FPI inflows: India’s forex reserves all set to hit whopping $400 bn mark; here is how long it took and why

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The reserves are hitting the psychological threshold also because benign current account deficits over the last few quarters had allowed RBI to use less of the reserves to finance it.
India’s foreign exchange reserves have climbed tantalizingly close to the $400-billion mark on September 1 on the back of strong foreign portfolio investments into the Indian market, especially the debt segment

The reserves are hitting the psychological threshold also because benign current account deficits over the last few quarters had allowed RBI to use less of the reserves to finance it.

To be sure, the latest $100 billion addition to the reserves has taken close to 10s years. The $300 billion mark was reached in February 2008, while the previous $100 billion was accumulated in a span of just eleven months.

While the rupee remains strong against the dollar at levels of 64 having appreciated 6% so far in 2017, few would have anticipated this strength, especially after the free fall of the currency in mid-2013 when it slipped all the way to 68.85 against the greenback (the forex reserves had plunged by more than $17 billion during this period).

The other critical period for the reserves and currency was in 2008, during the financial crisis when the currency lost almost 25% of its value between May and November. In this period, the reserves fell by a little over $70 billion to $245.8 billion.

Currently, the reserves take care of approximately 12 months of imports; in the past the reserves have typically covered seven to eight months of imports. Interestingly, India has seen the third-highest reserves accretion globally after Switzerland and China, so far in 2017.

According to Indranil Sengupta, chief economist at Bank of India Merrill Lynch, RBI has been intervening fairly aggressively in the forex market and might continue to do so if the dollar weakens but perhaps less so if the greenback was to strengthen.

After a brief overnight pause, the rupee was again caught in a downward spiral and slipped by 12 paise to 64.12 against the US dollar on Thursday on fresh demand for the American currency from banks and importers amid persistent foreign capital outflows. Foreign portfolio investors sold shares worth a net Rs 827 crore on the day.

Meanwhile, India’s CAD, which stood at 0.7% in the fourth quarter of last fiscal is expected to widen sharply to 3% in Q1FY18 due to a sharp deterioration in the merchandise trade deficit. According to Sonal Varma, chief economist at Nomura, the low commodity prices in the last two years have resulted in the CAD narrowing to about 1% of GDP. “With commodity prices marginally higher and a cyclical recovery expected in coming quarters, we expect the current account deficit to widen to a steady state of around 1.5-2.0% of GDP (for FY18),” Varma said.

Currently, as the central bank continues to shore up the reserves, it appears to be depending more on forward purchases than the spot market. This is due to the abundant liquidity in the system which prevents excessive action in the spot market.

MV Srinivasan, vice-president, Mecklai Financial Services believes the RBI is attempting to prevent any appreciation of the rupee beyond 63.80 levels. “The central bank is trying to rein in the excess liquidity in the system through OMO sales and dollar purchases in the spot will counter these measures,” he says.

Srinivasan believes that if the US Federal Reserve begins to reduce its balance sheet size, there could be forex outflows following which the RBI might intervene to stabilise the markets. Net portfolio inflows to the India’s bond and stock markets have been to the tune of $26.7 billion so far in 2017.

Source: Financial Express

World Bank accepts many of Modi govt’s reform claims, big thumbs-up likely next month

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The government expects a double-digit improvement in India’s rank in the global index on ease of doing business, likely to be announced by the World Bank next month.

A senior official told ET that the World Bank had shared its feedback, stating that it had accepted many of the reforms claimed by the government. Last year, India’s rank had improved by just one spot to 130 among 190 countries.

“The World Bank has acknowledged around 20 reforms among many more mentioned by us in response to their study … The overall ranking will depend on how other countries have performed, but we should come close to the 100 mark,” the official said.

The World Bank had recently finished gathering feedback from users for its Doing Business Report. The cut-off date for implementing reforms for the study was June 1. Reforms implemented thereafter will not be counted for this year’s ranking.

Reforms such as GST have not been taken into account as the impact is yet to be felt by users. But India is expecting these to reflect in next year’s report and significantly boost the country’s position.

India had showed one of its poorest performances on the parameter of ‘Paying Taxes’ last time, ranking 172 among the countries surveyed for the report. That, along with an equally lower position in ‘Enforcing Contracts’, landed India at the 130th spot, falling behind countries such as Mexico (38), Russia (51) and Pakistan (138). The ranking considers business environment in Delhi and Mumbai.

