India less vulnerable to external shocks: S&P

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Indian economy is less vulnerable to external shocks as it is mainly driven by household consumption and government spending, and not dependent on hot money which can move out quickly, Standard & Poor’s Rating Services said today.

The US-based rating agency expects the current account deficit (CAD), which is the difference between inflow and outflow of foreign exchange, to remain at a modest level of 1.4 per cent at the end of current fiscal and would continue at similar level till 2018.

“We see India as having limited vulnerability to external economic or financial shocks. This is because growth in the economy is mainly driven by domestic factors, such as household consumption and government spending.

“At the same time this is a country that has low reliance on external savings to fund its growth. In other words, the banks are mainly deposit funded and don’t rely on wholesale funding to grow their loan books,” S&P Rating Services India Sovereign Analyst Kyran Curry told PTI.

He said India’s capital markets are diversified and deep enough for companies to raise funding.

“Another favourable aspect of India external settings is that it is generally not subject to hot money inflows that can turn into outflows with shifts in investor sentiment. As such we see the external risks for India to be relatively contained,” Curry said.

He said while export growth may be disappointing, the current account deficit likely to be a modest 1.4 per cent in 2015, with similar levels through 2018.

“Our forecasts are partly informed by our view of increased monetary credibility, which dampens the demand for monetary gold imports. In addition, we expect India to fund this deficit mostly with non-debt, creating inflows,” Curry added.

The CAD in the first half of current fiscal stood at 1.4 per cent of GDP, lower than 1.8 per cent in the same period last fiscal. For full 2014-15 fiscal, the CAD stood at 1.3 per cent of GDP.

Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/50727133.cms

Startups enjoy 3 years tax holiday over a five year window

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If a startup claims benefit in first year & does not make profit in next two years, it can still enjoy tax exemption on profit in fourth and fifth year

The three-year tax holiday proposed for startups in India will be available over a five-year window, ensuring that innovators won’t lose the benefit even if they make a profit later, the government said.

Those seeking the income tax exemption, announced in the Startup Action Plan on Saturday, will need to get approval by March 2019, in line with the government’s policy to weed out exemptions and bring down the corporate tax rate to 25%. Startups approved until March 31, 2019, will enjoy the benefit for up to five years. The government has proposed that a high-level, inter-ministerial committee should vet startup proposals to validate the innovative nature of the business for granting tax-related benefits. The details of the tax benefits will be announced in the budget.

“The benefit will be available for three years over a five-year period, “a senior government official told ET. If a startup claims the benefit in the first year and does not have a profit in the next two years, it will not lose out on the exemption. If profits are made in the fourth and fifth year, they will still be eligible for the tax break.

“All startups incorporated in India not prior to five years as per the definition of startup and starting the operations before 2019 can get this benefit for three years,“ said Amitabh Kant, secretary in the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion, which piloted the startup initiative.

With the deadline for seeking exemption set for March 2019, the scheme will effectively run till March 2024, a period of eight years from now.

“This fiscal exemption shall facilitate growth of business and meet the working capital requirements during the initial years of operations, “according to the action plan document.

The policy imposes only one condition on startups claiming the benefit, apart from seeking approval from the appropriate body and meeting eligibility criteria: it should not distribute dividend while getting the tax exemption.

Tax-friendly Regime Need of the Hour for Startup Investors

The devil is in the details. The tax incentive package for startups will be clear in the Budget. But open-ended tax breaks won’t be possible as the government has already signalled a phasing out of exemptions to lower the corporate tax rate. Investments in unicorns would typically be long-term. So, it makes eminent sense to spare investors from paying capital gains tax when they sell their unlisted shares in startups after holding them for over a year. A tax-friendly regime will encourage many of them to relocate to India from, say, Singapore. The government, as promised, should end its Inspector Raj to boost the startup ecosystem.

Source: http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31816&articlexml=Startups-May-Get-5-Year-Window-to-Avail-18012016015013

 

Japan has 17th straight Current-Account Surplus in November

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A cargo ship is seen behind Japan's national flag at an industrial port in Tokyo March 8, 2012.Japan posted a current account surplus for the 17th consecutive month in November, providing support for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s efforts to boost the world’s third-largest economy.

The excess in the widest measure of the nation’s trade was 1.14 trillion yen ($9.7 billion) in November, up from 440.2 yen billion a year earlier, the Finance Ministry said Tuesday in Tokyo. The median estimate of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a surplus of 895 billion yen.

The surplus was supported by a rise in income from investments abroad by Japanese companies as well as a gain in services, which came with an influx of tourists after the yen weakened. The boost helps an economy that has been hurt by a slowdown in exports including to China, Japan’s biggest trading partner.

