IMF sees growth cooling to 6% in second half of FY17

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India’s economic growth would slow to about six per cent in the second half of this financial year (October-March) due to demonetisation, against 7.2 per cent in the first half, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Wednesday.

India’s representative in IMF Subir Gokarn said the growth projections came at a time when hard data was unavailable. He described the assessment as “unduly pessimistic”. In the medium term, however, the IMF is hopeful that implementation of the Goods and Services Tax could raise India’s growth rate to more than eight per cent.

The Fund said the cost of recapitalising public sector banks would be affordable even under a negative scenario. In a report on India, the IMF said growth would gradually rebound in 2017-18.

In January, it had cut India’s growth estimate to 6.6 per cent for 2016-17 due to the note ban, against 7.6 per cent estimated earlier. Growth was estimated to be 6.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of the financial year.

Taking both the estimates into consideration, the IMF said, third quarter growth might fall below six per cent.

The Central Statistics Office will come out with the third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data and the revised advance estimates on the coming Tuesday. Its first advance estimates had shown economic growth at 7.1 per cent in 2016-17, against 7.6 per cent the previous year. The office had not taken into account the effect of demonetisation.

Commenting on IMF’s revision of growth rates, Gokarn said, “While we do not question the methodologies used to revise the estimates, the fact is that there isn’t very much hard data to base the revisions.” He said different assumptions about the impact would obviously lead to different conclusions. While virtually all forecasters have revised their projections for 2016-17 downwards, the range was relatively wide, he added.

To buttress his points, Gokarn said the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have pegged growth at seven per cent, after accounting for change in the currency policy. The authorities’ estimate was 7.1 per cent. IMF directors supported India’s efforts to tackle illicit financial flows, but noted the strains that have emerged from the currency exchange initiative. They called for action to quickly restore the availability of cash to avoid further payment disruptions, and encouraged prudent monitoring of the potential side-effects of the initiative on financial stability and growth.
On tackling India’s $130 billion in stressed loans, the IMF said “recapitalisation costs should be manageable” at between 1.5 and 2.4 per cent of the GDP forecast, according to Reuters.

Of that, the government’s share would be between 1.0 and 1.6 per cent of GDP over the four years to March 2019, assuming 40 per cent of the loans have to be provided against. “It’s very positive that both the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the government are putting a shared focus on addressing the balance-sheet problem,” IMF Resident Representative Andreas Bauer told a conference call.

The chief economic advisor, Arvind Subramanian, on Wednesday backed a call by the RBI to set up an institution similar to “bad bank”, saying urgency was needed to address troubled loans weighing on the banking sector.

In a special report on corporate and banking sector risks in India, the IMF said recapitalisation costs would be “significantly higher if there is a policy shift to more conservative provisioning requirements”.

In case of a rise in the provisioning ratio to 70 per cent, cumulative recapitalisation needs would increase to 3.3-4.2 per cent of forecast GDP in the financial year to March 2019, with a government share of 2.2-2.8 per cent, the IMF said.

The IMF said with temporary demand disruptions and increased monsoon-driven food supplies, inflation was expected at about 4.75 per cent by early 2017— in line with the Reserve Bank of India’s inflation target of 5 per cent by March 2017.

The Fund said domestic risks flow from a potential further deterioration of corporate and public bank balance sheets, as well as setbacks in the reform process, including in GST design and implementation, which could weigh on domestic demand-driven growth and undermine investor and consumer sentiment.

On the upside, IMF said larger than expected gains from GST and further structural reforms could lead to significantly stronger growth; while a sustained period of continued-low global energy prices would also be very beneficial to India.

Source: http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/imf-sees-growth-cooling-to-6-in-second-half-of-fy17-117022300100_1.html

Vizag, 4 other cities lead the way under smart cities mission

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Visakhapatnam along with four other cities — Pune, Bhubaneshwar, Surat and Ahmedabad — is leading the progress made under the first round of the government’s flagship scheme.

Mission Director (Smart Cities) Sameer Sharma told BusinessLine, “We have reviewed the progress of Visakhapatnam under the smart cities mission with the consultants and CEO of the special purpose vehicle (SPV) formed. Under the project, development of footpaths will go for bidding by October 31; water supply for the city by September 30, sewerage also by September 30, etc.”

