IMF says global growth recovery an opportunity for Indian economy

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IMF expects the Indian economy to recover sharply in 2018 to grow at 7.4%, though 30 basis points lower than its earlier estimate in April.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday pared its growth forecast for the Indian economy by half a percentage point to 6.7% for 2017, blaming the lingering disruptions caused by demonetisation of high value currencies last year and the roll out of the Goods and Services Tax (GST).

However, IMF said the structural reforms undertaken by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government would trigger a recovery—above 8% in the medium term.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, IMF said the global economy is going through a cyclical upswing that began midway through 2016. It raised the global growth estimate marginally for 2017 to 3.6% while flagging downside risks. The upward revisions in its growth forecasts including for the euro area, Japan, China, emerging Europe, and Russia more than offset downward revisions for the United States, the United Kingdom, and India.

“In India, growth momentum slowed, reflecting the lingering impact of the authorities’ currency exchange initiative as well as uncertainty related to the midyear introduction of the countrywide Goods and Services Tax,” it said in the WEO.

However, IMF expects the Indian economy to recover sharply in 2018 to grow at 7.4%, though 30 basis points lower than its earlier estimate in April.

One basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.

In its South Asia Economic Focus (Fall 2017) released on Monday, the World Bank reduced India’s GDP growth forecast to 7% for 2017-18 from 7.2% estimated earlier, blaming disruptions caused by demonetisation and GST implementation, while maintaining at the same time that the Indian economy would claw back to grow at 7.4% by 2019-20.

Both the Asian Development Bank as well as the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have also cut their growth projections for India to 7% and 6.7%, respectively, for fiscal 2017-18.

IMF said a gradual recovery in India’s growth trajectory is a result of implementation of important structural reforms. GST, “which promises the unification of India’s vast domestic market, is among several key structural reforms under implementation that are expected to help push growth above 8% in the medium term,” it added.

The multilateral lending agency said India needs to focus on simplifying and easing labour market regulations and land acquisition procedures which are long-standing requirements for improving the business climate. It also called for briding the gender gap in accessing social services, finance and education to accelerate growth in developing countries like India.

IMF said given faster-than-expected declines in inflation rates in many larger economies, including India, “the projected level of monetary policy interest rates for the group is somewhat lower than in the April 2017 WEO.”

In its monetary policy review last week, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its policy rates unchanged and marginally raised its inflation forecast for rest of the year.

Highlighting the growing income inequality within and among emerging market economies, IMF said a country’s growth rate does not always foretell matching gains in income for the majority of the population. “In China and India, for example, where real per capita GDP grew by 9.6% and 4.9% a year, respectively, in 1993–2007, the median household income is estimated to have grown less—by 7.3% a year in China and only 1.5% a year in India,” it said.

Source: Live Mint

Financials hit a new high in India

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Lending and borrowing money is now India’s fastest-growing segment, and the successful industry and lenders are the latest darlings of equity investors. The share of banks and non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) in the market capitalisation (market cap, or m-cap) of all listed companies is now at an all-time high, as manufacturing companies and non-financial services such as information technology (IT) battle demand slowdown.

Banks and NBFCs, including insurance companies, now account for 22.3 per cent of the combined m-cap — the highest in at least two decades, and up from 17.2 per cent in March 2014 and 17.3 per cent five-and-a-half years ago in March 2012.

In contrast, the m-cap share of manufacturing companies is now down to a 10-year low of 54 per cent, against 55 per cent at the end of FY14 and around 57 per cent five years ago.

The biggest decline has, however, been recorded by companies in the non-financial services sector, whose largest component is IT exporters such as Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, and Wipro. Non-financial services sector companies’ share in m-cap has declined to an all-time low of 23.7 per cent, against 28 per cent three years ago.

The combined m-cap of banks and NBFCs is up 145 per cent in the last three years to ~30.4 lakh crore now, growing at an annualised rate of 29 per cent since March 2014. Public sector banks have not participated in this boom as they lend largely to businesses which are now shrinking due to a virtual freeze on fresh investment by the corporate sector.

