FPIs pump over Rs 19,700 crore in November, highest in eight months

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After taking a break from buying into Indian equities in August and September, FPIs bought equities in abundance in November.

Foreign investors pumped over Rs 19,700 crore into the country’s stock markets in November, the highest in eight months, mainly due to government’s plan to recapitalise PSU banks and surge in India’s ranking in the World Bank’s ease of doing business.

In addition, such investors put in Rs 530 crore in the debt markets during the period under review.

According to depositories data, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) invested a net amount of Rs 19,728 crore in equities last month.

This is the highest net investment by FPIs since March, when they had poured in Rs 30,906 crore in the equity market.It has been a tremendous journey for the Indian equity markets in 2017. After taking a break from buying into Indian equities in August and September, FPIs bought equities in abundance in November.

The strong inflow could be largely attributed to the government’s decision to recapitalise public-sector banks, which is expected to enhance lending and propel economic growth, said Morningstar India’s senior analyst manager (research) Himanshu Srivastava.

“This is particularly seen as a positive step after the questions have been raised from various quarters on the government’s ability to effectively implement economic reforms. Further, the slow pace of economic growth was also believed to be due to rising non performing assets (NPAs) problem in public sector banks, hence this decision provided a much-needed impetus to FPIs to again look back at Indian equity space,” he added.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley had announced the PSU bank recapitalisation plan of Rs 2.11 trillion, out of which Rs 1.35 trillion will come from recapitalisation bonds, and the rest from markets and budgetary support.

Additionally, the news about India faring well in the World Bank’s Ease of Business index and a jump in core sector growth also turned the tide in India’s favour, Srivastava said.

India gained 30 places in the World Bank’s ease of doing business index for 2018 to 100th among 190 nations.

“These (bank’s recapitalisation plan and world bank’s ranking) and positive developments in the recent times provided a much-needed breather to FPIs who were concerned about the short-term impact of demonetisation and goods and services tax (GST) on the domestic economy and sluggish pace of economic recovery,” he added.

Yet another positive piece of news has come from Moody’s Investor Services, which upgraded its India rating by a notch to ‘Baa2’ from ‘Baa3’ with a stable outlook, citing improved economic growth prospects driven by the government reforms.
Overall, FPIs have invested Rs 53,800 crore in equities so far in 2017 and another Rs 1.46 lakh crore in debt markets.

SEBI warns of rising external debt risks as masala bonds surge

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The rupee-denominated bonds, popularly known as masala bonds, are likely to add to the nation’s external liabilities even if they don’t hold any risks to currency movement, a top SEBI official said.

The rupee-denominated bonds, popularly known as masala bonds, are likely to add to the nation’s external liabilities even if they don’t hold any risks to currency movement, a top Sebi official said on Wednesday.

“When money flows into the country from foreign investments, we are attracting some risks and it is not currency risk alone. Masala bonds don’t hold any currency risks but at the same time, the external liability of the country goes up. This needs to be kept in mind,” Sebi whole- time member G Mahalingam said here.

“And a huge amount of foreign inflows at a time when the currency has been substantially appreciating is something the regulators must be concerned about,” he said, addressing a capital markets summit organised by industry lobby Ficci.

The masala bonds are debt instruments through which designated domestic entities can raise funds by accessing overseas capital markets, while the bond investors hold the currency risk. In fact, the World Bank arm IFC thus far has raised the largest amount through this instrument.

According to some estimates, the masala bonds accounted for 39 per cent of the total ECBs of USD 7.39 billion reported by the Reserve Bank in the fourth quarter of FY17, while the approvals for the same rose to USD 2.9 billion over USD 0.8 billion in the third quarter.

For the full fiscal of 2017, the aggregate stood at USD 4.6 billion, according to a recent Icra data.

Of the total masala bonds of USD 4.59 billion approved during FY17, 55 per cent were for onward lending in domestic markets, 24 per cent for refinancing of the rupee loans and 14 per cent were for general corporate purposes.

Mahalingam said the Sebi is in advanced stage of talks with other regulators on allowing participation of FPIs in commodity derivatives market.

On the mutual fund industry, he said the sector should try to bring down its total expense ratio which is far higher than the comfort level. “It is time for mutual funds to shrink its margins attract more retail investors.”

He said benchmarking of returns will be healthy step for the overall industry.

Source: MoneyControl.com

Record reserves turn costly cash pile for RBI

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As India’s foreign-exchange reserves march toward the unprecedented $400 billion mark, its central bank faces a costly conundrum.

As India’s foreign-exchange reserves march toward the unprecedented $400 billion mark, its central bank faces a costly conundrum. To keep the rupee stable and exports competitive, it is having to mop up inflows that’s adding cash to the local banking system. Problem is, banks are flush with money following Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s demonetization program last year, leaving them already struggling to pay interest on the deposits in an environment where loans aren’t picking up. The resulting need to absorb both dollar- and rupee-liquidity is stretching the Reserve Bank of India’s range of tools and complicating policy. Costs to mop up these inflows have eroded the RBI’s earnings, halving its annual dividend to the government. “The RBI would be paying more on its sterilization bills than it gets on its reserve assets, so it would cut into its profits,” said Brad W. Setser, senior fellow at New York-based thinktank Council on Foreign Relations. “Selling sterilization paper in a country with a relatively high nominal interest rate like India is costly.”

