Indian economy to pick up once impact of note ban fades: IMF

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IMF in its note titled ‘Global Prospects and Policy Challenges’ said, “Further subsidy reduction and tax reforms, including a robust design and full implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), are necessary to attain medium-term fiscal consolidation plans.”

India’s economic growth is expected to pick up once the effects of cash shortages linked to the currency exchange initiative fade, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said. Prime Minister Narendra Modi on November 8 had announced scrapping of old Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes, pulling out 86 per cent of the total currency in circulation.

 

Noting that India’s fiscal deficit is expected to continue narrowing in the near-term, the IMF in its note titled ‘Global Prospects and Policy Challenges’ said, “Further subsidy reduction and tax reforms, including a robust design and full implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), are necessary to attain medium-term fiscal consolidation plans.”

 

It further observed that in some emerging economies like China and India reducing excessive corporate leverage and improving bank’s balance sheets or adopting more prudent risk-management practices, including to reduce currency and maturity balance sheet mismatches, will help reduce vulnerabilities to global financial conditions, possible capital outflows, and sharp currency movements.

 

The government last month pegged GDP growth at 7.1 per cent for 2016-17 despite the note ban. The Central Statistics Office (CSO) had put the figure for October-December at 7 per cent, compared to 7.4 per cent in the second quarter and 7.2 per cent in the first.

 

India’s growth was higher than China’s 6.8 per cent for October-December of 2016. The growth numbers were better than those projected by RBI (6.9 per cent) and international agencies like IMF (6.6 per cent) and OECD (7 per cent) in view of the cash recall. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in February last year had projected the country’s growth at 7.4 per cent for 2016-17. Buoyed by higher-than-expected growth, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has also said a 7 per cent expansion in the third quarter belies the exaggerated claims of note ban impact on the rural economy.

 

Source: http://www.financialexpress.com/economy/indian-economy-to-pick-up-once-impact-of-note-ban-fades-imf/589248/

World Bank CEO lauds demonetisation, says economy will see positive impact

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World Bank CEO Kristalina Georgieva pegs India’s GDP growth rate at 7% for 2016-17, says ongoing reforms, GST implementation augur well for the economy

The government’s decision to ban high-value banknotes as part of efforts to stamp out corruption will have a profound and positive impact on India’s economy, World Bank chief executive Kristalina Georgieva said.

Demonetisation may have caused some hardship to people living in the cash economy but in the long run the move will help foster a clean and digitized economy, Georgieva said.

“What India has done will be studied (by other countries). There hasn’t been such demonetisation in a country so big,” Georgieva told Hindustan Times in an interview late on Wednesday.

The World Bank CEO’s appreciation for the 8 November move which banned Rs500 and Rs1,000 bills, comes after the International Monetary Fund said in November that it supported India’s efforts to fight corruption through currency control measures.

Georgieva compared the move to that of the European Union, which is also phasing out high denomination bills but over a longer period of time.

“While demonetisation has, in the short term, created some impact on businesses dependent on cash, in the long term the impact will be positive… The reforms India is targeting are profound,” she said.

She also said the government’s financial inclusion programme along with the move towards digital payments and direct transfer of subsidies will help the poor.

Georgieva, who was in India for two days, travelled on a local train in Mumbai and visited the world’s biggest slum in Dharavi. She said she found that people were eager to get a better life and were willing to pay more for improved services. Georgieva also appreciated the competition among states to improve ease of doing business. “India is the bright spot in today’s global economy and it is visible in the country’s performance and more so in the aspirations of the people here,” she said.

“Our growth projection for India for this year is 7%. The signs are positive with the reform process underway and GST (goods and services tax) expected to be implemented soon.”

 

Source: http://www.livemint.com/Politics/dwHIa9twClc2ZNrHFgYBoL/World-Bank-CEO-lauds-demonetisation-says-economy-will-see-p.html

OECD backs demonetisation, projects FY17 GDP growth at 7%

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The Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has supported India’s demonetisation drive, asserting that immediate impact of the move on Indian economy will be transient.

The Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has supported India’s demonetisation drive, asserting that immediate impact of the move on Indian economy will be transient.

“Implementing the demonetisation has had transitory and short- term costs but should have long-term benefits,” OECD said on Tuesday in its report, Economic Survey of India. OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria said the impact of demonetisation on consumption pattern may just have been limited to the quarter ended December 31, 2016.