In the same period, manufacturers’ combined m-cap is up 85 per cent to ~73.6 lakh crore, growing at an annualised rate of 19.2 per cent during the period.

Non-financial services have been the laggards with the sector, with m-cap up 61 per cent during the period to ~32.4 lakh crore now, growing at an annualised rate of 14.6 per cent since March 2014.

The analysis is based on the year end m-cap and revenues of actively traded companies for every year since 1994-95. This means that the sample gets bigger every year as more companies get listed. For example in FY17, the sample had 3,552 companies, while the FY95 numbers were based on a sample of 1,551 companies. However, the absolute numbers are not important, as the analysis is based on a percentage of total m-cap.

It may not show in the overall numbers, but the boom in retail finance has had a knock-on effect on related segments in manufacturing and services. For example, most of the growth is now occurring in segments such as consumer durables, including passenger cars and two wheelers, and organised retail, where purchases are loan financed.

Experts attribute this to the growing financialisation of the Indian economy and near stagnation in industrial growth and service exports. “Private lenders and retail NBFCs continue to grow, even as the rest of the economy is on the verge of stagnation. This has made financial stocks the darlings of investors,” says G Chokkalingam, founder and MD, Equinomics Research & Advisory.

It shows in the revenue growth of listed companies vehicles or homes. across various sectors. The In the last three years, personal core revenues (or interest loans or household debt income) of banks and non-bank has grown at a CAGR of 18 per lenders grew at a compound cent, against 10.2 per cent annual growth rate compounded growth in disposable (CAGR) of 7.3 per cent in the income (at current last three years, making the prices) net of taxes during the sector one of the fastest-growing period, according to the Reserve Bank of India data.

In the same period, the all, the total household debt combined revenues of manufacturers, is up 65 per cent cumulatively including utilities in the last three years, against and construction firms, grew 35 per cent rise in disposable at a CAGR of 2.8 per cent, income during the period. while net sales of companies This has translated into a in non-financial services contracted boom in retail lending and a at an annualised rate sharp rise in valuation of of 4.8 per cent during the retail lenders such as private period. sector banks and NBFCs,

Lenders have also gained including Housing from a growing propensity of Development Finance Indians to borrow for purchasing Corporation, consumer Bajaj Finance, goods, Indiabulls Housing, Equitas Holdings, Bharat Financial Individuals, in turn, are taking Inclusion, and PNB Housing. on more risks and leveraging.

“Financials are now the their income to keep up only growth industry in the consumption despite a slowdown country. This has led to a in their income growth bubble-like valuation in the in line with the slowdown in retail lending space, especially gross domestic product NBFCs,” says growth,” says Dhananjay Sinha.

He expects the trend to robust growth in industry last for a while, given the and exports. “Consumers’ growing reliance on private income growth is dependent consumption in the economy on the performance of the despite poor growth in jobs farm, industrial and service and income. sector, especially software.

For how long can encouraging consumption people continue to borrow through fiscal spending in a and keep up their consumption bid to push up economic if income growth growth in the face of a slowdown remains depressed?” asks in corporate investment Chokkalingam.

Source: Business Standard

FPI inflows: India’s forex reserves all set to hit whopping $400 bn mark; here is how long it took and why

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The reserves are hitting the psychological threshold also because benign current account deficits over the last few quarters had allowed RBI to use less of the reserves to finance it.
India’s foreign exchange reserves have climbed tantalizingly close to the $400-billion mark on September 1 on the back of strong foreign portfolio investments into the Indian market, especially the debt segment

The reserves are hitting the psychological threshold also because benign current account deficits over the last few quarters had allowed RBI to use less of the reserves to finance it.

To be sure, the latest $100 billion addition to the reserves has taken close to 10s years. The $300 billion mark was reached in February 2008, while the previous $100 billion was accumulated in a span of just eleven months.

While the rupee remains strong against the dollar at levels of 64 having appreciated 6% so far in 2017, few would have anticipated this strength, especially after the free fall of the currency in mid-2013 when it slipped all the way to 68.85 against the greenback (the forex reserves had plunged by more than $17 billion during this period).

