Seeking to enhance its ties with resource-rich Tanzania, India on Sunday extended its full support to the country to meet its development needs and signed five agreements, including one for providing a Line of Credit of $92 million in the water resources sector.
Describing India as a trusted partner in meeting Tanzania’s development priorities, Mr. Modi said he along with President John Pombe Joseph Magufuli “agreed to deepen overall defence and security partnership, especially in the maritime domain.”
“Our in-depth discussions on regional and global issues reflected our considerable convergence on issues of common interest and concern,” he said at a joint press interaction after his bilateral meeting with President Magufuli.
Twin threats
The two leaders agreed to work closely, bilaterally, regionally and globally to combat the twin threats of terrorism and climate change.
In a joint statement, the two leaders expressed their strong condemnation of terrorism in all its forms and manifestations and stated that there could be no justification for terrorism whatsoever. They expressed satisfaction on the holding of bilateral counter-terrorism consultations in early 2016.
“India’s cooperation with Tanzania will always be as per your needs and priorities,” Mr. Modi said.
The two sides signed an agreement under which India would provide a Line of Credit of $ 92 million for rehabilitation and improvement of Zanzibar’s water supply system.
Other agreements signed included an MoU on water resource management and development, an MoU for establishment of vocational training centre at Zanzibar, an MoU on visa waiver for diplomatic/official passport holders and an agreement between the National Small Industries Corporation of India and the Small Industries Development Organisation, Tanzania.
The Prime Minister said the two countries were also working on a number of other water projects for 17 cities in Tanzania.
Britain’s vote to exit the European Union (EU) has thrown a lifeline to emerging-market companies facing an $800 billion wall of maturing debt.
By hindering the Federal Reserve’s plan to raise interest rates, the referendum result has led to speculation borrowing costs will remain lower for longer as policy makers attempt to prevent Europe’s turmoil turning into a recession. This means developing-nation companies that borrowed when it was cheaper to do so won’t have to pay more to service those bonds, at least for now.
The prospect of fewer defaults shows how the so-called Brexit vote is proving a blessing for developing-nation companies that need to pay back about $200 billion per year from 2017 to 2020. Economists from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the Bank for International Settlements have been warning Fed monetary tightening may set off an increase in corporate failures in emerging markets. Defaults have been climbing since 2013 and reached a seven-year high in the second quarter.
“We might even see a decline in default rates again in the third and fourth quarters of this year,” said Apostolos Bantis, a Dubai-based credit analyst at Commerzbank AG, who recommends investing in Latin American company bonds. “The overall outlook now is more positive for emerging-markets corporates because the Fed is very unlikely to move any time soon following the Brexit.”
Uncertain outcomes
The policy uncertainty engulfing the developed world has boosted the appeal of emerging countries, usually viewed by investors as more vulnerable to political risk. Yields on a Bloomberg index tracking developing-nation corporate bonds have fallen 27 basis points to 5.19% since the UK vote, adding to a recovery that started when oil prices began rebounding from a 20 January low.
The sentiment shift means that defaults are probably past their peak, according to Kathy Collins, an analyst at Aberdeen Asset Management in London. By 28 June, S&P Global Ratings had recorded 10 emerging-market corporate defaults in the second quarter, the worst quarterly tally since mid-2009. The rating company’s 12-month junk-bond default rate climbed to 3.2% at the end of May from 2.9% at the end of April.
“Given where commodity prices are at the moment, we’re not expecting too many more defaults,” Collins said. “In the first six months of this year, we’ve seen a lot of companies be very proactive in terms of tenders and buybacks in the market.”
Buying back
Russia’s Novolipetsk Steel PJSC and shipping operator Sovcomflot OJSC have announced they intend to buy back debt totaling as much as $2 billion. Latin American bonds sales surged over the past week, which HSBC Holdings Plc partly attributed to an increased likelihood of “ultra-low global policy rates” for longer. Brazilian meat packer Marfrig Global Foods SA sold $250 million of securities to repurchase outstanding notes in a push it said would “lengthen its debt maturity profile and reduce the cost of its capital structure.”
