GST lends more weight to India’s 8% growth projection: S&P

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Calling GST as the most important structural reform till date by the Modi government, S&P Global Ratings today said the passage of the indirect tax law gives it additional conviction of India clocking 8 per cent growth in the next few years.

“India’s GST passage gives us additional conviction around our 8%-ish GDP growth forecast over the next few years,” it said in a report titled ‘Asia-Pacific steadies while China goes silent’.

The rating agency had last month projected India to clock a “steroid-free” growth of 8 per cent in coming years. “The GST passage is arguably the most important structural reform to date by the Modi government and will improve efficiency, cross-state trade and tax buoyancy,” it said today.

It saw a reasonably firm pick-up in Asia-Pacific’s macro momentum indicators, with pick-up in retail sales offering the clearest sign in most of the region’s economies. This, it said, stems from rising income, which in turn is part of the region’s evolving growth dynamics, with consumption playing a larger role.

S&P said China has been nudged up as it raised the GDP growth forecast by about a quarter percentage point in 2016 and 2017 to 6.6 per cent and 6.4 per cent, respectively, and has kept its 2018 forecast roughly unchanged at 6.1 per cent.

Japan’s second-quarter out turn was weaker than expected, it said, adding that its 0.7 per cent GDP growth forecast for 2016 looked like “a mild stretch at this point”.

In its ‘APAC Economic Snapshots — September 2016’ report, it had stated that India’s structural reforms agenda had maintained strong momentum and, most recently with the GST passage, should propel growth higher. “For India, we are still forecasting GDP growth at about 8 per cent over the next few years. Moreover, this is relatively high quality, steroid—free growth backed by a broadening consumption base,” S&P had said.

“Inflation remains a risk, given the large weights on food, fuel, and other volatile items in the Reserve Bank of India’s target basket,” S&P had said.

The latest gross domestic production (GDP) figures showed that India’s growth slowed to 7.1 per cent in the April-June quarter, from 7.9 per cent in January-March.

RBI has also said the near-term growth outlook for India seems brighter than last fiscal’s and the economy is likely to expand at 7.6 per cent in 2016-17.

Source: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/gst-lends-more-weight-to-indias-8-growth-projection-sp/article9208148.ece

India’s banking outlook stable, worst asset quality cycle almost over: Moody’s

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India’s banking system outlook is likely to be stable over the next 12-18 months as the pace of formation of bad loans is expected to decrease compared to last five years, global rating agency Moody’s said today. Under the asset quality recognition (AQR) of the Reserve Bank, lenders have recognised a major portion of their non-performing assets (NPAs) or bad loans, it said. “The pace of deterioration in asset quality over the next 12-18 months should be lower than what was seen over the last five years, especially compared to the fiscal 2015-16, even as we take into account some remaining problem loan under -recognition in a handful of large accounts,” said Moody’s Vice- President and Senior Credit Officer Srikanth Vadlamani.

Aside from these legacy issues, the underlying asset trend for Indian banks will be stable because of a generally supportive operating environment, he added. Moody’s said the stable outlook for the banks over the next 12-18 months reflects its assessment that the system is moving past the worst of its asset quality down cycle. The credit rating firm today released a report — ‘Banking System Outlook — India: Bottoming Asset Cycle, Strong Liquidity Support Stable Outlook’. The agency rates 15 banks in the country that together account for around 70 per cent of system assets. The ratings outlook on 11 of the banks is positive. Vadlamani expects net interest margins (NIMs) of banks to stabilise, given the expectation of limited policy rate cuts over the next 12 months, with an upside risk coming from current changes in portfolio mixes in favour of higher yielding retail loans.

“Credit costs will also remain high for the sector, including for some private sector banks, but will be no higher than in recent years for the industry overall.” Indian banks’ capital strength will continue to show divergence between the weak public banks and the far stronger private lenders, he said. State-owned banks will require significant external infusions of equity capital over the next three years. “For state-run banks to have a credit growth of 12-15 per cent over the next three years, equity capital requirement will be of USD 1.2 trillion,” he said.

The PSU banks have not been able to demonstrate access to the equity capital markets, while the announced capital infusion plans of the Government fall short of the amount required for full recapitalisation, Vadlamani said. “A potential way to bridge this capital shortfall would be to slow loan growth to the low single digits over the next three years,” he said.