The other critical period for the reserves and currency was in 2008, during the financial crisis when the currency lost almost 25% of its value between May and November. In this period, the reserves fell by a little over $70 billion to $245.8 billion.

Currently, the reserves take care of approximately 12 months of imports; in the past the reserves have typically covered seven to eight months of imports. Interestingly, India has seen the third-highest reserves accretion globally after Switzerland and China, so far in 2017.

According to Indranil Sengupta, chief economist at Bank of India Merrill Lynch, RBI has been intervening fairly aggressively in the forex market and might continue to do so if the dollar weakens but perhaps less so if the greenback was to strengthen.

After a brief overnight pause, the rupee was again caught in a downward spiral and slipped by 12 paise to 64.12 against the US dollar on Thursday on fresh demand for the American currency from banks and importers amid persistent foreign capital outflows. Foreign portfolio investors sold shares worth a net Rs 827 crore on the day.

Meanwhile, India’s CAD, which stood at 0.7% in the fourth quarter of last fiscal is expected to widen sharply to 3% in Q1FY18 due to a sharp deterioration in the merchandise trade deficit. According to Sonal Varma, chief economist at Nomura, the low commodity prices in the last two years have resulted in the CAD narrowing to about 1% of GDP. “With commodity prices marginally higher and a cyclical recovery expected in coming quarters, we expect the current account deficit to widen to a steady state of around 1.5-2.0% of GDP (for FY18),” Varma said.

Currently, as the central bank continues to shore up the reserves, it appears to be depending more on forward purchases than the spot market. This is due to the abundant liquidity in the system which prevents excessive action in the spot market.

MV Srinivasan, vice-president, Mecklai Financial Services believes the RBI is attempting to prevent any appreciation of the rupee beyond 63.80 levels. “The central bank is trying to rein in the excess liquidity in the system through OMO sales and dollar purchases in the spot will counter these measures,” he says.

Srinivasan believes that if the US Federal Reserve begins to reduce its balance sheet size, there could be forex outflows following which the RBI might intervene to stabilise the markets. Net portfolio inflows to the India’s bond and stock markets have been to the tune of $26.7 billion so far in 2017.

Source: Financial Express

Attack on shell firms: MCA issues notices to errant NBFCs

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In yet another attempt to crack the whip on shell companies, the Ministry of Corporate Affairs has issued notices to companies which were supposed to act as non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) but have not registered with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

The ministry has taken this action to seek an explanation from these companies on their businesses within 10 days, a source said

If companies are found to be in the non-banking financial activities such as lending, investment or deposit acceptance as their principal business, without the RBI registration, the central bank can impose a penalty or even prosecute them in a court of law.

A similar attempt was undertaken by the RBI a few years back. In 2013, the RBI had clamped down on unregistered NBFCs after the Saradha scam. The central bank undertook such an exercise even in 2014. The pan-India figure of such entities back then was around 70,000. The number of non-registered NBFCs has risen since then, an official said.

The Securities & Exchange Board of India (Sebi) had recently put 331 companies on heightened surveillance. It also delisted entities it suspected of being shell companies. The Centre, too, has frozen bank accounts of 200,000 companies after these were struck off by Registrar of Companies. The directors of these firms were also banned.

The Centre and its agencies are not only taking corrective action but are also initiating pre-emptive steps to check the menace of dormant companies. It is working with Sebi to get all public unlisted companies to issue shares online. Experts said this would ensure greater transparency in these companies and bring down litigation.

After demonetisation, a number of shell companies were found to be operating with the same address, not directly contributing to the mainstream economy. It was then that the government sprung into action.

An NBFC is a company registered under the Companies Act, 1956, engaged in the business of loans and advances among other functions. It is also a company which receives deposits under any scheme or arrangement in one lump sum or in installments by way of contributions or in any other manner, as its principal business.