Over the past few months, the government has taken up concerns about not getting due credit for its reform drive with the World Bank. While responding to the survey this year, the government flagged such issues citing examples of reforms undertaken for enforcing contracts, starting business and issuing construction permits, among other things.

The government also cited provisions in the existing legal framework that deal effectively with the issue of enforcing contracts.

ET View: Push legal reforms
The way ahead is to push reforms. India fares poorly, for example, in enforcing contracts. We need judicial reforms to drastically reduce legal delays. So, even if states improve lower courts, disputes could end up in the higher judiciary and the reform lies with the Centre. The Department of Justice should drive the reforms. The need is also to enhance transparency in funding of political parties. It will weed out corruption that will automatically improve ease of doing business.

Read more at: The Economic Times

Filing Dates for GSTRs for July extended by a month to October 10

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Recommendations made by the GST Council in the 21st meeting at Hyderabad on 9th September, 2017

 

Press Information Bureau
Government of India
Ministry of Finance

09-September-2017 20:19 IST

 

The GST Council, in its 21st meeting held at Hyderabad on 9th September 2017, has recommended the following measures to facilitate taxpayers:

  1. a) In view of the difficulties being faced by taxpayers in filing returns, the following revised schedule has been approved:
Sl. No. Details / Return Tax Period Revised due date
1 GSTR-1 July, 2017 10-Oct-17
For registered persons with aggregate turnover of more than Rs. 100 crores, the due date shall be 3rd October 2017
2 GSTR-2 July, 2017 31-Oct-17
3 GSTR-3 July, 2017 10-Nov-17
4 GSTR-4 July-September, 2017 18-Oct-17 (no change)
Table-4 under GSTR-4 not to be filled for the quarter July-September 2017. Requirement of filing GSTR-4A for this quarter is dispensed with.
5 GSTR-6 July, 2017 13-Oct-17
Due dates for filing of the above mentioned returns for subsequent periods shall be notified at a later date.

b) GSTR-3B will continue to be filed for the months of August to December, 2017.

c) A registered person (whether migrated or new registrant), who could not opt for composition scheme, shall be given the option to avail composition till 30th September 2017 and such registered person shall be permitted to avail the benefit of composition scheme with effect from 1st October, 2017.

d) Presently, any person making inter-state taxable supplies is not eligible for threshold exemption of Rs. 20 lacs (Rs. 10 lacs in special category states except J & K) and is liable for registration. It has been decided to allow an exemption from registration to persons making inter-State taxable supplies of handicraft goods upto aggregate turnover of Rs. 20 lacs as long as the person has a Permanent Account Number (PAN) and the goods move under the cover of an e-way bill, irrespective of the value of the consignment.

e) Presently, a job worker making inter-State taxable supply of job work service is not eligible for threshold exemption of Rs. 20 lacs (Rs. 10 lacs in special category states except J & K) and is liable for registration.  It has been decided to exempt those job workers from obtaining registration who are making inter-State taxable supply of job work service to a registered person as long as the goods move under the cover of an e-way bill, irrespective of the value of the consignment. This exemption will not be available to job work in relation to jewellery, goldsmiths’ and silversmiths’ wares as covered under Chapter 71 which do not require e-way bill.

f) FORM GST TRAN-1 can be revised once.

g) The due date for submission of FORM GST TRAN-1 has been extended by one month i.e. 31st October, 2017.

h) The registration for persons liable to deduct tax at source (TDS) and collect tax at source (TCS) will commence from 18th September 2017. However, the date from which TDS and TCS will be deducted or collected will be notified by the Council later.

The GST Council has decided to set up a committee consisting of officers from both the Centre and the States under the chairmanship of the Revenue Secretary to examine the issues related to exports.

The GST Council has also decided to constitute a Group of Ministers to monitor and resolve the IT challenges faced during GST implementation.

 

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Forex kitty swells by $3.57 billion, closes in on $400 bn-mark

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In the previous week, the reserves had increased by USD 1.148 billion to USD 394.55 billion.

The forex reserves surged by a massive USD 3.572 billion to touch a record high of USD 398.122 billion for the week ended September 1, on account of rise in foreign currency assets, RBI data showed on Friday.