The Paris-based global policy forum projected a GDP growth rate of 7 percent in the current financial year, while estimating it to grow to 7.3 percent in FY18 and 7.7 percent in FY19.

The OECD comments come a few hours before the Central Statistics Office (CSO) releases Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth estimates for Q3FY17 and the second full year advance estimates for 2016-17. The GDP estimates released in January projected that India would grow 7.1 percent in 2016-17 from 7.9 percent in the previous year.

Amid signs of slide in consumer goods sales and muted investment activity because of the cash crunch, it is highly likely that the CSO will sharply revise downwards India’s GDP growth in its second advance estimates. Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das, who was also present at the launch of the report, said that the benefits and outcomes of demonetisation would be positive from next quarter. “The process of remonetisation is nearly complete. Any adverse impact of consumption in that quarter is not likely to spill over next year. So that is over and behind us,” Das said.

“The shift towards a less cash economy and formalisation should, however, improve the financing of the economy and availability of loans (as a result of the shift from cash to bank deposits) and should promote tax compliance,” the report said.

On November 8, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that existing 500 and 1000 rupee notes would cease to be legal tender, thereby sucking out 86 percent of the currency in circulation from the economy. The survey, however, said that the temporary cash shortage and wealth destruction, as fake currency and illegal cash will not be redeemed. T

he report further said that the implementation of the goods and services tax (GST) reform will contribute to making India more integrated market. “By reducing tax cascading, it will boost competitiveness, investment and job creation.

The GST reform — designed to be initially revenue-central — should be complemented by a reform of income and property taxes,” the OECD survey said.

The survey pointed out that investment is still held back by relatively high corporate income tax rates, slow land acquisition process, weak corporate balance sheets and high non-performing loans which weigh on banks’ lending and infrastructure bottlenecks.

Key recommendations of OECD included raising revenue, especially from property and personal income taxes, ensuring that government debt to GDP ratio returns to a declining path, as well as strengthening of public bank balance sheets by recapitalising them and promoting bank consolidation.

It also suggested simpler and flexible labour laws and a gradual reduction in corporate income tax from 30% to 25%, while broadening the tax base.

Source: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/oecd-backs-demonetisation-projects-fy17-gdp-growth-at-7_8569641.html

IMF sees growth cooling to 6% in second half of FY17

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India’s economic growth would slow to about six per cent in the second half of this financial year (October-March) due to demonetisation, against 7.2 per cent in the first half, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Wednesday.

India’s representative in IMF Subir Gokarn said the growth projections came at a time when hard data was unavailable. He described the assessment as “unduly pessimistic”. In the medium term, however, the IMF is hopeful that implementation of the Goods and Services Tax could raise India’s growth rate to more than eight per cent.

The Fund said the cost of recapitalising public sector banks would be affordable even under a negative scenario. In a report on India, the IMF said growth would gradually rebound in 2017-18.

In January, it had cut India’s growth estimate to 6.6 per cent for 2016-17 due to the note ban, against 7.6 per cent estimated earlier. Growth was estimated to be 6.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of the financial year.

Taking both the estimates into consideration, the IMF said, third quarter growth might fall below six per cent.

The Central Statistics Office will come out with the third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data and the revised advance estimates on the coming Tuesday. Its first advance estimates had shown economic growth at 7.1 per cent in 2016-17, against 7.6 per cent the previous year. The office had not taken into account the effect of demonetisation.

Commenting on IMF’s revision of growth rates, Gokarn said, “While we do not question the methodologies used to revise the estimates, the fact is that there isn’t very much hard data to base the revisions.” He said different assumptions about the impact would obviously lead to different conclusions. While virtually all forecasters have revised their projections for 2016-17 downwards, the range was relatively wide, he added.

To buttress his points, Gokarn said the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have pegged growth at seven per cent, after accounting for change in the currency policy. The authorities’ estimate was 7.1 per cent. IMF directors supported India’s efforts to tackle illicit financial flows, but noted the strains that have emerged from the currency exchange initiative. They called for action to quickly restore the availability of cash to avoid further payment disruptions, and encouraged prudent monitoring of the potential side-effects of the initiative on financial stability and growth.
On tackling India’s $130 billion in stressed loans, the IMF said “recapitalisation costs should be manageable” at between 1.5 and 2.4 per cent of the GDP forecast, according to Reuters.

