FIPB today cleared six foreign direct investment proposals worth about Rs 180 crore.

 

The Foreign Investment Promotion Board has cleared six proposals including those of Janalaxami Finance and Turmeric Vision, a Finance Ministry official said.

 

The panel headed by Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das had considered 15 proposals.

 

The official further said four investments proposals were rejected while decisions on five were deferred for want of more inputs.

 

India allows FDI in over 90 per cent sectors via automatic route. However, investment proposals in sensitive sectors like telecom and banking go through FIPB.

 

In last two years, the government has taken a series of reforms measures to liberalise FDI regime. Last month, it announced FDI liberalisation in nine sectors such as civil aviation, retail and private security services. This was the current government’s second round of relaxation in these rules.

 

During 2015-16, FDI into the country increased by 29 per cent to $40 billion from $30.93 billion in the previous fiscal.

 

Source : http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/53175869.cms

Brexit to hit eurozone growth, says IMF

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The International Monetary Fund has cuts its economic growth forecasts for the eurozone in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union.

The eurozone is expected to grow by 1.6% this year and 1.4% in 2017. Before the referendum the IMF had predicted growth of 1.7% for both years.

The IMF also revised down its 2018 growth forecast to 1.6% from 1.7%.

It said medium-term growth prospects for the 19-member bloc were “mediocre” due to high unemployment and debt.

Mahmood Pradhan, deputy director of the IMF’s European Department, said the outlook could worsen if drawn-out negotiations between the UK and the EU led to a continuation of recent trends in financial markets – where investors have shunned riskier assets.

“If that risk aversion is prolonged, we think the growth impact could be larger and at this point, it is very difficult to tell how long that period lasts,” he said in a conference call.

The revised 2017 figure was the IMF’s “best case” scenario, assuming a deal was struck that allowed the UK to retain its access to the EU’s single market, Mr Pradhan said.

However, if the UK decided not to maintain close ties with the EU and chose to rely on World Trade Organization rules, there could be “major disruptions,” he said.

Mr Pradhan added it was “very, very early days to have any strong sense of confidence” about what the eventual relationship between the UK and EU would be.

In the medium-term, challenges such as high unemployment and persistent structural weaknesses in the euro area would continue to weigh on growth, the IMF said.

“As a result, growth five years ahead is expected to be about 1.5%, with headline inflation reaching only 1.7%,” the report said.

It also said that as the euro area was such a big player in world trade, any slowdown could have an impact on other economies, including emerging markets, but it expected this to be “limited”.

Source: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36743862

JPMorgan Chase & Co gets RBI approval to open 3 new branches

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JPMorgan Chase & Co today said it has received Reserve Bank’s approval to open three more branches in the country.

The bank will open new branches at New Delhi, Devanahalli (near Bengaluru) and Paranur (near Chennai) in the next few months, it said in a statement.

“We are seeing an increasing level of cross-location and cross-border activity among our clients as they capture business opportunities driven by the country’s economic growth.

These branches will further enhance our capability to better serve our clients in India and overseas,” JPMorgan Chase Bank India MD and CEO Madhav Kalyan said.

JPMorgan will provide all existing products and services through these new branches, including cash management, trade finance and foreign-currency payments.

At present, the bank serves its clients from Mumbai branch.

“Our strategy is to follow our clients’ priorities. The expansion endorses our long-term commitment to India, a key market for JPMorgan, as well as for many of our clients,” JPMorgan South & South East Asia CEO Kalpana Morparia said.

Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/53008936.cms

India must activate ‘stalled engines’ to sustain 7.6% growth: World Bank

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India will maintain its growth rate of 7.6 per cent GDP growth in 2016-17, which would accelerate to 7.7 per cent in 2017-18 and 7.8 per cent in 2018-19, the World Bank said on Monday.

 

But for this, India will need to “activate the stalled engines”, including agricultural growth and rural demand, trade and private investment, while ensuring demand from urban households and public investments.

 

In its report ‘India Development Update- Financing Double Digit Growth’, the World Bank said the economy’s potential growth rate is about 7.4 per cent to 7.5 per cent.

 

“The outlook for the coming year is favourable and robust,” said Frederico Gil Sander, Senior Country Economist, World Bank, and main author of the report.

 

The report, also prescribed means for India to attain the elusive double-digit growth. This would depend on various factors, including higher participation of women in the labour force, productivity growth such as business environment reform agenda and GST as well as a pick-up in private investment.

 

The World Bank’s forecast is however, not as optimistic as the Finance Ministry that is eyeing 8 per cent growth this fiscal after 7.6 per cent growth last fiscal.

 

However, Onno Ruhl, Country Director, World Bank (India), said improved global prospects would also be necessary for double-digit growth in the domestic economy.

 

The report also warned that near-and medium-term risks stem from the banking sector and “its ability to finance private investment which continues to face several impediments in the form of excess global capacity, regulatory and policy challenges, in addition to corporate debt overhang”.

 

It has also suggested two key reforms in the financial sector — accelerating the ongoing transformation of banks to become more market oriented and competitive; and also to address the problem of non-performing assets (NPAs).

 

“India’s financial sector has performed well on many dimensions and can be a reliable pillar of future economic growth,” said Sander.

 

RBI top-level changes

 

While urging for more reforms in the banking sector such as giving fresh capital to banks for governance reforms or giving them tools to manage stress in their balance sheets, the World Bank declined to comment on the impact the top-level change at the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will have on these measures.

 

“We respect the RBI Governor’s decision to return to academia. India has a long history of sound macro-economic policy making and effective and conservative supervisor. There is no reason to expect that it will change,” said Ruhl when asked whether the decision by RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan to not seek a second term would impact banking reforms.

 

Source: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/todays-paper/tp-news/india-must-activate-stalled-engines-to-sustain-76-growth-world-bank/article8753219.ece

HDFC Bank launches SME e-bank

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HDFC Bank, the country’s second largest private sector lender, has launched a digital bank for its small and medium enterprises  (SME) customers. It aims to grow its market share in the hinterlands with this.

“It takes away the hassle of physical availability of a relationship manager and makes banking process faster. We expect this service to take off in a much better way in smaller towns and the hinterlands, as it will save time and manpower. It will help people live in the areas where there is no bank branch close to their home,” said Aseem Dhru, head, business banking. This comes at a time when the bank, traditionally known for its retail  (individual) offerings, has started focusing  on growing its corporate book. With this, the bank has managed to cross the Rs 1-lakh-crore mark in its corporate book for the first time in FY16, more than double the Rs 47,000 crore three years ago.  However, on the business banking side, the bank had seen some pressure on asset quality and had checked the growth in the last few quarters.  Dhru said despite this, the bank has been growing its business banking book at a faster pace than its peers.

“At the end of December 2015, lending to SME sector has seen de-growth by five per cent but HDFC Bank has grown its SME lending by 29 per cent. So, we are very bullish on this segment and looking at increasingly reaching out to rural and semi-urban areas in a big way.”

With credit growth in the corporate sector around single digits annually, banks had reduced lending to the the sector because of their dependency on large companies for payments.

However, bankers say SME players have started reducing concentration risk by focusing on only a few corporate players and have been broad-basing their growth , giving the banks the ability to lend to them more comfortably.

Source: http://www.business-standard.com/article/finance/hdfc-bank-looks-to-grow-market-share-in-hinterland-with-its-sme-e-bank-116061900519_1.html