Source: http://indianexpress.com/article/business/banking-and-finance/indias-banking-system-outlook-stable-worst-asset-quality-cycle-almost-over-moodys-3039297/

Forex reserves hit fresh all-time high, cross $371 billion

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The country’s forex reserves continued to scale new highs, with the week to September 9 adding $3.513 billion to the kitty, which hit a new life-time peak of $371.279 billion, RBI data showed today.

The reserves had increased by $989.5 million to $367.76 billion in the previous reporting week.

The reserves are more than sufficient to cover nearly 13 months of exports.

The surge indicates that new RBI Governor Urjit Patel is continuing with his predecessor Raghuram Rajan’s policy of building up the forex reserves. The three-year tenure of Rajan saw the RBI adding a net of $92 billion to the kitty.

Foreign currency assets (FCAs), a major component of the overall reserves, swelled by $3.509 billion to $345.747 billion for the week ended September 9, the Reserve Bank said.

FCAs, expressed in dollar terms, include the effect of appreciation/depreciation of non-US currencies such as the euro, pound and the yen held in the reserves.

Gold reserves, however, were unchanged at $21.64 billion at the end of the reporting week, the apex bank said.

The country’s special drawing rights with the International Monetary Fund increased by $5.3 million to $1.493 billion, while the reserve position with the fund was down by $1.3 million to $2.395 billion, it added.

Source: http://www.financialexpress.com/economy/forex-reserves-hit-fresh-all-time-high-cross-371-billion/379908/

India’s microfinance industry clocked 60% growth in fiscal 2016: Report

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After years of subdued growth, the Indian microfinance (MFI) industry expanded more than 60% to Rs54,329 crore in 2015-16 compared to the previous year, according to a report prepared by Sa-Dhan, the self regulatory organisation of MFIs.

The MFI client base expanded by 2.8 million in the year, taking the total number of clients to 39.9 million, said the report. This growth was despite the fact that Bandhan, which was the largest MFI, moved out of the space to become a full fledged bank.

The top 10 MFIs classified as non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) accounted for about 80% of the total gross loan value, the report said. They include Janalakshmi Financial Services Ltd, Ujjivan Financial Services Ltd and SKS Microfinance Ltd.

“Attaining over 28 lakh clients is no mean feat. This goes on to show that the microfinance industry, having reached its inflection point, is growing steadfastly,” P. Sathish, executive director of Sa-Dhan, said.

The MFI sector experienced a crisis after Andhra Pradesh, the biggest market for small loans made to the unbanked poor and self-employed, in 2010 clamped down on micro lenders.

The state government tightened regulations governing MFIs after reports surfaced that coercive loan recovery practices by the lenders had driven some overextended borrowers to commit suicide. That led to a shrinking of the asset base of the microfinance industry and a surge in bad loans.

Of the total client base of 39.9 million, the southern region alone contributed to 39% of the total client base. Kerala and Karnataka now have the maximum number of MFI branches.

The growth in this sector is also due to Reserve Bank of India allowing many NBFC-MFIs to act as banking correspondents (BCS) connecting commercial banks with customers in small towns and rural areas.

“The MFIs are finding the BC model rather attractive on the credit side,” Sathish added.

The report also claims that 94% of the total loans taken from MFIs are for income generating activities, dominated by agriculture and animal husbandry.

Source: http://www.livemint.com/Industry/4Zb0zp5yOh0toqEdBFz4jL/Indias-microfinance-industry-clocked-60-growth-in-fiscal-2.html

Microfinance lending hits $10 billion

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India’s microfinance industry is close to touching the $10-billion mark with the total loan portfolio of microfinance institutions (MFIs) at an all-time high of Rs. 63,853 crore as of March 31, 2016.

This represents a 31 per cent increase over the Rs. 48,882 crore loan portfolio as of end-March 2015, the Bharat Microfinance Report 2016 showed. The share of NBFC-MFIs stood over 88 per cent, followed by Societies and Trusts at 9 per cent. Nearly 88 per cent of the portfolio is held by MFIs with a portfolio size above Rs. 500 crore. The Bharat Microfinance Report 2016 — published by self-regulatory organisation Sa-Dhan — was released by Reserve Bank of India Executive Director US Paliwal and SIDBI Chairman and Managing Director Kshatrapati Shivaji in the Capital on Wednesday. The sector witnessed a healthy growth in client base with over 28 lakh new members taking the total number of clients to over 399 lakh. But the average loan per borrower of Rs. 11,425 is less than previous year’s Rs. 13,162.