Of that, the government’s share would be between 1.0 and 1.6 per cent of GDP over the four years to March 2019, assuming 40 per cent of the loans have to be provided against. “It’s very positive that both the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the government are putting a shared focus on addressing the balance-sheet problem,” IMF Resident Representative Andreas Bauer told a conference call.

The chief economic advisor, Arvind Subramanian, on Wednesday backed a call by the RBI to set up an institution similar to “bad bank”, saying urgency was needed to address troubled loans weighing on the banking sector.

In a special report on corporate and banking sector risks in India, the IMF said recapitalisation costs would be “significantly higher if there is a policy shift to more conservative provisioning requirements”.

In case of a rise in the provisioning ratio to 70 per cent, cumulative recapitalisation needs would increase to 3.3-4.2 per cent of forecast GDP in the financial year to March 2019, with a government share of 2.2-2.8 per cent, the IMF said.

The IMF said with temporary demand disruptions and increased monsoon-driven food supplies, inflation was expected at about 4.75 per cent by early 2017— in line with the Reserve Bank of India’s inflation target of 5 per cent by March 2017.

The Fund said domestic risks flow from a potential further deterioration of corporate and public bank balance sheets, as well as setbacks in the reform process, including in GST design and implementation, which could weigh on domestic demand-driven growth and undermine investor and consumer sentiment.

On the upside, IMF said larger than expected gains from GST and further structural reforms could lead to significantly stronger growth; while a sustained period of continued-low global energy prices would also be very beneficial to India.

Source: http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/imf-sees-growth-cooling-to-6-in-second-half-of-fy17-117022300100_1.html

India knocking at rare club of fast, steady growth economies says Edelweiss

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There are only 28 episodes ever when countries grew at over 6 per cent for 8 years or longer, Edelweiss Securities said in a research note, adding India is entering this rare club.

Indian economy is becoming more efficient through five broad themes — fast and steady rate of growth, market reforms, expanding digital footprint, revival in rural growth and creation of modern infrastructure, says a report.

 

Indian economy is becoming more efficient through five broad themes — fast and steady rate of growth, market reforms, expanding digital footprint, revival in rural growth and creation of modern infrastructure, says a report. “India is growing at a fast pace, largely driven by efficiency gains in doing business, tax collections, infrastructure and rural economy,” it added. There are only 28 episodes ever when countries grew at over 6 per cent for 8 years or longer, Edelweiss Securities said in a research note, adding India is entering this rare club. On landmark reforms, the report said while GST can increase highly productive formal organised employment, bankruptcy code can enhance liquidation and better utilisation of assets. Moreover, there has been a marked improvement in global competitiveness among major emerging markets and 90 per cent of FDI is now coming through the automatic route, replacing hot money, it added.

Regarding digital India, it said that apart from gains from extinguished liability, the real effect of demonetisation has been a repair of banks’ balance sheets and an increase in digital transactions.

An efficient rural India means higher rural income, which in turn would lead to large increase in discretionary spend hence stronger growth in India.

Edelweiss Securities further noted that equities are cheap relative to bonds.

“A comparison of Nifty’s earning yield vs the 10-year government bond yield shows that equities are currently very cheaply priced as compared to debt instruments and we should expect a shift in the allocation of funds from debt to equity,” it said.

The broader market is also showing bullish prospects.

“The number of stocks hitting 52-week highs are rising steadily and the total market cap of all NSE listed stocks (above 200 cr MCAP) is also at a new all-time high; suggesting strong momentum in broader market,” it said.

Source: http://www.financialexpress.com/economy/india-knocking-at-rare-club-of-fast-steady-growth-economies-says-edelweiss/552425/

Union Budget 2017: Economic Survey says reforms to power India potential growth

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India’s economy could grow at 6.5-6.75% in the current financial year and might not gather significant momentum next year but that doesn’t warrant a fiscal/monetary easing, according to Economic Survey 2016-17 tabled in Parliament on Monday. Projecting a 0.25-0.5% demonetisation-induced reduction in the FY17 gross domestic product (GDP) growth relative to the 7% annual expansion the country would have otherwise reported, the survey cautiously estimated FY18 growth within a broad low-equilibrium range of 6.75-7.5%.