The issuance boom may prove short lived if the prospect of Fed tightening re-emerges. The UK’s vote to end its 43-year association with the EU has also ushered in a period of uncertainty for global markets that may eventually turn investors off developing-world assets. In June, the BIS reiterated a warning that emerging market non-bank borrowers that have accumulated $3.3 trillion in dollar debt are coming under strain as their economies slow and currencies weaken.
“If we get some volatility in emerging markets, say from political noise coming from the EU, and there is no access to capital markets from some issuers, that could be really negative,” Badr El Moutawakil, an emerging-market credit strategist at Barclays Plc in London said.
Even after the Brexit dust settles, looming elections in the US, Germany, France and possibly the UK mean a lengthening list of potentially disruptive events, strengthening the hands of dovish central bankers. Emerging-market companies have raised $3.71 billion of international bonds since the UK’s referendum on 23 June.
“External factors are more supportive,” said Bantis from Commerzbank. “The default trend of the past quarter is unlikely to continue.” Bloomberg
India is considering recalibrating its strategy, including renegotiating its tariff offers, for the proposed free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU following Brexit, with demands from key sectors for a separate trade pact with the UK gathering pace, sources said. But with both the EU and the UK busy grappling with Brexit, serious trade negotiations are unlikely to start anytime soon.
Textiles secretary Rashmi Verma told FE: “Britain continues to be an important market for us, as it makes up for around 23% of the EU demand for Indian textiles and garments. We have requested the commerce ministry to look into the possibility of a bilateral preferential trade agreement (PTA) with the UK.”
The UK accounts for over a half of India’s software services exports to the EU, 23% of key engineering and electrical goods exports and 16% of jewellery, precious metal and stones exports. So, senior industry executives from these sectors endorse an FTA or PTA with the UK. Britain alone accounted for 3.4% of India’s goods exports in 2015-16, while the EU – including the UK – made up for 17%.
Nasscom president R Chandrashekhar said once the current storm settles down, the UK will also be looking to compensate itself for no longer being part of the EU trade bloc.
“At that time, a special trade arrangement or relation with India will become crucial to them. And for India, it will perhaps be a tad easier to negotiate with one nation instead of the entire EU,” he said. He, however, added that much will depend on the exact terms and conditions of Britain’s exit from the EU.
Meanwhile, sources said the government is open to a trade pact with the UK, but India also remains committed to taking the proposed EU FTA talks to its logical end. “The EU isn’t ignorable just because Britain has decided to be out of the bloc,” said one of the sources.
However, the Brexit has added to the workload of Indian negotiators as they have to deal with the UK separately now. As such, the FTA with the EU is still a work in progress, so there is a scope for renegotiation of offers in view of the Brexit reality, said the source. The government is closely monitoring the situation and a final call will be taken at an appropriate time, the source added.
With the depreciation of the pound, euro and Chinese yuan following the Brexit referendum, India’s export competitiveness to these regions has come under strain. If the situation persists, a trade pact with the UK or the EU will come handy, as fears of China pegging its currency to its advantage loom, said analysts. The pound, euro and the Chinese yuan have depreciated almost 12%, 2.3% and 1%, respectively, against the dollar while the rupee has appreciated 0.1% between the closing of June 23 and July 1.
But a foreign diplomat posted in New Delhi said: ”Their (the EU’s) job is already cut out. They have to first finalise the terms of the British exit, which is a mammoth and complex task. Both the parties have to recalibrate their strategy even at the WTO. In such a situation, starting another front of negotiations (with India) could take some time,” he said.
As such, differences already persist on the broad contours of the proposed FTA, including on EU’s insistence that India cut import duties on auto parts and wine and strengthen intellectual property rights regime and Indian demand for greater liberalisation in services.
