IMF in its note titled ‘Global Prospects and Policy Challenges’ said, “Further subsidy reduction and tax reforms, including a robust design and full implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), are necessary to attain medium-term fiscal consolidation plans.”
India’s economic growth is expected to pick up once the effects of cash shortages linked to the currency exchange initiative fade, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said. Prime Minister Narendra Modi on November 8 had announced scrapping of old Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes, pulling out 86 per cent of the total currency in circulation.
Noting that India’s fiscal deficit is expected to continue narrowing in the near-term, the IMF in its note titled ‘Global Prospects and Policy Challenges’ said, “Further subsidy reduction and tax reforms, including a robust design and full implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), are necessary to attain medium-term fiscal consolidation plans.”
It further observed that in some emerging economies like China and India reducing excessive corporate leverage and improving bank’s balance sheets or adopting more prudent risk-management practices, including to reduce currency and maturity balance sheet mismatches, will help reduce vulnerabilities to global financial conditions, possible capital outflows, and sharp currency movements.
The government last month pegged GDP growth at 7.1 per cent for 2016-17 despite the note ban. The Central Statistics Office (CSO) had put the figure for October-December at 7 per cent, compared to 7.4 per cent in the second quarter and 7.2 per cent in the first.
India’s growth was higher than China’s 6.8 per cent for October-December of 2016. The growth numbers were better than those projected by RBI (6.9 per cent) and international agencies like IMF (6.6 per cent) and OECD (7 per cent) in view of the cash recall. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in February last year had projected the country’s growth at 7.4 per cent for 2016-17. Buoyed by higher-than-expected growth, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has also said a 7 per cent expansion in the third quarter belies the exaggerated claims of note ban impact on the rural economy.
Official data released on Tuesday showed that demonetisation hasn’t pushed the economy into a retreat as most feared, with its short-term adverse impact. (Source: Reuters)
Official data released on Tuesday showed that demonetisation hasn’t pushed the economy into a retreat as most feared, with its short-term adverse impact to a large extent restricted to construction and financial services. Real GDP growth in the December quarter, in the midst of which the note ban came into effect, came in at a respectable 7% (though lower than 7.4% in the previous quarter) and the gross value added (GVA) was 6.6%, with the difference explained by robust indirect taxes and reining in of subsidies.
Upward revision of GVA estimates for 2015-16 led to downward corrections in GVA for Q1 and Q2 of the current fiscal but despite this, there were marginal upward revisions in the rates of GDP expansion in these quarters, thanks to a surge in indirect taxes.
Solid performance by the “agriculture and allied sectors”, pump-priming by the government on the consumption side, better-than-expected performance by mining and manufacturing sectors and a seasonal — though larger-than-usual — pick-up in private consumption masked whatever negative effect the note swap exercise had on the economy, going by the Central Statistics Office’s data.
However, as the GDP was slowing even before demonetisation and the note swap has indeed had an incremental adverse effect on it, both GDP and GVA growth for 2016-17 have been projected to be much lower than in the previous year. In the second advance estimate, the CSO has kept the GDP growth estimate for the current financial year at 7.1%, the same as in the first advance estimate released in early January, and GVA growth at 6.7%. But given that 2015-16 GDP growth, which was seen at 7.6% at the time of the first advance estimate, was subsequently revised to 7.9%, the CSO’s latest take on 2016-17 growth is virtually more sanguine than its previous estimate.
While the CSO’s GDP estimate for 2016-17 is evidently higher than that of most others, many analysts said the growth assumed by it for the second half (6.8%) was optimistic. “Given the fact that the fall from H1 to Q3 is not much, I don’t think that we should then necessarily assume that the rebound in Q4 is going to be very sharp,” said Aditi Nayar, economist at Icra. Stating that the GDP number is better than expected, Saugata Bhattacharya, chief economist at Axis Bank, said, “Since growth slowdown (due to demonetisation) has been shallower than expected, and in line with the RBI’s projections, the probability of rate cuts going ahead has come down.”
The minutes of the monetary policy committee’s meeting released last week indicated that it changed its stance from “accommodative” to “neutral” because the growth drag from demonetisation is expected to fade soon. India Ratings reiterated its view that “much of the impact of demonetisation will be visible in Q4FY17 leading to an overall GDP growth of 6.8% in 2016-17”.
Economic affairs secretary Shaktikanta Das said: “This year’s GDP (growth) is around 7%, based on available numbers. Nothing can be deciphered on anecdotal evidence. Demonetisation only impacted consumption in some cities, since most purchases happened on credit or debit cards. The so-called negative impact, if relevant, was only temporary.”