“The wider current account surplus bodes well for Japan’s economy,” said Junko Nishioka, chief economist for Japan at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. in Tokyo. “Going forward, Japan will likely hold onto the surplus trend.”

Declining oil prices and recent gains in the yen, which may push down import prices and improve the trade balance, is expected to help Japan maintain the current-account surplus in coming months, Nishioka said.

The primary income surplus was 1.54 trillion yen in November, the largest on record for November, according to the report. The services balance had a surplus of 61.5 billion yen, helped by charges for the use of intellectual property rights and travel.

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-12/japan-posts-17th-straight-current-account-surplus-in-november

India, Qatar to boost cooperation in hydrocarbons

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani during the welcome ceremony.

DOHA: With Qatar having the world’s third largest gas reserves and being India’s largest supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG), both countries are expected to give a fillip to cooperation in the hydrocarbons sector .

Qatar has gas reserves exceeding 900 trillion cubic feet (25 trillion cubic metres) or 14 per cent of global reserves. It is the largest LNG exporter in the world.

The Gulf Cooperation Council member accounted for 65 per cent of India’s total LNG imports last fiscal.

India is also hoping to tap the Gulf nation’s sovereign wealth fund, estimated at $300 billion, for infrastructure projects.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi , who is visiting Doha on the second leg of his five-nation foreign tour, praised the role of the Emir of Qatar in promoting business ties with India.

Modi on Sunday also invited Qatari industry leaders to invest in India.

“India is a land of opportunity. I have come to personally invite you to take advantage of this opportunity,” Modi said, according to a tweet by India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) spokesperson Vikas Swarup.

“Business First. For first engagement of the day, PM attends roundtable meeting with Qatari Business Leaders,” the spokesperson said in another tweet following Modi’s meeting here with business leaders.

“Qatar’s Minister of Trade and Economy welcomes PM Narendra Modi, seeks more intensive eco engagement with India,” it added.

This is the second prime ministerial visit from India to energy-rich Qatar in eight years after Manmohan Singh’s visit in 2008.

“It can also be a large economic partner as it has a large sovereign wealth fund,” Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar said on Friday in a pre-departure media briefing.

Bilateral trade between India and Qatar stands at $10 billion.

Earlier this year, India re-negotiated favourably its LNG agreement with Qatar to bring down the cost of importing natural gas to less than $5 per unit from $12.

In return for the renegotiation, India’s Petronet LNG has signed an agreement for additional import of one million tonnes of LNG per year from Qatar’s Ras Gas for about 12 years with effect from January 1, this year, at the prevailing market prices.

Ras Gas will also not seek Rs.12,000 crore from Petronet for under-lifting LNG by 38 per cent.

The new contract is effective from January 1, 2016, and ends in 2028.

Modi addressed Indian workers at a medical camp in Doha on Saturday night. There are 6,30,000 Indians living in Qatar comprising the largest expatriate community in that country.

Modi, who arrived here from Afghanistan, will also visit Switzerland, the US and Mexico during his seven-day sojourn.

Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/52603895.cms

FTA with EU: India to take up ‘stock-taking exercise’

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FTA with EU: India to take up ‘stock-taking exercise’ for a free trade agreement with the EU later this month, after a gap of three years, and pitch for greater market access in services..

India will undertake a “stock-taking exercise” for a free trade agreement with the EU later this month, after a gap of three years, and pitch for greater market access in services once the stage is set for further negotiations, a senior commerce ministry official said.

Before engaging in serious formal talks on the EU-India Bilateral Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA), a “stock-taking exercise” will be undertaken, as some contours of the earlier negotiations have to be altered, keeping in view the changes that have taken place since the talks were stuck in 2013, Arvind Mehta, additional secretary in the commerce ministry, told FE.

For instance, India has further liberalised many sectors for foreign investments, including some of the areas where the EU had interests, over the past three years. For instance, the FDI cap in insurance has been raised to 49% from 26% and 100% FDI is allowed in telecoms. In private sector banking, full fungibility of foreign investment is now permitted and accordingly FIIs/FPIs/QFIs can now invest up to a sectoral limit of 74%, with certain conditions.

While India feels the flexibilities shown by it in further opening up to foreign investments should be considered positively by the EU, it also expects some reciprocal measures by the 28-member bloc to address its concerns, especially on data privacy and market access in the services sector. However, there will be no binding commitments until India’s core concerns are addressed suitably, Mehta said. The BTIA negotiations cover boosting goods and services trade as well as investment.

India seeks a data secure status because the high compliance cost with EU’s data protection laws will hit small and medium enterprises (SMEs) of India and make them un-competitive.