Anwarul Hoda, a former deputy director general at the WTO and current chair professor for trade policy at Icrier, said the Brexit holds some potentially good news for India, apart from the obvious shocks. “The UK is more liberal than the rest of the EU. So, it could still be easier for India to clinch an FTA with the UK than with the EU.”
There is a fair amount of chance that an FTA with the UK, if talks are initiated simultaneously, will be sealed before such a deal with the EU, he said. In fact, Britain doesn’t have the same baggage as the EU. For instance, the UK may not stubbornly insist on the removal of tariff barriers in automobiles as the EU, as the former isn’t a major auto player.
The EU hasn’t yet given the dates for a resumption of the FTA talks, said the source mentioned earlier. Recently, commerce minister Nirmala Sitharaman had written to her EU counterpart, asking for dates to resume the negotiations.
JPMorgan Chase & Co today said it has received Reserve Bank’s approval to open three more branches in the country.
The bank will open new branches at New Delhi, Devanahalli (near Bengaluru) and Paranur (near Chennai) in the next few months, it said in a statement.
“We are seeing an increasing level of cross-location and cross-border activity among our clients as they capture business opportunities driven by the country’s economic growth.
These branches will further enhance our capability to better serve our clients in India and overseas,” JPMorgan Chase Bank India MD and CEO Madhav Kalyan said.
JPMorgan will provide all existing products and services through these new branches, including cash management, trade finance and foreign-currency payments.
At present, the bank serves its clients from Mumbai branch.
“Our strategy is to follow our clients’ priorities. The expansion endorses our long-term commitment to India, a key market for JPMorgan, as well as for many of our clients,” JPMorgan South & South East Asia CEO Kalpana Morparia said.
The World Bank Group signed an agreement with the International Solar Alliance (ISA), consisting of 121 countries, led by India. It has committed to provide $1 billion support to Indian solar energy projects.
The World Bank-supported projects include solar rooftop technology, infrastructure for solar parks, bringing innovative solar and hybrid technologies to market and transmission lines for solar-rich states. The cumulative investment in solar would be the World Bank’s largest financing in this sector for any country.
ISA was launched at the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris at end-November last year, by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and French President François Hollande. Through ISA, India aims to collaborate with global agencies and mobilise around $1 trillion of investment in solar energy by 2030.
The agreement was signed for India by Arun Jaitley and Piyush Goyal, the minister of finance and coal, power & renewable energy, respectively, and World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim.
“India’s plans to virtually triple the share of renewable energy by 2030 will both transform the country’s energy supply and have far-reaching global implications in the fight against climate change,” said Jim Yong Kim. He hopes this agreement would spur a global movement.
The World Bank Group will develop a road map to mobilise financing for development and deployment of affordable solar energy, and work with other multilateral development banks and financial institutions to develop financing instruments in this regard.
The World Bank also signed an agreement to give close to $625 million for the Grid Connected Rooftop Solar Programme under the National Solar Mission. The project will finance the installation of around 400 megawatt of solar photovoltaic power projects. The development of a $200-million shared infrastructure for the Solar Parks Project under a public-private partnership model, is also under preparation, said the Bank.
In what showed a mindset shift among India’s policymakers, the government on Monday opened the floodgates for foreign direct investment (FDI) by easing the terms for nine sectors
In what showed a mindset shift among India’s policymakers, the government on Monday opened the floodgates for foreign direct investment (FDI) by easing the terms for nine sectors. Showing scant signs of legacy inhibitions, it virtually paved the way for even foreign airlines to acquire their Indian counterparts, removed the condition of domestic access to state-of-the-art technology for 100% FDI in the defence sector and put in abeyance the fractious 30% local sourcing norm for FDI in single-brand retail of advanced-technology products.
Despite the local pharma industry’s oft-expressed fear of being swamped by Big Pharma, foreign firms can now take majority (up to 74%) ownership in Indian drugmakers via the automatic route, which could again catalyse big-ticket M&A activity in the sector.
