Foreign investors pump $3 billion into capital markets, forex at record high in January

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Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have invested a phenomenal $3 billion (close to Rs 18,000 crore) in India’s capital markets this month on expectations of high yields as corporate earnings are expected to pick up with the economy gathering momentum after the slowdown due to the chaotic implementation of GST.

The sharp increase in inflows comes after an outflow of over Rs 3,500 crore by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) from the capital markets in December, data compiled by depositories shows. According to market analysts money pumped in by FPIs has played a key role in fuelling the bull run in the stock markets that saw both the Sensex and Nifty on a record breaking spree in recent weeks.

FPIs infused a net amount to the tune of Rs 11,759 crore in stocks and Rs 6,127 crore in debt during January 1-25 — translating into net inflows of Rs 17,866 crore. For the entire 2017, FPIs invested a collective amount of Rs 2 lakh crore in the country’s equity and debt markets.

The inflow in the current month can be attributed to anticipation of earnings recovery and attractive yields which is expected to further strengthen inflow from foreign investors in the current financial year, said Dinesh Rohira, CEO of 5nance, an online platform providing financial planning services.

However, Quantum MF Fund Manager-Fixed Income Pankaj Pathak believes that FPIs may not be able to repeat this showing in 2018 as withdrawal of liquidity and rate hikes in developed economies pick up. This would provide them with alternative avenues of investment.

The FPI investments have also helped to bolster the country’s foreign exchange reserves which touched an all-time high of USD 414.784 billion in the week to January 19, Reserve Bank data showed. The RBI data showed that the forex reserves rose by USD 959.1 million to touch a record high during the reporting week. In the previous week, the reserves had touched USD 413.825 billion after it rose by USD 2.7 billion.

The reserves had crossed the USD 400-billion mark for the first time in the week to September 8, 2017 but have since been fluctuating. But for the past four weeks the figure has shown a continuous rise. Higher foreign exchange reserves lead to a stronger rupee which in turn reduces the cost of imports as fewer rupees have to be paid to buy the same amount of dollars to pay for items such as crude oil.

A higher foreign exchange kitty also provides a comfortable cushion to finance imports especially at a time when crude prices are shooting up in the international market and the country’s trade deficit has been growing. However, while FPI inflows add to the forex reserves they are considered “hot money” as they can leave Indian shores at short notice and this could send the rupee into a tailspin.

A senior finance ministry official said that foreign direct investment (FDI) is a more stable source of funding for the economy and since it also creates jobs and incomes the government is keen to see an increase in such investments. The Prime Minister’s trip to Davos was aimed at achieving this goal, he pointed out. He said that the government has been working on the ease of doing business which has seen a sharp increase in FDI inflows and this policy will continue in the forthcoming budget. At the same time the government is keen FPI inflows are not disrupted due to tax levies on stocks that create uncertainties, he added.

 

Source: Business Today

World Bank says India has huge potential, projects 7.3% growth in 2018

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World Bank says India has huge potential, projects 7.3% growth

India’s growth rate in 2018 is projected to hit 7.3 per cent and 7.5 per cent in the next two years, according to the World Bank, which said the country has “enormous growth potential” compared to other emerging economies with the implementation of comprehensive reforms.

India is estimated to have grown at 6.7 per cent in 2017 despite initial setbacks from demonetisation and the Goods and Services Tax (GST), according to the 2018 Global Economics Prospect released by the World Bank here yesterday.

“In all likelihood India is going to register higher growth rate than other major emerging market economies in the next decade. So, I wouldn’t focus on the short-term numbers. I would look at the big picture for India and big picture is telling us that it has enormous potential,” Ayhan Kose, Director, Development Prospects Group at the World Bank, told PTI in an interview.

He said in comparison with China, which is slowing, the World Bank is expecting India to gradually accelerate.

“The growth numbers of the past three years were very healthy,” Kose, author of the report, said.

India’s economy is likely to grow 7.3 per cent in 2018 and then accelerate to 7.5 per cent in the next two years, the bank said.