Governor Urjit Patel aims to revert to neutral liquidity in the coming months from the current surplus. Lenders parked an average 2.9 trillion rupees ($45 billion) of excess cash with the central bank each day this month compared with 259 billion rupees the same time last year. This peaked at 5.5 trillion in March. The surge in liquidity has pushed the RBI to resume open-market bond sales as well as auctions of longer duration repos besides imposing costs on the government for special instruments such as cash management bills and market stabilization scheme bonds. Meanwhile foreign investors have poured $18.5 billion into Indian equities and bonds in the year through June, during which period the RBI has added $23.4 billion to its reserves. Its forward dollar book has also increased to a net long position of $17.1 billion end-June from a net short $7.4 billion a year ago. “My guess is reserves over 20 percent of GDP would start to raise questions about cost – but that is just a guess,” said Setser. India’s reserves have ranged between 15 and 20 percent of GDP since 2008 global crisis — a level that’s neither too low to create vulnerability or too high indicating excess intervention, he said.

Consistent buildup in the forward book may have cost the RBI some 70 billion rupees, while total liquidity-absorption costs due to the demonetization deluge from November to June were 100 billion rupees, according to calculations by Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. The RBI paid another 50 billion rupees to 70 billion rupees to print banknotes, the bank estimates. A weakening dollar would also have led to losses due to the foreign-currency cash pile, which has traditionally been dominated by the greenback. The Bloomberg Dollar Index has fallen 8.5 percent this year. After all these expenses, the RBI transferred 306.6 billion rupees as annual dividend to the government, compared with 749 billion rupees budgeted to come from the RBI and financial institutions. More clarity will emerge with the RBI’s annual report typically published in the final week of August. “This disturbs the fiscal math for the year through March 2018,” said Madhavi Arora, an economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank. Assuming everything else stays constant, she estimates the budget deficit may come in at 3.4 percent of gross domestic product rather than the government’s goal of 3.2 percent.

Apart from the high costs, there’s another dimension to the surge in liquidity. The RBI could face a shortage of bonds it places as collateral with its creditors. It is said to be preparing a fresh proposal to the government for creation of a window — the so-called standing deposit facility — which doesn’t require any collateral. “As the excess liquidity challenge looks set to persist, the RBI will need more tools to manage this, such as the standing deposit facility,” economists at Morgan Stanley, including Derrick Kam, wrote in an Aug. 16 note. He predicts that at the current rate of accretion, foreign-exchange reserves will hit $400 billion by Sept. 8 from $393 billion this month.

Source: Financial Express

Foreign exchange reserves in India hit record high of $382 bn, grows 6% in 2017

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Foreign exchange reserves touched a record high of $381.96 billion as on June 16, compared $381.16 billion in the previous week, the Reserve Bank of India said in its weekly statistical supplement on Friday. Foreign currency assets (FCAs), the largest component of the foreign exchange reserves, increased to $358.08 billion from $357.28 billion in the previous week, central bank data showed. Expressed in US dollar terms, FCAs include the effects of appreciation/depreciation of non-US currencies, such as the euro, pound and the yen, held in the reserves. So far in 2017, foreign exchange reserves have grown 6% and have touched record levels five times since April, as the RBI has aggressively been buying dollars to prevent a sudden jump in the rupee.

The central bank has been buying dollars on a daily basis, both in the spot market as well as in the forward market, to limit the appreciation of the local currency, which has been gaining steadily, traders said. The rupee has gained about 5% since the beginning of the year. Among other factors, strong demand for the local currency from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) looking to invest in Indian assets has caused the rupee to appreciate. FPIs have bought Indian shares and bonds worth around $22 billion so far in 2017. Given India’s low current account and fiscal deficits, and the advantage it offers in terms of interest rate differential, traders expect the inflows to continue in the near-term.

The central bank has always maintained that it does not want to influence the exchange rate for the rupee, but would take steps, including intervention in the spot market, to curb extreme volatility. According to the latest available data, the RBI’s outstanding net forward purchases in April stood at $13.55 billion, up from $10.84 billion in the previous month. On the other hand, net purchase in the spot market dropped to $0.57 billion in April from $3.54 billion in March. The RBI publishes data on the sale and purchase of dollar with a lag of two months.

Source: http://www.financialexpress.com/economy/foreign-exchange-reserves-in-india-hit-record-high-of-382-bn-grow-6-pct-in-2017/733287/

Foreign fund inflows hit a record high

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Foreign fund inflows hit a record high. So far this year, India has seen an inflow of nearly Rs 1.25 lakh crore.

The Indian rupee has been one of the best performing currencies among the emerging markets since the beginning of 2017, thanks to robust macroeconomic factors and attractive domestic bond yields. As a result, foreign fund inflows have hit a record.

