17 Jan 2017

Demonetisation hits Indian economy; IMF cuts FY18 growth 100bps, 40bps on note ban alone, to 6.6%

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The downward revision, if it translates into reality, will let China temporarily reclaim the fastest growing major economy tag from India

The International Monetary Fund on Monday slashed India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast by 100 basis points (bps) to 6.6% in FY17 and by 40 bps to 7.2% in FY18, citing a consumption slump after the demonetisation of high-value notes.

The downward revision, if it translates into reality, will let China reclaim, albeit temporarily, the fastest growing major economy tag from India. China’s economy is now expected to grow by 6.7% in 2016, 10 bps higher than the fund’s October 2016 forecast. The communist country is expected to clock 6.5% in 2017, 30 bps higher than estimated earlier, again ceding the fastest growing economy status to India.

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“In India, the growth forecast for the current and next fiscal year were trimmed by 1 percentage point and 0.4 percentage point, respectively, primarily due to the temporary negative consumption shock induced by cash shortages and payment disruptions associated with the recent currency note withdrawal and exchange initiative,” the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook Update.

The revision comes barely four months after it revised upward by 20 bps India’s FY17 GDP growth to 7.6% in October 2016. The IMF’s cut in growth outlook for India is sharper than the recent World Bank’s 60 bps reduction in its India GDP growth outlook to 7% for FY17. In its first advance estimate, India’s Central Statistical Office has projected that the economy will slow to 7.1% in the current financial year from 7.6% in 2015-16. Given the post-demonetisation hit to consumption and investment, many analysts said these might prove to be overestimates.

Global growth for 2016 is now estimated at 3.1%, in line with the IMF’s October 2016 forecast. Economic activity in both advanced economies as well as emerging market and developing economies is forecast to accelerate in 2017-18, with global growth projected to be 3.4% and 3.6%, respectively, again unchanged from the October forecasts.

Advanced economies are now projected to grow by 1.9% in 2017 and 2% percent in 2018, 0.1 and 0.2 percentage point more than in the October forecast, respectively. As noted, this forecast is particularly uncertain in the light of potential changes in the policy stance of the United States under the incoming Donald Trump administration.

Source: http://www.financialexpress.com/economy/demonetisation-hits-indian-economy-imf-cuts-fy18-growth-100bps-40bps-on-note-ban-alone-to-6-6/510822/

17 Jan 2017

Tamil Nadu joins UDAY scheme

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The southern state, which became the 21st state to join Ujwal Discom Assurance Yojana (UDAY), is also one of four states with largest accumulated debt of over Rs 40,000 crore.

After having dithered for over a year, Tamil Nadu on Monday signed up for the center’s scheme for revival of financially stressed state-owned power distribution companies. The southern state, which became the 21st state to join Ujwal Discom Assurance Yojana (UDAY), is also one of four states with largest accumulated debt of over Rs 40,000 crore.

With Tamil Nadu on board, UDAY has now covered 92% of country’s discom debt. “Tamil Nadu would derive an overall net benefit of approximately Rs 11,000 crores through UDAY, by way of savings in interest cost, reduction in AT&C and transmission losses, interventions in energy efficiency, coal reforms etc,” the government said in a statement. Other states with huge debt burden include Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, all of which are part of the scheme.

According to the scheme, the state government will take over 75%of debt amounting to Rs 30,420 crore from the discom. The scheme also provides for the balance debt to be re-priced or issued as state guaranteed discom bonds, at coupon rates around 3-4% less than the average existing interest rate.

“The state would have savings of about Rs 950 crore in annual interest cost through reduction of debt and through reduced interest rates on the balance debt,” the government said. It added that reduction in aggregate technical and commercial (AT&C) losses and transmission losses to 13.5% and 3.7% respectively is likely to bring additional revenue of around Rs 1,601 crores to the state distribution company.

UDAY was launched by the power ministry on November 20, 2015 with an aim to reduce financial distress among state discoms as it has been preventing them from buying power.

Source: http://www.financialexpress.com/economy/tamil-nadu-joins-uday-scheme/502490/

15 Jan 2017

Yellen Sees No Serious Short-Term Obstacles for U.S. Economy

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Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the U.S. economy faces no serious short-term obstacles, though it must deal with important long-term challenges of low productivity and growing inequality.

“Unemployment has now reached a low level, the labor market is generally strong and wage growth is beginning to pick up,” Yellen said Thursday in a meeting with educators. “Inflation has moved up from a very low level, and it’s a little bit under our 2 percent objective, but it’s pretty close.”