China grew at 6.8 per cent in 2017, 0.1 per cent more than that of India, while in 2018, its growth rate is projected at 6.4 per cent. And in the next two years, the country’s growth rate will drop marginally to 6.3 and 6.2 per cent, respectively.

To materialise its potential, India, Kose said, needs to take steps to boost investment prospects.

There are measures underway to do in terms of non- performing loans and productivity, he said.

“On the productivity side, India has enormous potential with respect to secondary education completion rate. All in all, improved labour market reforms, education and health reforms as well as relaxing investment bottleneck will help improve India’s prospects,” Kose said.

India has a favourable demographic profile which is rarely seen in other economies, he said.

“In that context, improving female labour force participation rate is going to be important. Female labour force participation still remains low relative to other emerging market economies,” he said.

Reducing youth unemployment is critical, and pushing for private investment, where problems are already well-known like bank assets quality issues…If these are done, India can reach its potential easily and exceed, Kose asserted.

“In fact, we expect India to do better than its potential in 2018 and move forward,” he said.

India’s growth potential, he said would be around 7 per cent for the next 10 years.

The Indian government is “very serious” with the GST being a major turning point and banking recapitalisation programme is really important, Kose said.

“The Indian government has already recognised some of these problems and undertaking measures and willing to see the outcomes of these measures,” he said.

“India is a very large economy. It has a huge potential. At the same time, it has its own challenges. This government is very much aware of these challenges and is showing just doing its best in terms of dealing with them,” the World Bank official said.

The latest World Bank growth estimate for 2017 is 0.5 per cent, less than the previous projection, and 0.2 per cent less in the next two years.

“It is slightly lower than its previous forecast, primarily because India is undertaking major reforms,” Kose said.

These reforms, of course, will bring certain policy uncertainty, he said, “but the big issue about India, when you look at India’s growth potential and our numbers down the road 2019 and 2020, is that it is going to be the fastest growing large emerging market.”

“India has an ambitious government undertaking comprehensive reforms. The GST is a major reform to have harmonised taxes, is one nation one market one tax concept. Then, of course, the late 2016 demonetisation reform was there. The government is well aware of these short-term implications,” Kose said.

He said there might have been some temporary disruptions but “all in all” the Indian economy has done well.

“The potential growth rate of the Indian economy is very healthy to 7 per cent. I think the growth is going to be at a high rate going forward,” the World Bank official said.

In a South Asia regional press release, the World Bank said India is estimated to grow 6.7 percent in fiscal year 2017-18, slightly down from the 7.1 percent of the previous fiscal year.

This is due in part to the effects of the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax, but also to protracted balance sheet weaknesses, including corporate debt burdens and non- performing loans in the banking sector, weighing down private investment, it said.

Read more at: Economic Times

RBI gets nod to embark on India’s biggest banking clean-up

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The RBI will embark on its biggest banking clean-up exercise after President Pranab Mukherjee promulgated an ordinance authorising it to issue directions to banks to initiate insolvency resolution process in the case of loan default.

The tweak in the rules will help the Modi government tackle toxic loans that have crossed the Rs 6 lakh crore mark.

So, what does this mean?
1) The ordinance promulgated by the government on bad loans has now empowered the RBI to issue directions to banks for resolution of stressed assets. This basically implies the central bank can issue directions to any banking company or banking firms to initiate insolvency resolution process with respect to a default under the provisions of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016.

2) It has also empowered RBI to issue directions to banks for resolution of stressed assets.

3) The law will also empower RBI to set up sector related oversight panels that will shield bankers from later action by probe agencies looking into loan recasts.

4) RBI will be able to give specific solutions with regard to hair cut for specific cases and also, if required, look at providing relaxation in terms of current guidelines.

What is RBI’s target?
The central bank wants to resolve 60 largest delinquent-loan cases in nine months, a person familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.
Why is it being done now?

Ridding bank balance sheets of stressed assets is key to reviving credit growth and furthering Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s goal of creating more jobs in the $2 trillion economy.Various schemes proposed by RBI to resolve the problem have been unsuccessful, with lenders reluctant to write down assets sufficiently and company owners unwilling to negotiate repayment plans.