Visakhapatnam had ranked eighth in the first round of the smart cities challenge.

On the overall progress made, he added that all 20 cities in the first round have already formed SPVs and most have readied Production Management Contracts ( PMCs) also. “Projects across all these cities are expected to kick-start by December,” Sharma said at the sidelines of the 3rd BRICS Urbanisation Forum here.

In January this year, 20 winning cities which were announced under the first round covered only 12 States and Union Territories. The government had then decided to conduct a ‘fast-track competition’ to offer an opportunity to the highest ranked city in each of the unrepresented 23 States and UTs. In May this year, the Ministry of Urban Development had announced 13 more winners of the smart city tag under the fast-track round.

On the progress under this round, Sharma said, “Out of the 13 selected in the fast-track round, six cities, including Panaji, Chandigarh, Port Blair, Lucknow, have formed SPVs and remaining seven are in the last stage of formation of SPV and are expected to do so by the end of this month.”

Moreover, on Monday, the Centre will announce 27 more cities which will bag the smart city tag.

 

Funding plans

Meanwhile, the government is also pursuing a loan of $1 billion from Asian Development Bank and another $500 million from the World Bank to provide funds to the city SPVs, apart from Japanese International Cooperation Agency ($500 million), BRICS Bank ($ 500 million per city), AFD (€100-200 million).

“The funds from World Bank are expected to flow in 6 months. It will be in phases,” Sharma added.

Source :http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/todays-paper/tp-news/vizag-4-other-cities-lead-the-way-under-smart-cities-mission/article9108718.ece

ADB trims developing Asia growth forecast; India on track

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ADB today marginally cut economic growth projection for Asia and Pacific region for 2016, though India is likely to meet 7.4 per cent and 7.8 per cent growth forecast for this and the following year.

Asian Development Bank said it has cut its 2016 growth projection for developing economies in Asia and the Pacific to 5.6 per cent from earlier forecast of 5.7 per cent.

“South Asia, meanwhile is expected to be the fastest growing subregion, led by India, whose economy has shrugged off global headwinds and is on track to meet ADB’s March fiscal year 2016 (year to March 2017) projected growth target of 7.4 per cent, supported by brisk consumer spending and an uptick in the rural economy”, ADB said in a supplement to its Asian Development Outlook 2016 report.

“Although the Brexit vote has affected developing Asia’s currency and stock markets, its impact on the real economy in the short term is expected to be small,” said Shang-Jin Wei, ADB’s Chief Economist.

However, in light of the tepid growth prospects in the major industrial economies, policy makers should remain vigilant and be prepared to respond to external shocks to ensure growth in the region remains robust,” Wei said.

ADB said it now forecasts 2016 growth for the developing economies at 5.6 per cent, below its previous projection of 5.7 per cent. For 2017, growth is seen unchanged at 5.7 per cent.

Growth in 2016 and 2017 is led by South Asia, and India in particular, which continues to expand strongly, while China is on track to meet earlier growth projections, it said.

In Southeast Asia, growth projections for the subregion in the 2016 and 2017 remain unchanged at 4.5 per cent and 4.8 per cent, respectively with solid performances by most economies in the first half of 2016 driven by private consumption.

The exception was Vietnam where the economy came under pressure from a worsening drought that caused a contraction in the agriculture sector, it added.

ADB said growth in Asia and the Pacific’s developing economies for 2016 and 2017 will remain solid as firm performances from South Asia, East Asia and Southeast Asia help offset softness from the US economy, and near-term market shocks from the Brexit vote.

It has projected inflation for developing Asia at 2.8 per cent for 2016 and 3 per cent or 2017- a 0.3 percentage point rise for each year from the previous forecasts.

“The rise is largely due to a recovery in oil and food prices,” it added.

The Manila headquartered ADB is owned by 67 members – 48 from the region. In 2015, ADB assistance totalled $27.2 billion, including co-financing of $10.7 billion.