The 7% GDP growth forecast for the third quarter helped India maintain the coveted tag of the world’s fastest-growing major economy despite demonetisation, better than China’s 6.8% in the December quarter.
While analysts pointed out the lack of congruity between the CSO’s estimate and other high-frequency data and corporate results, chief statistician TCA Anant said all available data have been made use of in the second advance estimate, including corporate performance up to the December quarter, sales of commercial vehicles, railway freight, etc, for the first “9/10 months of the financial year”.
According to the CSO, with production growth of foodgrains during 2016-17 kharif and rabi seasons being 9.9% and 6.3%, respectively, the farm sector grew a robust 6% in Q3 from 3.8% in the previous quarter and compared with a 2.2% contraction in the year-ago quarter. Despite the anecdotes of industrial clusters hit by the note ban during the period, manufacturing grew a healthy 8.3% in Q3 on a robust base of 12.8% in the year-ago quarter and compared with 6.9% in Q2 this fiscal. Mining also posted a smart recovery from a fall of 1.3% in Q2 to a robust expansion of 7.5% in Q3. The bad performers on the output side was “financial services, etc”, which posted a modest 3.1% growth in Q3 compared with 7.6% in the previous month, and construction which grew just 2.7% in the December quarter.
Government final consumption expenditure (GFCE) posted a 19.9% growth in Q3 against 15.2% in the previous quarter, the CSO said. Given that 17% growth in GFCE is estimated for the whole of 2016-17, it needs to grow at 17.4% in Q4. Considering that the Centre, as is seen from the April-January fiscal data separately released by the Controller General of Accounts, has slowed down spending in the later months of the year, the spending boost must come from PSUs.
Although both Dussehra and Diwali fell in the December quarter, the 10.1% growth reported by CSO in the private consumption expenditure looked puzzling to most analysts (but some said use of old notes for consumption might have contributed to the rise). So was the 3.5% growth in gross fixed capital formation, which was declining for the previous three quarters.
Given that nominal GDP growth has been projected at 11.5% for 2016-17, compared with 10% in the last fiscal, it may offer more leeway to the government to improve spending in the next fiscal and yet contain fiscal deficit, which is expressed as a ratio of the nominal GDP, at the targeted 3.2%.
Discrepancies — the difference between the supply and demand side of GDP — turned negative after a gap of four quarters (-Rs 6,767 crore) in the December quarter, compared with Rs 45,378 crore in the second quarter and Rs 30,645 crore in the first quarter. In the last quarter of 2015-16, discrepancies touched a massive Rs 1,43,210 crore, causing a flutter then and raising doubts about the credibility of the country’s data collection mechanism. When private final consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, government final consumption expenditure, change in stocks, valuables, and net exports exceed the overall GDP (based on the supply side data), discrepancies turn negative.
Analysts expect the exports sector to contribute more to GDP growth in the coming quarters, despite the demonetisation blues, thanks primarily to a favourable base. In real terms, the export growth for 2016-17 has been projected at 2.3%, compared with -5.4% in the last fiscal. Despite demonetisation, merchandise exports rose 2.3% in November, 5.7% in December and 4.3% in January.
Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe are scheduled to meet for talks later this week.
Japan attained its second-biggest current account surplus on record in 2016, Ministry of Finance data showed on Wednesday, just days before the US and Japanese leaders meet for talks with trade surpluses and currency valuations expected to be high on the agenda.
The 20.6 trillion yen ($183.63 billion) surplus reflected the trade balance swinging into surplus on cheaper oil, rising foreign tourists arrivals creating a record travel surplus, and hefty foreign income from overseas investments.
Trade surpluses and currency valuations are in focus as US President Donald Trump pursues an “America First” campaign in which he has accused big exporters such China, Germany and Japan of deliberately weakening their currencies to gain a competitive advantage.
For the whole of 2016, Japan posted a trade surplus of 6.8 trillion yen ($59.95 billion) with the United States, down 4.6 percent from 2015, with U.S.-bound car shipments rising for a second straight year, the Ministry of Finance said.
Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe are scheduled to meet for talks later this week. Trump said he and Abe would play a round of golf, with Abe as his partner in the game, rather than a competitor.
Wednesday’s data showed the vast bulk of Japan’s current account surplus was generated by Japanese direct and portfolio investment abroad, accounting for 18.1 trillion yen of the 20.6 trillion current account surplus for 2016.
The trade surplus was 5.6 trillion yen in 2016, from the 630 billion yen deficit seen in 2015, earned in part as declining oil prices curbed import costs.