Stressed assets — bad loans, restructured debt and advances to companies that can’t meet servicing requirements — have risen to about 17 percent of total loans, the highest level among major economies, data compiled by the government shows.

Source : http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/58530686.cms

Bandhan Bank reports FY17 profit at Rs1,111.95 crore

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Bandhan Bank’s net interest income stood at Rs 2,403.50 crore in the financial year 2017

Bandhan Bank on Thursday reported a net profit of Rs1,111.95 crore for the financial year that ended on 31 March. A comparable year-ago figure wasn’t available because the lender started operations only in August 2015.

Net interest income, or the core income a bank earns by giving loans, was Rs2,403.50 crore. Gross advances were Rs23,543.29 crore and deposits stood at Rs23,229 crore.

Current and savings accounts at the end of the March quarter made up 29.43% of deposits. Bandhan Bank’s capital adequacy ratio, an indicator of financial strength expressed as a ratio of capital to risk-weighted assets, was 26.36%. The bank has 840 branches and 10.5 million customers.

Bandhan Bank, which converted from a microfinance institution to a full-fledged lender, kept its focus on borrowers who make up more than 90% of its loan book. Going forward, the bank intends to diversify into affordable housing and loans to micro enterprises.

According to Chandra Shekhar Ghosh, founding managing director and chief executive officer of Bandhan Bank, deposit and credit growth for the bank will continue to grow at 30%.

In the financial year 2016-17, the bank sold inter-bank participatory certificates worth Rs6,704.21 crore, which helped the bank boost its net interest margin.

The net interest margin, the difference between the rate a bank charges for loans and pays for deposits, for the year was close to 10%.

Under the inter-bank participatory certificates arrangement, banks can sell a part of their portfolio to other banks that are short of their targets for lending to the priority sector that includes agriculture and small businesses.

Source: http://www.livemint.com/Companies/SQyBR1lyNbg2sKNrL42ELM/Bandhan-Bank-reports-FY17-profit-at-Rs111195-crore.html

Public investors make big bucks on D-Street even after PE exits

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Private equity investors make big money in IPO exits. This is well known. But what is less known is that retail and other investors have also been making decent money after the exits. The largest IPO exits in the last three years made 1-14 times returns for private equity firms. But after listing, retail, HNIs and institutional investors have gained 9-156% in these firms, thanks to a strong stock market, data from Venture Intelligence show.

If the market rises further, the gains will only increase and private equity-like, super sized returns may still be possible. Investment bankers attribute this to the rising interest in equity market as well as strong fundamentals. “Stocks being valued attractively and appetite for IPOs have helped these companies,“ said Dharmesh Mehta, MD, Axis Capital. Financial stocks have obviously beaten the rest with RBL Bank surging 156% since listing in August 2016 followed by Ujjivan Financial Services with a gain of 87%.

Other gainers include Dr Lal PathLabs which has jumped 76% and Dilip Buildcon which has moved up 71%. In FY17, PE firms sold their complete stakes in 14 IPOs, as compared to 16 in FY16 and seven in FY15. According to Ajay Saraf, executive director, ICICI Securities, a PE exit augurs well for investors as the company could be expected to have better corporate governance and better fundamentals.

PE firms usually enter into sectors that have potential to do well and this gives comfort to investors while buying these stocks, said Saraf. “The PE exit trend is likely to gain further momentum going ahead,“ added Saraf.

Source:  http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/58157676.cms

India Inc’s March M&A deal tally jumps 4-fold to $28 billion

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India Inc’s M&A deal tally in March rose four-fold to $27.82 billion, led by the Vodafone-Idea merger, taking the overall figure to $31.54 billion in the first quarter of 2017, says a report.

Overall deal activity in the January-March quarter witnessed an unprecedented three-fold year-on-year rise in value terms, driven solely by the Vodafone-Idea mega merger, which accounted for 80 per cent of the total values.

“The Indian deal activity was dominated by big-ticket mergers and acquisitions (M&As) this quarter. The quarter witnessed one of the largest deals in the country with Vodafone and Idea’s merger, which is estimated at around $27 billion,” Grant Thornton India LLP Partner Prashant Mehra said.