Source :
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/53263953.cms

India Agri Business Fund invests Rs 100 crore in Parijat Ind

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Rabobank-promoted private equity fund ‘India Agri Business Fund II’ has invested around Rs 100 crore in agrochemical firm Parijat Industries to acquire a minority stake.

Rabo Equity Advisors, the investment advisors for PE fund ‘India Agri Business Fund II’, announced an “undisclosed investment” into Parijat Industries to acquire minority stake. Sources said that an investment of about Rs 100 crore has been made in Parijat Industries.

This is the second investment by India Agri Business Fund II, Rabo Equity advisors said in a statement. The first investment, which was also of about Rs 100 crore, was announced last week in Cremica Food Industries.

India Agri Business Fund II is a USD 200 million private equity fund targeted at expansion/growth of Indian food and agri-business companies in India across the value chain.

The fund sponsored by Rabobank along with pedigreed anchors namely CDC Group and Asian Development Bank.

Commenting on the investment, Rabo Equity Advisors CMD Rajesh Srivastava said that it expects Parijat to be a leading agrochemical player in the high potential sector. “We are especially excited at the company’s export forays and new products expected to be launched in the domestic market over the next few years,” he added.

Parijat is looking to achieve sales of Rs 1,500 crore by 2021 and also expand its domestic distribution network to 10,000 retail points in three years from 4,500 at present. “Our team at Parijat is committed to exponentially growing its domestic presence besides the international footprint. We are delighted to have Rabo Equity as our partner and hope to leverage their extensive domain knowledge and global outreach in the food and agri sector,” said Keshav Anand, Chairman & Managing Director, Parijat Industries.

Rabo Equity Advisors currently advises two funds in India, IABF-I and IABF-II. India Agri Business Fund I, a USD 120 million fund which is invested in 10 companies across sectors like biotechnology, warehousing, edible oils, dairy and basmati rice.

 

Source: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/india-agri-business-fund-invests-rs-100-croreparijat-ind_6839841.html

Government lines up over Rs 17k crore to support rooftop solar projects

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The government has lined up almost $2.5 billion (about Rs 16,800 crore) for providing low cost finance to achieve the target of installing 40 GW grid-connected solar rooftop systems.

“The ministry is in negotiations with the KfW Development Bank to secure soft loans of 1 billion euro. They have already provided $100 million funding,” The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) Secretary Upendra Tripathy told reporters here.

The World Bank has committed a loan of $620 million, with the Asian Development Bank and the New Development Bank pledging $500 million and $250 million, respectively, he added.

“This will enable participating commercial banks such as SBI, PNB and Canara Bank to extend loan at or near base rates,” Tripathy said.

The secretary further said in the current fiscal, MNRE is trying to arrange an investment of Rs 6,000 crore for rooftop solar projects.

“The government is committed to encourage rooftop solar projects and Power and MNRE Minister Piyush Goyal will inaugurate a national workshop on Roof Top Solar Power on June 7,” he said.

This workshop will have presentations and discussions on various topics including best practices, innovative projects and major policy initiatives on projects, he added.

Besides senior government officials from the centre and states, the conference will also see participation from solar power project developers, channel partners as well as international agencies such as GIZ, KfW and USAID.

The power generated from solar rooftop plants installed even today is almost at par with the commercial tariff for consumers in many states. The cost of solar power is declining, while that of electricity from fossil fuels is rising.

Today, it is possible to generate solar power from rooftop systems at about Rs 6.5 per kilo watt hour, which is cheaper than power generated from diesel gensets and also cheaper than the cost at which most discoms make power available to industries and high-end domestic consumers.

On the issue of storage of solar power generated from rooftop systems, Tripathy said the government is working on providing some kind of subsidy for such projects.

Also there are plans for installing 15 minutes of storage in two projects in Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.

 

Source: http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/govt-lines-up-over-rs-17k-crore-to-support-rooftop-solar-projects-116060301277_1.html

Brics bank may give first loans to India, China in their currencies

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The New Development Bank (NDB), referred to as Brics bank, may give the first batch of loans to India and China in their respective currencies in April, sources said, even though the default operating currency of the NDB is US dollar.