The travel balance logged a record 1.3 trillion yen surplus last year as a record number of foreign tourist visits took Japan’s services deficit to the smallest on record.
Japan’s current account surplus was 1.11 trillion yen in December, a seventh straight month of annual increases, the ministry data showed.
That compared with economists’ median forecast for a surplus of 1.29 trillion yen seen in a Reuters poll.
The downward revision, if it translates into reality, will let China temporarily reclaim the fastest growing major economy tag from India
The International Monetary Fund on Monday slashed India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast by 100 basis points (bps) to 6.6% in FY17 and by 40 bps to 7.2% in FY18, citing a consumption slump after the demonetisation of high-value notes.
The downward revision, if it translates into reality, will let China reclaim, albeit temporarily, the fastest growing major economy tag from India. China’s economy is now expected to grow by 6.7% in 2016, 10 bps higher than the fund’s October 2016 forecast. The communist country is expected to clock 6.5% in 2017, 30 bps higher than estimated earlier, again ceding the fastest growing economy status to India.
“In India, the growth forecast for the current and next fiscal year were trimmed by 1 percentage point and 0.4 percentage point, respectively, primarily due to the temporary negative consumption shock induced by cash shortages and payment disruptions associated with the recent currency note withdrawal and exchange initiative,” the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook Update.
The revision comes barely four months after it revised upward by 20 bps India’s FY17 GDP growth to 7.6% in October 2016. The IMF’s cut in growth outlook for India is sharper than the recent World Bank’s 60 bps reduction in its India GDP growth outlook to 7% for FY17. In its first advance estimate, India’s Central Statistical Office has projected that the economy will slow to 7.1% in the current financial year from 7.6% in 2015-16. Given the post-demonetisation hit to consumption and investment, many analysts said these might prove to be overestimates.
Global growth for 2016 is now estimated at 3.1%, in line with the IMF’s October 2016 forecast. Economic activity in both advanced economies as well as emerging market and developing economies is forecast to accelerate in 2017-18, with global growth projected to be 3.4% and 3.6%, respectively, again unchanged from the October forecasts.
Advanced economies are now projected to grow by 1.9% in 2017 and 2% percent in 2018, 0.1 and 0.2 percentage point more than in the October forecast, respectively. As noted, this forecast is particularly uncertain in the light of potential changes in the policy stance of the United States under the incoming Donald Trump administration.
Presently, Sunway TaihuLight supercomputer, remains the world’s most powerful computer.
Japan plans to build the world’s fastest-known supercomputer in a bid to arm the country’s manufacturers with a platform for research that could help them develop and improve driverless cars, robotics and medical diagnostics.
The ministry of economy, trade and industry will spend 19.5 billion yen ($173 million) on the previously unreported project, a budget breakdown shows, as part of a government policy to get back Japan’s mojo in the world of technology. The country has lost its edge in many electronic fields amid intensifying competition from South Korea and China, home to the world’s current best-performing machine.
In a move that is expected to vault Japan to the top of the supercomputing heap, its engineers will be tasked with building a machine that can make 130 quadrillion calculations per second—or 130 petaflops in scientific parlance—as early as next year, sources involved in the project told Reuters.
At that speed, Japan’s computer would be ahead of China’s Sunway Taihulight that is capable of 93 petaflops. “As far as we know, there is nothing out there that is as fast,” said Satoshi Sekiguchi, a director general at Japan’s National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, where the computer will be built.
The push to return to the vanguard comes at a time of growing nostalgia for the heyday of Japan’s technological prowess, which has dwindled since China overtook it as the world’s second-biggest economy.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has called for companies, bureaucrats and the political class to work more closely together so Japan can win in robotics, batteries, renewable energy and other new and growing markets.
Deep learning
In the area of supercomputing, Japan’s aim is to use ultra-fast calculations to accelerate advances in artificial intelligence (AI), such as “deep learning” technology that works off algorithms which mimic the human brain’s neural pathways, to help computers perform new tasks and analyze scores of data.
Recent achievements in this area have come from Google’s DeepMind AI program, AlphaGo, which in March beat South Korean professional Lee Seedol in the ancient board game of Go.
Applications include helping companies improve driverless vehicles by allowing them to analyze huge troves of visual traffic data, or it could help factories improve automation. China uses the Sunway Taihulight for weather forecasting, pharmaceutical research, industrial design, among other things.
Japan’s new supercomputer could help tap medical records to develop new services and applications, Sekiguchi said. The supercomputer will be made available for a fee to Japan’s corporations, who now outsource data crunching to foreign firms such as Google and Microsoft, Sekiguchi and others involved in the project said.