In the previous week, the reserves had increased by USD 1.148 billion to USD 394.55 billion.

Last month, American brokerage Morgan Stanley had forecast that the reserves might touch the USD 400 billion mark in the week to September 8. And if the rise in the kitty continues with the same speed, it may cross that magic numbers next week.

The foreign currency assets (FCAs), a major component of the overall reserves, increased by USD 2.808 billion to USD 373.641 billion for the reporting week, according to the data.

Expressed in US dollar terms, FCAs include the effect of appreciation or depreciation of non-US dollar currencies, such as the euro, the pound and the yen held in the reserves.

After remaining unchanged for many weeks, gold reserves also rose by USD 748.3 million to USD 20.691 billion.

The special drawing rights with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) increased by USD 6.5 million to USD 1.506 billion, the apex bank said.

The country’s reserve position with the IMF also increased by USD 9.8 million to USD 2.283 billion, it said.

Source: Zee News

SEBI warns of rising external debt risks as masala bonds surge

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The rupee-denominated bonds, popularly known as masala bonds, are likely to add to the nation’s external liabilities even if they don’t hold any risks to currency movement, a top SEBI official said.

The rupee-denominated bonds, popularly known as masala bonds, are likely to add to the nation’s external liabilities even if they don’t hold any risks to currency movement, a top Sebi official said on Wednesday.

“When money flows into the country from foreign investments, we are attracting some risks and it is not currency risk alone. Masala bonds don’t hold any currency risks but at the same time, the external liability of the country goes up. This needs to be kept in mind,” Sebi whole- time member G Mahalingam said here.

“And a huge amount of foreign inflows at a time when the currency has been substantially appreciating is something the regulators must be concerned about,” he said, addressing a capital markets summit organised by industry lobby Ficci.

The masala bonds are debt instruments through which designated domestic entities can raise funds by accessing overseas capital markets, while the bond investors hold the currency risk. In fact, the World Bank arm IFC thus far has raised the largest amount through this instrument.

According to some estimates, the masala bonds accounted for 39 per cent of the total ECBs of USD 7.39 billion reported by the Reserve Bank in the fourth quarter of FY17, while the approvals for the same rose to USD 2.9 billion over USD 0.8 billion in the third quarter.

For the full fiscal of 2017, the aggregate stood at USD 4.6 billion, according to a recent Icra data.

Of the total masala bonds of USD 4.59 billion approved during FY17, 55 per cent were for onward lending in domestic markets, 24 per cent for refinancing of the rupee loans and 14 per cent were for general corporate purposes.

Mahalingam said the Sebi is in advanced stage of talks with other regulators on allowing participation of FPIs in commodity derivatives market.

On the mutual fund industry, he said the sector should try to bring down its total expense ratio which is far higher than the comfort level. “It is time for mutual funds to shrink its margins attract more retail investors.”

He said benchmarking of returns will be healthy step for the overall industry.

Source: MoneyControl.com

Directors of Shell firms can’t join other companies’ boards

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Directors of shell companies which have not filed tax returns for three or more years will be barred from taking similar positions elsewhere or getting reappointed, the government said, as it intensified the crackdown on firms that exist only on paper.

The government has struck more than 2 lakh shell companies off the Register of Companies and put restrictions on their bank accounts as part of its clampdown on black money.

Directors of the companies that were struck off the RoC could face up to 10 years in jail if they were found siphoning off funds, the government said on Wednesday.

The government said it is compiling the profiles of the directors at such companies in collaboration with enforcement agencies and expects the move to cover 2-3 lakh people.

 Professionals such as chartered accountants, company secretaries and cost accountants associated with shell companies and involved in illegal activities have also been identified, according to a statement.

The decisions were made at a review meeting chaired by the minister of state for corporate affairs, PP Chaudhary, to strengthen the rules and procedures of corporate governance, it said.

The move “would not only help in checking the menace of black money but also would promote an ecosystem of ‘ease of doing business’ and enhancing investors’ confidence”, Chaudhary said.

Enforcement agencies are compiling profiles of directors, including their background, antecedents and role in the operations and functioning of these companies.

“All efforts are also being made to identify the actual beneficiaries and persons behind such shell companies,” the government statement said.
The government is also monitoring action being taken by professional institutes such as the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India and Institute of Company Secretaries of India.