With the relaxations in the aviation sector, even a foreign airline could acquire 100% ownership in an India airline company by working in concert with a related party, according to some analysts. For example, a Qatar Airways could acquire a GoAir by directly picking up a 49% in the Indian firm and lapping up the balance equity through the West Asian nation’s sovereign wealth fund, Qatar Investment Authority.
Analysts, however, said the government seems to have tightened the sourcing rule in single-brand retailing, instead of giving a blanket exemption from such a rule for entities having “cutting-edge” technology, as was the case earlier. For instance, Apple will be exempted from the local sourcing rule for three years and have a relaxed sourcing regime for another five years if it wants to set up its own retail store, as its technology has already been described as “cutting edge” by a government panel. However, the company will still have to start local sourcing from the fourth year itself, thanks to the insistence of the finance ministry, which wanted that the Make in India programme get a boost. Similarly, Chinese company LeEco will be subjected to the same conditions if its claim of having “cutting edge” technology is endorsed by the panel headed by department of industrial policy and promotion secretary Ramesh Abhishek. However, another Chinese smartphone maker, Xiaomi, which recently withdrew its application for such a waiver, will have to comply with the mandatory 30% sourcing rule from the beginning should it wish to set up its own retail store.
Commenting on the new FDI policy for airlines, Amber Dubey, partner and India head of aerospace and defence at KPMG in India, said: “The avoidable controversies on settling ‘ownership and control’ issue is now over. Foreign airlines can now focus on the customers and competition rather than wasting time on legal and regulatory issues.”
“The likely increase in competition will bring down prices and enhance air penetration in India, both international and domestic. Indian carriers can now look for enhanced valuations in case they wish to raise funds or go for partial or complete divestment,” he added.
Calling the new norms a “bit tricky”, Amrit Pandurangi, senior director, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India, said, “Foreign airline investment is restricted to 49% and FDI investment in this sector has been opened up to 100%, so if the beyond the portion of the equity is by a related entity, then that needs to be tested.”
Among domestic airlines, the Rahul Bhatia-controlled Interglobe Enterprises holds close to 43% in IndiGo, Ajay Singh has a 60% stake in SpiceJet and Naresh Goyal holds 51% in Jet Airways. While Tata Sons holds 51% in both Vistara Airlines and AirAsia India, GoAir is wholly owned by the Wadia Group.
In defence, the decision to scrap the condition of access to “state-of-the-art technology” for FDI beyond 49% (through government route) will make it easier for foreign investors to invest in India. Already, Russian firm Kalashnikov is reportedly looking for local partners for manufacturing in India. Similarly, Swedish defence major Saab is learnt to be looking at more than 49% FDI in defence in its joint venture with a local partner to make the Gripen aircraft in India.
The government’s move to allow 100% FDI through the automatic route (earlier it was up to just 49%) in the broadcast carriage industry, comprising teleports, cable, direct-to-home (DTH) players, HITS (head-end-in-the sky) and mobile TV operators will provide a breather to the cable industry which has been struggling with the process of digitalisation of cable TV. The government has also allowed 74% FDI (49% under automatic route and through government approval beyond this ceiling) in private security agencies. Earlier, only 49% of FDI through government route was allowed.
Also allowed now is 100% FDI in animal husbandry (including breeding of dogs), pisciculture, aquaculture and apiculture under the automatic route under controlled conditions. It has been decided to do away with this requirement of ‘controlled conditions’ for FDI in these activities.
“For establishment of branch office, liaison office or project office or any other place of business in India if the principal business of the applicant is Defence, Telecom, Private Security or Information and Broadcasting, it has been decided that approval of Reserve Bank of India or separate security clearance would not be required in cases where FIPB approval or license/permission by the concerned Ministry/Regulator has already been granted,” a PMO statement said..