 

Source: Business Standard

Forex kitty swells by $3.57 billion, closes in on $400 bn-mark

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In the previous week, the reserves had increased by USD 1.148 billion to USD 394.55 billion.

The forex reserves surged by a massive USD 3.572 billion to touch a record high of USD 398.122 billion for the week ended September 1, on account of rise in foreign currency assets, RBI data showed on Friday.

In the previous week, the reserves had increased by USD 1.148 billion to USD 394.55 billion.

Last month, American brokerage Morgan Stanley had forecast that the reserves might touch the USD 400 billion mark in the week to September 8. And if the rise in the kitty continues with the same speed, it may cross that magic numbers next week.

The foreign currency assets (FCAs), a major component of the overall reserves, increased by USD 2.808 billion to USD 373.641 billion for the reporting week, according to the data.

Expressed in US dollar terms, FCAs include the effect of appreciation or depreciation of non-US dollar currencies, such as the euro, the pound and the yen held in the reserves.

After remaining unchanged for many weeks, gold reserves also rose by USD 748.3 million to USD 20.691 billion.

The special drawing rights with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) increased by USD 6.5 million to USD 1.506 billion, the apex bank said.

The country’s reserve position with the IMF also increased by USD 9.8 million to USD 2.283 billion, it said.

Source: Zee News

Total bad loans seen at whopping $130 bn; as defaults rise, cases at NCLT accumulate

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Stressed loans near $10-billion mark; total bad loans seen at over $130 billion; 250 NCLT cases across 10 benches
While many of the loan exposures had turned toxic in 2015 and 2016, bankers were looking to recover their dues via other schemes such as the strategic debt restructuring or the S4A (scheme for sustainable structuring of stressed assets ) and 5/25.

While many of the loan exposures had turned toxic in 2015 and 2016, bankers were looking to recover their dues via other schemes such as the strategic debt restructuring or the S4A (scheme for sustainable structuring of stressed assets ) and 5/25.

With defaults on loans and corporate bonds nudging $10 billion in 2017 so far and the total quantum of bad loans estimated to have crossed $130 billion, the number of cases at the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) has jumped to around 250 across 10 benches. At the end of March, fewer than 40 cases had been referred to the tribunal. Banks are hoping to recover their loans via the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code(IBC) and have already referred a dozen large accounts to the tribunal following a recommendation from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). They are expected to approach the tribunal for another two dozen accounts.

Apart from banks, also knocking on the doors of the NCLT are other creditors such as non-banking financial companies and asset reconstruction companies. A few corporate debtors too have approached the tribunal.

While many of the loan exposures had turned toxic in 2015 and 2016, bankers were looking to recover their dues via other schemes such as the strategic debt restructuring or the S4A (scheme for sustainable structuring of stressed assets ) and 5/25.

Consequently, several of the exposures had not been classified as non-performing assets. With the RBI asking banks to refer the cases to the NCLT, the tribunal has been inundated with cases.

Industry watchers believe that given the quality of the fixed assets — plant and machinery — at many of the companies is of good quality, the firms are unlikely to be liquidated. However, buyers will come in only if banks take big haircuts since just about 45-50% of the debt is believed to be sustainable.

Of the 12 cases referred to the NCLT, 11 have been admitted. While some of the companies — Essar Steel, Bhushan Steel and Monnet Ispat — raised objections, the tribunal overruled these.

Bhushan Steel, which owes banks a whopping Rs 44,447 crore, had earlier objected to the insolvency proceedings alleging that State Bank of India (SBI) had inflated the dues by around Rs 100 crore.

Nonetheless, SBI’s petition was admitted by the NCLT, which ordered the interim resolution professional (IRP) to take charge of the company. The IRP, along with a committee of creditors, is currently working on a resolution plan.

The central bank has recently sent a second list of defaulters like Videocon Industries, IVRCL and Visa Steel that banks must take to the bankruptcy court if stress is not resolved by December 13.

These defaults, in turn, have put pressure on banks’ balance sheets which have reported a remarkable rise in bad loans in the June quarter of FY18. India’s largest bank SBI saw its gross bad loan ratio — total non-performing loans as a percentage of its total loans — rise 86 basis points sequentially to 9.97%.