A clutch of states in India have suffered from an “aid curse” — that is, a negative effect on redistributive resource transfers on fiscal effort and governance quality — the survey noted and invited a debate on universal basic income (UBI) for households in these states.

Direct UBI transfers to the households could be a more efficient way to reduce poverty, cementing the recent gains in redistributive efficiency through the JAM (Jan Dhan, Aadhaar and mobile) platform, the authors of the survey felt, but they cautioned against UBI implementation until the tax-GDP ratio showed tangible rise.

“There is a big potential to improve the weak targeting of current (anti-poverty) schemes,” chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian said, amid rumours that Wednesday’s Union Budget might launch a pilot UBI.

According to the survey, the short-term effect of the note ban on the economy will be less adverse than many others predicted: The International Monetary Fund (IMF), for instance, saw a 1 percentage point growth reduction in FY17; the Reserve Bank of India had pegged a 0.5% loss in growth. The IMF, Subramanian said, relied on an “over-optimistic baseline”.

Given that growth was 7.2% in the first half of this fiscal and the survey assumption is against the baseline scenario of around 7% FY17 growth, the forecast is that second-half growth, at worst, could be around 6%.

This is still a bit more optimistic than what many independent analysts prognosticated — Morgan Stanley Research, for instance, put H2 FY17 growth at 5.5%.

However, the survey appreciated the limitation of capturing informal activity in the national income data, suggesting the pain of note recall might have been more severe. A set of structural reforms could take the economy towards the potential real GDP growth of 8-10%.

As for FY18, exports, which are “recovering”, based on an uptick in the global economy — the IMF has projected global growth to rise to 3.4% in 2017 from 3.1% in 2016 — would be a significant growth driver, the survey said, but admitted that the outlook for private consumption was less clear (oil prices are a potential drag while low interest rates might help a smart recovery in spending on housing and consumer durables). It also said candidly that given the sticky TBS or twin balance sheet problem, private investment was unlikely to recover from the FY17 level (fixed investment, according to the central statistics office, declined 0.2% this fiscal and investment as a share of GDP is now seen at 29%, down 5 percentage points from FY12). Demand-driven remonetisation, a push to digital payments using incentives, bringing land and real estate into the goods and services tax (GST) net, lowering tax rates and stamp duties and improving the tax system would help take growth back to trend in FY18, it said. However, the threat of trade tensions among major countries prevailed, especially given the Trump administration’s proclivity to step into a protectionist groove.

Giving the fiscal outlook for the Centre, the survey warned that the increase in tax-GDP ratio of about 0.5 percentage point each in the last two years owing to the oil windfall would disappear in FY18: “Excise-related taxes will decline by about 0.1 percentage point of GDP, a swing of about 0.6 percentage points relative to FY17,” it said. According to Crisil Research, about a third of the likely excise revenue of Rs 2.3 lakh crore in FY17 could be ascribed to excise duty increases on petroleum products. There would be windfalls from cessation of the RBI’s liability with respect to demonetised banknotes not returned to banks and the new income disclosure scheme PMGKY. Revenue potential from GST could, however, take some some time to be fully exploited.

While a committee on fiscal consolidation is believed to have recommended some well-defined escape clauses to provide the fiscal support to consumption and investment in the near term, the survey noted that primary balance (obtained after netting interest payments from the fiscal deficit) needed more attention. “The vulnerability is the country’s primary deficit… Put simply, India’s government is not collecting enough revenue to cover its running costs, let alone the interest on its debt obligations.” Although the survey noted that there was nothing extraordinary about this (other emerging market economies too run primary deficits), given India’s rapid rates of growth, its primary deficit should have been much lower than others.

This is still a bit more optimistic than what many independent analysts prognosticated — Morgan Stanley Research, for instance, put H2 FY17 growth at 5.5%.

However, the survey appreciated the limitation of capturing informal activity in the national income data, suggesting the pain of note recall might have been more severe. A set of structural reforms could take the economy towards the potential real GDP growth of 8-10%.