Monday’s is the second largest FDI liberalisation initiative by the Modi government, after the steps taken in November 2015. Prime Minister Narendra Modi tweeted: “In two years, Govt brings major FDI policy reforms in several key sectors… India now the most open economy in the world for FDI; most sectors under automatic approval route.” He added: “Today’s FDI reforms will give a boost to employment, job creation & benefit the economy.”
In what seemed to indicate that the government’s intention was indeed to let foreign airlines acquire Indian firms and thereby augment their capital and fleet strength for the benefit of air travellers, economic affairs secretary Shaktikanta Das said that Monday’s reforms in the sector were a “game changer”.
India’s FDI inflows increased to $55.5 billion in FY16 from $36 billion in FY14. Net FDI inflows stood at $36 billion in FY16 compared with $32.6 billion in FY15.
Commerce and industry minister Nirmala Sitharaman, however, rejected assumptions that the government decided to announce so many FDI policy reforms in one go to divert public attention from RBI governor Raghuram Rajan’s decision to not continue at the central bank after his current tenure ends on September 4. The reforms are a result of months of deliberations among various departments and are not announced in a hurry to divert attention, she affirmed.
China’s total borrowings were more than double its gross domestic product (GDP) last year, a government economist said, warning that debt linkages between the state and industry could be “fatal” for the world’s second largest economy.
The country’s debt has ballooned as Beijing has made getting credit cheap and easy in an effort to stimulate slowing growth, unleashing a massive debt-fuelled spending binge.
While the stimulus may help the country post better growth numbers in the near term, analysts say the rebound might be short-lived.
China’s borrowings hit 168.48 trillion yuan ($25.6 trillion) at the end of last year, equivalent to 249 per cent of the economy’s GDP, Li Yang, a senior researcher with a top government think tank, the China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), told reporters yesterday.
The number, while enormous, is still lower than some outside estimates.
Consulting firm the McKinsey Group has said that the country’s total debt was likely as high as $28 trillion by mid-2014.
CASS, in a report last year, said China’s debt amounted to 150.03 trillion yuan at the end of 2014, according to previous Chinese media reports.
The most worrying risks lie in the non-financial corporate sector, where the debt-to-GDP ratio was estimated at 156 per cent, including liabilities of local government financing vehicles, Li said.
Many of the companies in question are state-owned firms that borrowed heavily from government-backed banks and so problems with the sector could ultimately trigger “systemic risks” in the economy, he said.
DRAGON IN TROUBLE
China’s borrowings hit ¥168 trn ($25.6 trn) at the end of last year, equivalent to 249% of the economy’s GDP
McKinsey Group said country’s total debt as high as $28 trn by mid-2014
Most worrying risks lie in the non-financial corporate sector, where the debt-to-GDP ratio was estimated at 156%
Problem will also affect state coffers because Chinese banks are “closely linked to the government”
The People’s Bank of China has announced that new loans extended by banks jumped to ¥985.5 bn last month, up from ¥555.6 bn in April
“The gravity of China’s non-financial corporate (debt) is that if problems occur with it, China’s financial system will have problems immediately,” Li said. He added that the problem will also affect state coffers because Chinese banks are “closely linked to the government”.
“It’s a fatal issue in China. Because of such a link, it is probably more urgent for China than other countries to resolve the debt problem,” he said.
Speaking earlier this week, David Lipton, first deputy managing director with the International Monetary Fund, also singled out China’s corporate borrowing as a major concern, warning that addressing the issue is “imperative to avoid serious problems down the road”.
Despite the concerns, China is having difficulty kicking its credit addiction. On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China announced that new loans extended by banks jumped to 985.5 billion yuan last month, up from 555.6 billion yuan in April.
Seeking to enhance its ties with resource-rich Tanzania, India on Sunday extended its full support to the country to meet its development needs and signed five agreements, including one for providing a Line of Credit of $92 million in the water resources sector.
A with the UK than with the EU.”