The Fed increased interest rates last month for the first time in a year, to a range of 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent, after judging that near-term risks to the outlook “appear roughly balanced.” Policy makers also indicated they expect to hike three times in 2017, according to the median estimate of their quarterly forecast.

Unemployment was 4.7 percent in December, a slight uptick from November when it reached 4.6 percent, its lowest level since 2007. The Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, minus food and energy components, was 1.6 percent in the 12 months through November.

Yellen said productivity, a “key determinant” of living standards over the long term, remained at historically low levels and economists were struggling to understand why. Related to low productivity, she said a greater share of income gains were going to workers with higher education, causing inequality to rise in the U.S.

Education and workforce development have been frequent topics of discussion for Fed officials in recent years as technology continues to drive changes in the workplace. Yellen told graduating college students in Baltimore last month that career success will increasingly be linked to education.

Yellen on Thursday was speaking to teachers gathered in the board room at the Fed’s headquarters in Washington and, via web cast, to others through the country. She also touted reforms to banking regulation that followed the financial crisis aimed at making the financial sector safer and more resilient.

“These are very important changes,” Yellen said. “I certainly wouldn’t want to see them rolled back.”

Members of the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump have said they will seek to dismantle the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, the principle legislative response to the crisis.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-13/yellen-sees-no-serious-short-term-obstacles-for-u-s-economy

13 Jan 2017

Bankruptcy and Insolvency Code will drive creation of a new debt market

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The Bankruptcy and Insolvency Code will drive growth of debt market in India, which hardly exists in corporate and business financing, Dr. MS Sahoo, Chairman, Bankruptcy Board of India

The Bankruptcy and Insolvency Code will drive growth of debt market in India, which hardly exists in corporate and business financing, Dr. MS Sahoo, Chairman, Bankruptcy Board of India told Fe. While the country has a matured and bullish equity market, the debt market in India was yet to develop. The board was not concerned with default in bank credits or about the rising NPAs. It would mainly look into private creditors interest if their money got locked.

“Banks have some protection in the areas of corporate financing but non banking debt is non existent. Bankruptcy and Insolvency Code would be instrumental in the growth of non bank debt financing, which would lead to reduce dominance of banks in areas of credit.

With a debt market created, debt supplies would ease out and lending rates both for the non banking creditors as well as for the banks would be market driven. “At present demand is chasing supplies but it will be other way round with supplies chasing demand,” Mamata Binani, chairperson, Institute of Company Secretaries of India (ICSI) said at an interactive session organised by the MCC Chamber of Commerce.

She said the code will enable to solve problems of many assets lying dead for years in dispute. Such assets could be quickly liquidated without the judiciary’s intervention and unsecured creditors will always have the first chance to realize its money from the business. The board has estimated that Rs 25,000 crore, which is locked in dead assets, is going to get unlocked in next five years.

While Sahoo made clear that the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Board would not deal with corporate frauds and inter managerial disputes, a creditor who has given unsecured loans should trigger the first available opportunity if he sees his credit at risk.

It will be a creditors committee, which will work on a strict time line, to resolve insolvency. The creditors will not be bound by any set rules to resolve insolvency or debtors problem. They will have flexibility to take their own decision and find a way out and that might come in the form debt restructuring or liquidation. However, if liquidation is unable to recover a debt, it may be a loss for both the creditor and the debtor, Alok Dhir, founder and and managing partner of Dhir & Dhir Associates said.

“But working with this code will gradually prove what is the right approach and there may be changes brought in the law,” Sahoo said adding that the board was also working on a framework for direct liquidation by passing insolvency resolution and the framework would be ready by February- March. But to begin the process on code a company has to address to the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT), while for personal insolvency, a claimant will have to go to the Debt Recovery Tribunal (DRT). But the framework for personal insolvency was not yet ready and it would take some time before a party could move the DRT, Sahoo said.

However, the NCLT with 11 benches across the country was already functional with the code and there were chances that 93,000 pending BIFR cases could be referred to the board, many of which might not have to begin the process on code but through pre- pack solutions, Sahoo felt. He said the board has selected 974 insolvency professionals on a temporary basis and would begin certification through tests for inducting regular professionals.

Source: http://www.financialexpress.com/market/bankruptcy-and-insolvency-code-will-drive-creation-of-a-new-debt-market/506028/

21 Dec 2016

Transfer pricing treaty for investors from cyprus

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The government on Monday afternoon clarified that according to the amended Cyprus treaty, investors need to pay only 10% tax with retrospective effect from November 1, 2013, instead of the 30% tax they have already paid. While bringing in clarity on this matter, a lacunae as far as transfer pricing still remains.