As for FY18, exports, which are “recovering”, based on an uptick in the global economy — the IMF has projected global growth to rise to 3.4% in 2017 from 3.1% in 2016 — would be a significant growth driver, the survey said, but admitted that the outlook for private consumption was less clear (oil prices are a potential drag while low interest rates might help a smart recovery in spending on housing and consumer durables). It also said candidly that given the sticky TBS or twin balance sheet problem, private investment was unlikely to recover from the FY17 level (fixed investment, according to the central statistics office, declined 0.2% this fiscal and investment as a share of GDP is now seen at 29%, down 5 percentage points from FY12). Demand-driven remonetisation, a push to digital payments using incentives, bringing land and real estate into the goods and services tax (GST) net, lowering tax rates and stamp duties and improving the tax system would help take growth back to trend in FY18, it said. However, the threat of trade tensions among major countries prevailed, especially given the Trump administration’s proclivity to step into a protectionist groove.

Giving the fiscal outlook for the Centre, the survey warned that the increase in tax-GDP ratio of about 0.5 percentage point each in the last two years owing to the oil windfall would disappear in FY18: “Excise-related taxes will decline by about 0.1 percentage point of GDP, a swing of about 0.6 percentage points relative to FY17,” it said. According to Crisil Research, about a third of the likely excise revenue of Rs 2.3 lakh crore in FY17 could be ascribed to excise duty increases on petroleum products. There would be windfalls from cessation of the RBI’s liability with respect to demonetised banknotes not returned to banks and the new income disclosure scheme PMGKY. Revenue potential from GST could, however, take some some time to be fully exploited.

While a committee on fiscal consolidation is believed to have recommended some well-defined escape clauses to provide the fiscal support to consumption and investment in the near term, the survey noted that primary balance (obtained after netting interest payments from the fiscal deficit) needed more attention. “The vulnerability is the country’s primary deficit… Put simply, India’s government is not collecting enough revenue to cover its running costs, let alone the interest on its debt obligations.” Although the survey noted that there was nothing extraordinary about this (other emerging market economies too run primary deficits), given India’s rapid rates of growth, its primary deficit should have been much lower than others.

Source: http://www.financialexpress.com/budget/economic-survey-2017/union-budget-2017-economic-survey-says-reforms-to-power-india-potential-growth/531664/

With GST on its way, India rises to second spot on global biz optimism index

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India improved its ranking by one spot in a global index of business optimism, with policy reforms and Goods and Services tax (GST) expected to become a reality soon, says a survey.

According to the latest Grant Thornton International Business Report, India was ranked second on the optimism index during the third quarter (July-September 2016).

Indonesia took the top spot, with the Philippines coming in third.

India was ranked third during the April-June period after being on top for two consecutive quarters.

“The improvement in the optimism ranking in the recent past clearly reflects that the reform agenda of the government and its efforts on improving the climate for doing business are having an impact,” Grant Thornton India LLP Partner – India Leadership Team Harish H V said.

High business optimism was also complimented by the rise of employment expectations. India regained its top position on this parameter, from second position in the April-June period, while profitability expectations also moved up.

“…all the programs and initiatives of the government as well as its focus on building relationships with all major economic powers has made India a bright spot in the global economy,” Harish said, adding the recent push for GST augurs well and should give a further boost to business optimism.

While India continues to be amongst the top five countries citing regulations and red tape as a constraint on growth, for the first time in the year, the country’s ranking on this parameter has dropped from second to fourth.

As per the survey, 59 per cent of the respondents have quoted this as an impediment in the growth prospects compared to 64 per cent in the previous quarter.

The report is prepared on the basis of a quarterly conducted global business survey of 2,500 businesses across 36 economies.

Meanwhile, in terms of revenue expectations, India slipped to third position from top in the previous quarter.

In spite of the downturn, India is much ahead of China where only 30 per cent respondents expect an increase in revenue, whereas in India, 85 per cent respondents have voted in favour of increasing revenue.

The survey further noted that 68 per cent of respondents have voted for an upsurge in selling prices. On this parameter too, China lags India with only 10 per cent of respondents expecting an upsurge in selling prices. The global average is 19 per cent.

Globally, business optimism stands at net 33 per cent, rising 1 percentage point from the previous quarter but falling 11 percentage points over the year.

“Political events such as Brexit and the US presidential election understandably rattle the global economy and test the resilience and elasticity of businesses worldwide. In general, businesses do not like uncertainty, and that is what is happening,” Grant Thornton Global CEO Ed Nusbaum said.

Source : http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/55277143.cms