The January-March quarter recorded $33.7 billion across 300 deals marking a sharp increase in value as compared to $10.9 billion in the same period last year while volumes declined by 27 per cent.Without the Vodafone-Idea mega merger, estimated to be a $27 billion transaction, the deal activity would have recorded 39 per cent decline in values, assurance, tax and advisory firm Grant Thornton said.

M&A market activity has so far been driven solely by the big-ticket deals, while on the other hand number of transactions continued to slip for the third straight quarter.

“Primary driver for M&A growth was consolidation in the domestic market with deal values growing by 10 times on the back of healthy capital markets and easing credit conditions. This enabled companies strike big ticket deals either to slash debt or consolidate market share,” Mehra said.

Meanwhile, the cross-border deal activity is yet to pick up pace in 2017 as compared to previous quarters due to looming uncertainties in the global economy.

Going forward M&A activity this year is expected to stay positive owing to the sustained interest in Indian economy.

Mehra believes consolidation and expansion is set to be the major theme that will drive the deal activity, especially in healthcare, telecom, e-commerce and infrastructure sectors.”In financial services sector, the possibility of new business models emerging post demonetisation, continued fund raising by NBFCs and a consolidation push by micro finance firms will play a big role,” he added.

Source:   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/58160464.cms

NBFCs will show up better asset quality: Moody’s

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Non-banking finance companies could well outpace commercial banks, struggling to grow amid muted loan expansion and bad loan burden, said global rating company Moody’s.

But, NBFCs too are exposed to certain risks emanating from their fast-faced growth in loan against properties, which they are in a position to mitigate with larger share in mortgaged loans.

Non-bank financial companies (NBFCs) in India (Baa3 positive) will demonstrate broadly stable asset quality, but  delinquencies will likely rise over the next 1-2 quarters, as demonetisation adversely affects collections across asset classes, said Moody’s Investors Service in a note.

“While the 90+days delinquency rate in the commercial vehicle (CV) loan segment largely stabilized in the first half of the fiscal year ending 31 March 2017, such delinquencies should build up in the near term due to the adverse impact of demonetisation and tighter recognition norms for non-performing  assets (NPAs),” said Alka Anbarasu, a Moody’s Vice President and Senior Analyst.

Moody’s also notes that the growth in loans against property (LAP) has outpaced overall retail credit growth in recent years, but relatively loose underwriting practices–combined with intensifying competition – will translate into higher asset quality risk for this segment.

Furthermore, over the past 3 years, NBFCs have gained some market share in the origination of retail lending, on the back of the faster growth exhibited by such entities when compared to the banks.

This is particularly the case when compared to public sector banks, which face significant challenges on their asset quality and overall solvency profiles.

“Nevertheless, we expect that competitive pressures from the banking sector will remain intense as banks are increasing targeting of the retail segment to offset weakness in their corporate lending. In addition, retail lending, particularly housing loans, is more capital efficient for the banks,” said Anbarasu.

And, while the NBFCs’ capitalization levels are adequate, with average Tier 1 ratios in excess of 14%, capital generation will lag credit growth. Access to external capital will therefore be key in sustaining the NBFCs’ growth momentum.

On funding, Moody’s expects that the NBFCs’ funding profiles will broadly remain stable, and funding costs should moderate gradually, given the reduction in systemic rates.

In addition, the NBFCs’ profitability and capital, as well as funding and liquidity levels, will stay broadly stable.

The NBFCs are growing at a fast pace, and have gained market share in the origination of retail credit. And, their share of LAP pose a potential source of risk, with such loans growing at a rapid compound annual growth rate of about 25% over the last four years compared to 17% for overall retail credit.

Moody’s says that the NBFCs’ exposure to potential risks from LAP is broadly offset by their share of stable mortgage loans, because favorable demographics and economics, tax incentives for home loans and an increasingly affordable housing segment support asset quality.

Moody’s expects that the loss given default for both home loans and LAP will be limited, in light of the underlying collateral.

Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/57749011.cms