Mehta said India will be betting for a trade facilitation agreement (TFA) in services at the World Trade Organisation — similar to the TFA in goods — that would focus on liberalised visa regime, long term visas for business community and freer movement of professionals for the greater benefit of both India and the world. India will pursue it vigorously in negotiations for the BTIA as well as Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. RCEP is a proposed FTA between the Asean members and the six states with which it has forged FTAs, including India.

Gr3

India is keen on services, as they account for over a half of its GDP. The EU is India’s largest trade partner, accounting for close to 15% of trade in both goods and services. It is a major market for Indian textiles, garments, pharmaceuticals, gems and jewellery and IT. The EU is also the largest source of FDI inflows to India, accounting for over one-fourth of the total. However, India ranks only ninth among the EU’s top trade partners, making up for just about 2% of its total merchandise goods in 2014.

BTIA talks were to be revived last year, but the EU’s surprise ban on 700 products of GVK shocked India, which then called off the negotiations. Prior to that, the negotiations centred around India’s demand for.

The EU is interested in further liberalisation of FDI in multi-brand retail and insurance, and closed sectors like accountancy and legal services. The underutilised private banking space in India is another draw. India’s intellectual property regime (IPR), which is unlikely to allow ever-greening of patents, remains a concern for European pharma majors. Moreover, the EU has been seeking a cut in the high import duties on assembled vehicles and wines and spirits. In case of assembled vehicles, the import duties remain in the range of 60-75%.

Source: http://www.financialexpress.com/article/economy/fta-with-eu-india-to-take-up-stock-taking-exercise/191733/

Foreign investors find Indian realty sector attractive again after 5 years

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At least Rs 14,680 crore of funds have been raised in sector so far in current investment cycle.

Foreign investors’ interest in Indian real estate is on the rise after almost five years, India-specific fundraisings indicate.

The cycle started gaining momentum just before the 2014 general elections and at least $2.2 billion (Rs 14,680 crore) of funds have been raised so far in the current investment cycle, indicating an improvement in foreign investors’ confidence in Indian real estate, said consultancy firm JLL India. “During the pre-GFC (global financial crisis) phase, 82% of funds got raised in US dollar.

This reduced to 57% in post-GFC phase when micro-market understanding was required more than banking on the macro-economy,” said Shobit Agarwal, managing director of capital markets at JLL India. “Interestingly, the contribution, 2014-onwards, has increased considerably to 70% – hinting that the positivity is here to stay for some time.”

Recent easing of foreign direct investments rules is expected to bring in more capital into the property sector. PE funds are also looking to leverage on this rising interest among foreign investors.

“We believe this is an opportune time to invest in Indian real estate, with rigorous risk management and strong asset management.

Offshore funds are showing interest in Indian real estate and there is lot of interest from FDI funds back in Indian real estate,” said Rubi Arya, chief executive of Milestone Capital Advisors. “We are planning to leverage further on our structured debt and commercial platform to raise money from offshore funds.”

According to Arya, FDI funds are looking to invest in pre-leased commercial assets, create strategic-level partnerships with reputed developers mainly through equity deals and make structured debt investments in residential projects.

India-specific cumulative fundraising attained its peak in the pre-GFC period. During this period between 2005 and 2008, there were 50 such funds that raised $16 billion in total. However, post-GFC, only 29 funds got raised in five years, with cumulative fundraising of $3.9 billion, said the JLL India report.

Not only has the volume of investment increased, but there has also been an increase in the average investment size from $134 million to $184 million in the current cycle that started in 2014.

Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/50476154.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Govt gets Rs 2,428 cr from black money disclosures

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The national exchequer received Rs 2,428.4 crore in payments from disclosures made during a three-month long compliance window under the Black Money (Undisclosed Foreign Income and Assets) and Imposition of Tax Act last year, bolstering tax revenue collections.

This is 97 per cent of the amount due from 644 declarations made from holders of black money stashed overseas by December 31, the last day of payment.

The amount included tax and penalty on the declarations made under the three-month compliance window that ended September 30 last year on total disclosures of Rs 4,147 crore.

This added to government’s gross tax revenue collection, which touched 66 per cent of Budget Estimates for the full financial year till December, a sharp uptick from 52.4 per cent till November.

Even as government targets a fiscal deficit of 3.9 per cent during 2015-16, it is expecting a shortfall of Rs 30,000-40,000 crore in direct taxes this financial year. Besides, lower than expected nominal GDP (gross domestic product) growth at close to eight per cent will exert further pressure on the fiscal deficit target.

“The amount collected under black money disclosure is Rs 2,428 crores (97 per cent of amount due) by December 31, which was the last date of payment. The total tax revenue collected up to December this year is Rs 9.5 lakh crore, 66 per cent of Budget Estimates,” said Revenue Secretary Hasmukh Adhia in a tweet.

Source: http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/govt-gets-rs-2-428-cr-from-black-money-disclosures-116010700025_1.html