SBI has an exposure of Rs 50,247 crore to the 12 accounts referred to the NCLT and the total provision on those accounts stood at Rs 19,943 crore. SBI chairman Arundhati Bhattacharya told reporters during the results press conference that the bank requires incremental provision of Rs 8,571 crore with respect to the 12 accounts in FY18.

Source: Financial Express

 

Record reserves turn costly cash pile for RBI

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As India’s foreign-exchange reserves march toward the unprecedented $400 billion mark, its central bank faces a costly conundrum.

As India’s foreign-exchange reserves march toward the unprecedented $400 billion mark, its central bank faces a costly conundrum. To keep the rupee stable and exports competitive, it is having to mop up inflows that’s adding cash to the local banking system. Problem is, banks are flush with money following Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s demonetization program last year, leaving them already struggling to pay interest on the deposits in an environment where loans aren’t picking up. The resulting need to absorb both dollar- and rupee-liquidity is stretching the Reserve Bank of India’s range of tools and complicating policy. Costs to mop up these inflows have eroded the RBI’s earnings, halving its annual dividend to the government. “The RBI would be paying more on its sterilization bills than it gets on its reserve assets, so it would cut into its profits,” said Brad W. Setser, senior fellow at New York-based thinktank Council on Foreign Relations. “Selling sterilization paper in a country with a relatively high nominal interest rate like India is costly.”

Governor Urjit Patel aims to revert to neutral liquidity in the coming months from the current surplus. Lenders parked an average 2.9 trillion rupees ($45 billion) of excess cash with the central bank each day this month compared with 259 billion rupees the same time last year. This peaked at 5.5 trillion in March. The surge in liquidity has pushed the RBI to resume open-market bond sales as well as auctions of longer duration repos besides imposing costs on the government for special instruments such as cash management bills and market stabilization scheme bonds. Meanwhile foreign investors have poured $18.5 billion into Indian equities and bonds in the year through June, during which period the RBI has added $23.4 billion to its reserves. Its forward dollar book has also increased to a net long position of $17.1 billion end-June from a net short $7.4 billion a year ago. “My guess is reserves over 20 percent of GDP would start to raise questions about cost – but that is just a guess,” said Setser. India’s reserves have ranged between 15 and 20 percent of GDP since 2008 global crisis — a level that’s neither too low to create vulnerability or too high indicating excess intervention, he said.

Consistent buildup in the forward book may have cost the RBI some 70 billion rupees, while total liquidity-absorption costs due to the demonetization deluge from November to June were 100 billion rupees, according to calculations by Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. The RBI paid another 50 billion rupees to 70 billion rupees to print banknotes, the bank estimates. A weakening dollar would also have led to losses due to the foreign-currency cash pile, which has traditionally been dominated by the greenback. The Bloomberg Dollar Index has fallen 8.5 percent this year. After all these expenses, the RBI transferred 306.6 billion rupees as annual dividend to the government, compared with 749 billion rupees budgeted to come from the RBI and financial institutions. More clarity will emerge with the RBI’s annual report typically published in the final week of August. “This disturbs the fiscal math for the year through March 2018,” said Madhavi Arora, an economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank. Assuming everything else stays constant, she estimates the budget deficit may come in at 3.4 percent of gross domestic product rather than the government’s goal of 3.2 percent.

Apart from the high costs, there’s another dimension to the surge in liquidity. The RBI could face a shortage of bonds it places as collateral with its creditors. It is said to be preparing a fresh proposal to the government for creation of a window — the so-called standing deposit facility — which doesn’t require any collateral. “As the excess liquidity challenge looks set to persist, the RBI will need more tools to manage this, such as the standing deposit facility,” economists at Morgan Stanley, including Derrick Kam, wrote in an Aug. 16 note. He predicts that at the current rate of accretion, foreign-exchange reserves will hit $400 billion by Sept. 8 from $393 billion this month.

Source: Financial Express