The New Development Bank (NDB), referred to as Brics bank, may give the first batch of loans to India and China in their respective currencies in April, sources said, even though the default operating currency of the NDB is US dollar.

The move is aimed at allowing the new multilateral agency headquartered in Shanghai to use a larger basket of currencies for lending and borrowing.

The NDB could raise funds by issuing rupee bonds in India or rupee-linked bonds overseas (masala bonds) for its rupee loans operations in the country.

In the past, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has issued both domestic and overseas rupee bonds to finance projects in India.

The NDB, set up earlier this year, has an authorised capital of $100 billion. To start with, the it would begin with $50-billion subscribed capital, split equally among BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Korea) countries.

It will scale up later by inducting more countries as members and raise resources from the market.

India, which needs $1-trillion investment in infrastructure in five years through 2017, could be one of the big beneficiaries of the new institution. The country is already the largest borrower of the World Bank and the ADB.

Even though NDB, sources said, is likely to give loans in local currencies to India and China, it would stick to US dollar as the default currency for raising funds from global markets as well in its lendings to countries. Exceptions will be made depending on the appetite for local currency loans in member countries, sources said.

With the process of operationalising the NDB (on the lines of the World Bank) gathering momentum, its board of directors met on November 20 to discuss and frame draft lending, borrowing and environmental policies for the bank before it commences operations in early 2016.

These norms will be ratified by the board of governors in March-April.

In the meantime, a pipeline of projects are being readied to seek the board of governors’ approval. India has already submitted three proposals including the Centre’s Green Energy Corridor and Grid Strengthening Project for evacuation power from renewable energy sources such as solar.

In this project, the NDB could be a co-financier along with the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, sources said.

Two other projects sent to the NDB relate to a power project as well as an irrigation project in Rajasthan.

More projects will be sent to the bank after state governments submit their proposals to the Centre, sources said.

Source: http://www.financialexpress.com/article/economy/brics-bank-may-give-first-loans-to-india-china-in-their-currencies/171513/

 

Want to partner India in smart cities: Huawei

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Chinese technology major Huawei wants to partner India in helping it build Information and Communications Technology (ICT) infrastructure for the development of smart cities, a senior company executive said at the Huawei Innovation Day Asia, co-hosted with National University of Singapore, here last week.

 

The Centre has already announced the list of 100 cities which it plans to make ‘smart’ by providing efficient physical, social, institutional and economic infrastructure. The government has defined a smart city in the Indian context as a city that provides a decent quality of life to its citizens, a clean and sustainable environment, and supports the application of smart solutions.

 

“We will be able to help India build ICT infrastructure including wireless systems and the computing platforms for the smart cities,” said Joe So, Huawei’s chief technology officer for Industry Solutions at the company’s Shenzhen head office.

 

“We can help build the inter-dependency of the Indian system,” So said, stressing on Huawei’s strength in building ICT infrastructure.

 

Noting the similarities between India and China, especially in view of the huge population in their major cities, So said India’s smart cities should also adopt ICT. So pointed out the use of ICT in Chinese cities has helped reduce crime rates significantly. The Indian smart cities could also use ICT for similar use, said So at the Huawei Innovation Day Asia.

Elaborating, So said India would not be able to have one plan for building 100 smart cities as the country’s major regions are different from one another. Each city must be planned based on its structure and people’s needs such as New Delhi being a government and agencies centre and Mumbai being a commercial hub.

Addressing the Innovation Day Asia, Singapore’s minister for trade and industry S Iswaran said, “The ICT innovation will have a profound impact on the nature of jobs, the viability of business models, and the structure of economies.” Citing the Asian Development Bank’s figures, Iswaran said the continent’s urban population grew by 44 million every year and the Asian nations had to concern themselves with their citizen’s growing expectations for more efficient government services, as well as ensure environmental sustainability.

So said he’ll be highlighting Huawei’s technologies for India, its second largest market outside China, at the Smart-Safe City conference in Bangalore on December 19.

The company also announced its vision for the next generation of the smartphone: The “superphone”, and said it will be developed by 2020.
Source:http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/49798484.cms