The new computer has been dubbed ABCI, an acronym for AI Bridging Cloud Infrastructure. Bidding for the project has begun and will close on 8 December. Fujitsu Ltd, the builder of the fastest Japanese supercomputer to date—the Oakforest-PACS, capable of 13.6 petaflops, declined to say if it would bid for the project. The company has, however, said it is keen to be involved in supercomputer development.
The Philippine economy grew at its fastest pace in three years last quarter, underscoring the nation’s resilience to global risks as investment surged and consumers spent more.
Gross domestic product increased 7.1% from a year earlier, the Philippine Statistics Authority said in Manila on Thursday. The median estimate of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was 6.7%.
Compared with the previous quarter, GDP rose 1.2%, in line with economists’ estimates
Undeterred by risks such as Donald Trump’s protectionist ambitions and President Rodrigo Duterte’s rants against the US, the Philippine economy is set to expand more than 6% until 2018 to rank among the fastest-growing in the world, accordng to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Last quarter’s growth exceeded China’s 6.7% and Vietnam’s 6.4% in the same period. India, which posted growth of 7.1% in the second quarter, is yet to publish GDP data for the three months through September.
Gifted with a young population and backed by $50 billion of revenue from remittances and outsourcing, the Philippines is getting an additional boost from Mr Duterte’s $160-billion infrastructure plan aimed at creating jobs. Projects include at least $1 billion of contracts to build an airport and a railway to transform a former US military base into a commercial hub.
Philippine stocks rose a second day, climbing as much as 2.2%. They were up 1.1% as of 1101am in Manila.
The peso was little changed at 49.32 per dollar.
“Philippines will remain an outperformer in the region,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Singapore. “It is domestically driven, with consumption holding up quite well and the fiscal spending being planned. The global risks we’re seeing including to trade won’t fundamentally alter its prospects.
“In the short term at least, we expect the economy will continue growing at a decent pace,” Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics Ltd in London, said in a note. “The foundations are in place for growth to remain strong, but recent political events, both in the US and domestically, have made the outlook much less certain.”
“Putting money on infrastructure-related stocks is the smart bet and it’s exactly what I am doing,” said John Padilla, who helps manage about $9.1 billion at Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co, the Philippines third-largest money manager. “This growth poses now more challenge for President Duterte to keep the pace. It supports the view that Philippines needs infrastructure to sustain this growth.”
Household spending, which makes up about 70% of GDP, rose 7.3% from a year earlier. Government spending gained 3.1% and investment surged 20%.
India and the UK are expected to sign business deals exceeding GBP 1 billion (Rs 83,00 crore) during the three-day visit of British Prime Minister Theresa May, who is here on her first bilateral visit outside Europe since assuming office in July.
Describing her talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi as good and productive, May said as leaders, they both were working to improve the livelihoods of their citizens creating jobs, developing skills, investing in infrastructure and supporting technologies of the future.Talking about Modi’s vision of smart cities, May said they have agreed on a new partnership that will bring together government, investors and experts to work together on urban development, unlocking opportunities worth GBP 2 billion for British businesses over the next five years.
This will focus on the dynamic state of Madhya Pradesh with plans for more smart cities than anywhere else and the historic city of Varanasi.
Four rupee-denominated bonds worth a total of 600 million pounds ($748 million) are expected to be listed in London in the next three months, Theresa May said.
The latest four bonds will provide financing to expand India’s highway and rail networks and meet its plans to boost energy efficiency and renewable energy, the government said.
They will be issued by Indian government-backed corporates Indian Railway Finance Corporation, Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency, Energy Efficiency Services Limited, and National Highways Authority of India by the end of January 2017. May said since July, more than 900 million pounds rupee-denominated bonds have been issued in London, equivalent of more than 70 percent of the global offshore market.
“This government will continue to work closely with both India and our financial services sector to ensure our growing rupee bond market continues to help finance India’s ambitious infrastructure investment plans,” May said in a statement. These rupee-denominated or masala bonds as they are called, unveiled in 2015, are an opportunity for Indian firms to raise money, while giving international investors access to higher yields in a zero-yield world.
They are also a way to borrow overseas, they are also an attempt to make the tightly-controlled rupee more widely available in global markets, similar to the way in which China has moved to sell more yuan debt to overseas investors. Alongside this, the UK has agreed to invest GBP 120 million in a joint fund that will leverage private sector investment from the City of London to finance Indian infrastructure.