The genesis of the problem lies in 2013. The government had, on November 1, 2013, blacklisted Cyprus as an investment destination through a notification. So, investments made through Cyprus attracted 30% tax (TDS) instead of 10% tax under the original India-Cyprus treaty.

The government had blacklisted Cyprus after the island country had refused to share some data related to investors with India.

The government also said that transfer pricing could also apply on returns given to Cyprus investors by Indian companies.

However, the government later amended the treaty (through a notification on December 14, 2016) after Cyprus agreed to co-operate on sharing investor data. Under the amended treaty, the higher taxation part was rescinded. But the transfer pricing portion still remains unclear.

What led to a cause of worry was the fact that many private equity investors had paid 30% tax between 2013 and 2016 on returns from Indian investments. The government clarification on Monday came as many foreign investors were worried that the 10% tax would not be applicable for the three years between 2013 and 2016. However, following Monday’s clarification, they can now claim refunds from the tax department.

Most of the investors used Cyprus as a pooling vehicle to invest in Indian real estate. Most of the investments were in debt vehicles. In some cases, while the equity investment were made either in listed or unlisted companies through Mauritius or Singapore, debt investments were made through Cyprus.

Transfer pricing conundrum
Transfer pricing is normally only applied in cases where two companies— one an Indian and another multinational— do a merger or acquisition. People close to the development said that some of the transfer pricing adjustments could be made in the coming months. In cases where the tax officers have already gone ahead with the transfer pricing procedures, it may not be possible to undo it, say experts.

Treat for genuine investors, though need for clarity in Tax Rules
This reworked Tax Treaty comes very much after India demonstrated flexibility and lifted the so called sanctions after Cyprus agreed to share information on tax evaders. The reworked tax treaty between India and Cyprus for effective information sharing is also a step towards global cooperation on tax transparency. It will provide relief to genuine investors in Cyprus. But investors loathe uncertainty. The need is for stability and certainty in the tax system, and therefore tax rules must be clear.

Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/56073396.cms

30 Nov 2016

RBI relaxes cash withdrawal rule

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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has now said people depositing money with banks in legal tender (meaning, not in the now-banned Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes) on or after Tuesday are allowed to withdraw the equivalent amount without any restriction, preferably in high-value denomination.

It said it took this decision on careful consideration, as certain depositors were “hesitating to deposit their monies into bank accounts in view of the current limits on cash withdrawals from accounts”.

This would mean, for instance, that business owners who deposit cash at the end of a day can now go to a bank and withdraw money as they did before demonetisation, to the extent they had deposited in existing legal tender. All business owners, small or big, handle huge cash on a daily basis and typically operate through current accounts on which banks don’t offer any interest rate but put no restriction in withdrawal.

On November 14, the central bank had said banks should maintain a separate record for deposits done in old notes and the valid notes, customer-wise.

Source: http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/rbi-relaxes-cash-withdrawal-rule-116112801294_1.html

28 Nov 2016

Demonetisation: Amidst cash chaos Fintech startup Capital Float opens its coffers for small merchants

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Advertisement The fintech startups has partnered with Point of Sale (PoS) card machine vendors to provide merchants quick and easy access to loans. (Reuters)

Amidst cash chaos and consequent surge in digital payment due to government’s demonetisation drive, a Bangalore based digital lending firm for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), Capital Float has decided to offer quick and easy loans to small merchants.

The fintech startups has partnered with Point of Sale (PoS) card machine vendors to provide merchants quick and easy access to loans.

Under this offer, any merchant who is using the services of vendors like Mswipe, Petpooja, ICICI Merchant Services, MRL Postnet, Bijlipay and Pine Labs for transations would be eligible for upto 200% finance on sales from their card machines. The merchant would be able to repay the loan as nominal percentage of their daily card settlements.

Capital Float, a Non-Banking Financial Company (NBFC) has a product called ‘Merchant Cash Advance’ which is targeted towards any merchant that accepts cards payment in exchange of the goods and services. The company underwrites such borrowers according to their monthly card sales and offers loans up to twice the amount of their average monthly card sales.

With the increase in card transactions due to demonetisation, company is expecting a surge for its Merchant Cash Advance offering. According to company officials, with the increase in card transactions, now more number of merchants will qualify under the loan criteria and also avail larger loan amounts as compared to the past.

Source: http://www.financialexpress.com/industry/demonetisation-amidst-cash-chaos-fintech-startup-capital-float-opens-its-coffers-for-small-merchants/458261/