 

So far this year, India has seen an inflow of nearly Rs 1.25 lakh crore, including Rs 73,200 crore in bonds, against an outflow of Rs 25,500 crore, a year ago. This is higher than foreign fund inflows in the first half of any previous calendar year, even as only the first week of June has got over so far. Given the present economic scenario, rupee is expected to sustain these levels and remain range bound.

 

India’s current account deficit has consistently improved over the years — from 4.8% of GDP in 2012-13 to expected 0.9 per cent in 2016-17, helped by weak oil prices, which constitute as much as 40-50 per cent of India’s imports.

 

With brent crude oil prices continuing to remain weak, down more than 8 per cent in the past two weeks and 1 per cent year-on-year, and the Reserve Bank of India keeping benchmark interest rate unchanged in its Wednesday policy meeting, the rupee is likely to continue to trade at the current levels vis-à-vis the US dollar in the short to medium term.

Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/59046239.cms

 

Foreign investors pour in $4.2 billion in May, mostly in Debt

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According to latest depository data, FPIs invested a net Rs. 7,711 crore in equities last month, while they poured Rs. 19,155 crore in the debt markets.

Foreign investors have pumped $4.2 billion in the country’s capital market in May due to finalisation of GST rates for bulk of the items and prediction of a normal monsoon.

Interestingly, most of the funds have been invested in the debt markets by the foreign portfolio investors (FPIs).

“The differential spread between 10-year bond yields in the US and India is still around 4.5-5 per cent, this, coupled with stable outlook for the Indian currency bodes well for FPI flows into debt market,” Sharekhan Head Advisory Hemang Jani said.

According to latest depository data, FPIs invested a net Rs. 7,711 crore in equities last month, while they poured Rs. 19,155 crore in the debt markets during the period under review, translating into a net inflow of Rs. 26,866 crore ($4.2 billion).

This comes following a net inflow of close to Rs. 94,900 crore in the last three months (February-April) on several factors, including expectations that BJP’s victory in recently held assembly polls will accelerate the pace of reforms.

Prior to that, such investors had pulled out over Rs. 3,496 crore from debt markets in January.

“FPIs sold into Indian equities in the first few days of May. It was only in the second week that they started buying. The most prominent reason is expectation from the government that it would speed up development and economic reforms in their last two years in office before going for elections in 2019.

“The government finalising GST rates and expectation that it will be rolled out on time, in addition to forecast of normal monsoon also led to positive sentiments,” Himanshu Srivastava, Senior Analyst Manager Research at Morningstar India said.

Going forward, there are few challenges but not strong enough to disrupt the current trend. Markets and the rupee are surging higher, which offer a good profit booking opportunity for FPIs. They did that in April and they can again use this opportunity to book profits going forward.

“The flow is largely driven by expectation, and for the flows to sustain, the government has to meet those expectation. Monsoon will be another thing to watch out for as it tends to have big economic implications,” he added.

With the latest inflow, total investment in capital markets (equity and debt) has reached Rs. 1.21 lakh crore this year.

Source: http://profit.ndtv.com/news/market/article-foreign-investors-pour-in-4-2-billion-in-may-mostly-in-debt-1707650

Finnish companies looking for new opportunities in India

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Nina Vaskunlahti, Ambassador of Finland to India Paul Noronha

India is becoming one of the favorite destinations for investments in manufacturing, clean tech, infrastructure and hi-tech for Finnish companies.

Nina Vaskunlahti, Ambassador of Finland to India, in an interview with BusinessLine said, “There is increasing interest in economic cooperation, and Finnish companies are looking for new opportunities in India.”

Investment protection

According to Vaskunlahti, although India’s legislative framework can be a little complicated and the judicial system overworked and under-resourced leading to delays in solving disputes for foreign investors, overall the atmosphere is “welcoming and pretty open”.

However, according to the Ambassador, Finland is worried over India’s move to terminate investment protection agreement with 82 countries. “We are not quite sure what is the purpose of this,” Vaskunlahti said. While the treaty between India and Finland is still in force, according to Vaskunlahti, India and the European Union seem to be stuck over negotiating a new investment protection treaty after a year back India had sent request for renegotiation for the Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) to over 80 countries with whom it had earlier signed Bilateral Investment Promotion and Protection Agreements (BIPA).

“As a member of EU, we cannot negotiate on our own, because it’s the EU Commission that has a negotiating mandate,” Vaskunlahti said. “What we have now on the table is called a comprehensive negotiating mandate which covers both free trade agreement and the investment protection agreement. For the moment, nothing much is happening, but efforts and work are being done in background to push it forward.”

The new model of the BIT was cleared by the Union Cabinet in December 2015 and was seen to give more stability to foreign investors and prevent disputes with multinational companies by excluding matters such as government procurement, taxation, subsidies, compulsory licences and national security.

Arbitration mechanism

At the same time, the new model BIT brings in a provision obliging foreign investors to first exhaust the option of local judicial system at least for five years before going to international arbitration mechanism in case of disputes.

Some of the cases when foreign investors challenged India in international arbitrage, invoking clauses of earlier BIPAs include Devas Multimedia, Vodafone, Deutsche Telekom, Sistema and Cairn.

Source: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/info-tech/finnish-companies-looking-for-new-opportunities-in-india/article9719905.ece