MFI loan portfolio continued to grow at a good clip despite Bandhan, which was then the largest MFI, becoming a bank. If Bandhan’s loan portfolio of Rs. 9,524 crore of 2014-15 is excluded, then the growth rate of the MFI sector between 2014-15 and 2015-16 is over 60 per cent, said P Satish, Executive Director, Sa-Dhan.

“Despite Bandhan going out of the microfinance space, the sector witnessed strong growth. Attaining over 28 lakh clients is no mean feat. This goes to show that the microfinance industry, having reached its inflection point, is growing steadily,” Satish added.

Satish, however, expressed some concern over 13 MFIs recording over 100 per cent growth rates. He also said that MFIs are finding the business correspondent model rather attractive on the credit side.

If Bandhan’s loan portfolio of Rs. 9,524 crore of 2014-15 is excluded, then the growth rate of the MFI sector between 2014-15 and 2015-16 is over 60 per cent: Sa-Dhan ED

 

Source: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/todays-paper/tp-money-banking/microfinance-lending-hits-10-b/article9108686.ece

Banks can accept tax dues in cash under IDS: RBI

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The Reserve bank of India (RBI) on Thursday directed banks to accept tax dues in cash under the domestic black money declaration scheme which closes on September 30. Under the Income Declaration Scheme, 2016, which came into effect on June 1, one can come clean by paying tax, penalty and cess totalling 45 per cent of the undisclosed income.

It was brought to RBI’s notice by the government that “banks are hesitant” in allowing deposit of large amounts of cash by declarants under the scheme.


“We advise that banks must invariably accept cash, irrespective of amount, over the counters from all declarants who desire to deposit cash at the counters, including deposits under the above Scheme through challan ITNS- 286,” the central bank said.

The banks, however, have to comply with the Know Your Customer requirements.

Source: http://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/banks-can-accept-tax-dues-in-cash-under-ids-rbi-116090801067_1.html

Reserve Bank widens market for sale of stressed assets

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In a bid to improve the sale of bad loans by lenders, the Reserve Bank of India has allowed banks to sell these assets to other banks, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) or financial institutions. It has also made banks’ boards more accountable for stress resolution.

“Prospective buyers need not be restricted to SCs/RCs (securitisation companies/reconstruction companies). Banks may also offer the assets to other banks/NBFCs/FIs, etc, who have the necessary capital and expertise in resolving stressed assets,” said RBI.

The RBI believes this will lead to better price discovery, and to attract more buyers lenders have been asked to follow the e-auction process. Prospective buyers should also be given a minimum of two weeks for due-diligence and in case the exposure is above Rs 50 crore, then banks need to get at least two external valuation reports.

The head of banking and finance practice with an international advisory firm said while the intent was good, it was more an effort to regularise the process by specifying rules for asset sale. But, instead of leaving it to bank boards to decide on the valuation framework, the regulator could specify the standard policy for asset sale.

To expedite the process, RBI has nudged banks to use the “Swiss challenge method” to sell non-performing loans of recent vintage. Under this method, an entity (bank or lender) that receives an unsolicited bid for an asset or project has to publish the bid and invite third parties to match or exceed it. The entity that submits the unsolicited bid will be allowed to match or better the ensuing best bid.

RBI has decided to restrict banks’ investment in security receipts (SRs) backed by their own stressed assets. This is being done to ensure that there is “true sale of assets,” said RBI.  The central bank has said from April 1, 2017, when SRs’ value is above 50 per cent of the amount of assets sold, banks need to make higher provisioning that should either be the net asset value declared by the SCs/RCs or provisioning as if it was a direct loan. However, from April 1, 2018, the threshold will be reduced to 10 per cent.

These ARCs or SCs will also have the first right of refusal in case they have already acquired a significant share, 25-30 per cent, of the asset.

Lenders have been asked to set up a board for early recognition and sale of assets, which must conduct periodic review at least once a year, and the board needs to be involved in the entire sale process, RBI said.

According to the norms, banks need to adopt a “top-down” process, which means their head offices will be involved in identification of the assets. This is in line with several steps taken by RBI to tackle rising stressed loans, which at the end of the quarter ended June stood at 12 per cent of the total advances.

Source: http://www.business-standard.com/article/finance/reserve-bank-widens-market-for-sale-of-stressed-assets-116090101033_1.html