ADB trims developing Asia growth forecast; India on track

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ADB today marginally cut economic growth projection for Asia and Pacific region for 2016, though India is likely to meet 7.4 per cent and 7.8 per cent growth forecast for this and the following year.

Asian Development Bank said it has cut its 2016 growth projection for developing economies in Asia and the Pacific to 5.6 per cent from earlier forecast of 5.7 per cent.

“South Asia, meanwhile is expected to be the fastest growing subregion, led by India, whose economy has shrugged off global headwinds and is on track to meet ADB’s March fiscal year 2016 (year to March 2017) projected growth target of 7.4 per cent, supported by brisk consumer spending and an uptick in the rural economy”, ADB said in a supplement to its Asian Development Outlook 2016 report.

“Although the Brexit vote has affected developing Asia’s currency and stock markets, its impact on the real economy in the short term is expected to be small,” said Shang-Jin Wei, ADB’s Chief Economist.

However, in light of the tepid growth prospects in the major industrial economies, policy makers should remain vigilant and be prepared to respond to external shocks to ensure growth in the region remains robust,” Wei said.

ADB said it now forecasts 2016 growth for the developing economies at 5.6 per cent, below its previous projection of 5.7 per cent. For 2017, growth is seen unchanged at 5.7 per cent.

Growth in 2016 and 2017 is led by South Asia, and India in particular, which continues to expand strongly, while China is on track to meet earlier growth projections, it said.

In Southeast Asia, growth projections for the subregion in the 2016 and 2017 remain unchanged at 4.5 per cent and 4.8 per cent, respectively with solid performances by most economies in the first half of 2016 driven by private consumption.

The exception was Vietnam where the economy came under pressure from a worsening drought that caused a contraction in the agriculture sector, it added.

ADB said growth in Asia and the Pacific’s developing economies for 2016 and 2017 will remain solid as firm performances from South Asia, East Asia and Southeast Asia help offset softness from the US economy, and near-term market shocks from the Brexit vote.

It has projected inflation for developing Asia at 2.8 per cent for 2016 and 3 per cent or 2017- a 0.3 percentage point rise for each year from the previous forecasts.

“The rise is largely due to a recovery in oil and food prices,” it added.

The Manila headquartered ADB is owned by 67 members – 48 from the region. In 2015, ADB assistance totalled $27.2 billion, including co-financing of $10.7 billion.

Source :
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/53263953.cms

Cisco readies plan to set up manufacturing plant in India

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Technology major Cisco is working on a plan to establish a manufacturing facility in India and is in talks with the government for the same, a top official of the company has said.

Terming India as one of its “best bases”, Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins said the company is “very actively involved in India across the board” and working on a broader base from digitisation to smart cities in the country.

He was interacting with reporters at the Cisco Live 2016 annual conference here.

On expansion plans in India, Robbins said, “… Prime Minister Narendra Modi is very committed to manufacturing. We worked through a business case and… presented to him that… That was fantastic and we have been moving forward.”

He added that the company is moving forward on various healthcare and security initiatives, with a lot happening on the digital cities front.

Cisco is engaged in over 15 smart cities projects in the country. The company is also working with Andhra Pradesh government for rolling out Bharat Net.

The company views India as one of the best bases and is focusing a lot on education as well, Robbins added.

The country is home to Cisco’s second-largest site, which has about 11,000 employees. It is offering education to 24,000 students spread across 47 schools.

Source : http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/53187492.cms

 

Brexit offers lifeline on $800 billion emerging company debt

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Britain’s vote to exit the European Union (EU) has thrown a lifeline to emerging-market companies facing an $800 billion wall of maturing debt.

By hindering the Federal Reserve’s plan to raise interest rates, the referendum result has led to speculation borrowing costs will remain lower for longer as policy makers attempt to prevent Europe’s turmoil turning into a recession. This means developing-nation companies that borrowed when it was cheaper to do so won’t have to pay more to service those bonds, at least for now.

The prospect of fewer defaults shows how the so-called Brexit vote is proving a blessing for developing-nation companies that need to pay back about $200 billion per year from 2017 to 2020. Economists from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the Bank for International Settlements have been warning Fed monetary tightening may set off an increase in corporate failures in emerging markets. Defaults have been climbing since 2013 and reached a seven-year high in the second quarter.

“We might even see a decline in default rates again in the third and fourth quarters of this year,” said Apostolos Bantis, a Dubai-based credit analyst at Commerzbank AG, who recommends investing in Latin American company bonds. “The overall outlook now is more positive for emerging-markets corporates because the Fed is very unlikely to move any time soon following the Brexit.”

Uncertain outcomes

The policy uncertainty engulfing the developed world has boosted the appeal of emerging countries, usually viewed by investors as more vulnerable to political risk. Yields on a Bloomberg index tracking developing-nation corporate bonds have fallen 27 basis points to 5.19% since the UK vote, adding to a recovery that started when oil prices began rebounding from a 20 January low.

The sentiment shift means that defaults are probably past their peak, according to Kathy Collins, an analyst at Aberdeen Asset Management in London. By 28 June, S&P Global Ratings had recorded 10 emerging-market corporate defaults in the second quarter, the worst quarterly tally since mid-2009. The rating company’s 12-month junk-bond default rate climbed to 3.2% at the end of May from 2.9% at the end of April.

“Given where commodity prices are at the moment, we’re not expecting too many more defaults,” Collins said. “In the first six months of this year, we’ve seen a lot of companies be very proactive in terms of tenders and buybacks in the market.”

Buying back

Russia’s Novolipetsk Steel PJSC and shipping operator Sovcomflot OJSC have announced they intend to buy back debt totaling as much as $2 billion. Latin American bonds sales surged over the past week, which HSBC Holdings Plc partly attributed to an increased likelihood of “ultra-low global policy rates” for longer. Brazilian meat packer Marfrig Global Foods SA sold $250 million of securities to repurchase outstanding notes in a push it said would “lengthen its debt maturity profile and reduce the cost of its capital structure.”

The issuance boom may prove short lived if the prospect of Fed tightening re-emerges. The UK’s vote to end its 43-year association with the EU has also ushered in a period of uncertainty for global markets that may eventually turn investors off developing-world assets. In June, the BIS reiterated a warning that emerging market non-bank borrowers that have accumulated $3.3 trillion in dollar debt are coming under strain as their economies slow and currencies weaken.

“If we get some volatility in emerging markets, say from political noise coming from the EU, and there is no access to capital markets from some issuers, that could be really negative,” Badr El Moutawakil, an emerging-market credit strategist at Barclays Plc in London said.

Even after the Brexit dust settles, looming elections in the US, Germany, France and possibly the UK mean a lengthening list of potentially disruptive events, strengthening the hands of dovish central bankers. Emerging-market companies have raised $3.71 billion of international bonds since the UK’s referendum on 23 June.

“External factors are more supportive,” said Bantis from Commerzbank. “The default trend of the past quarter is unlikely to continue.” Bloomberg

Source: http://www.livemint.com/Politics/sCZ90ORt2l0cm0rnS0DIqJ/Brexit-offers-lifeline-on-800-billion-emerging-company-debt.html

US, Europe combined infra spending less than China’s

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Despite a crying need for better infrastructure, investment in it has actually fallen in 10 major economies since the financial crisis, including the US, according to a new study by the McKinsey Global Institute. Meanwhile, China is still going gangbusters on roads, bridges, sewers, and everything else that makes a country run.

“China spends more on economic infrastructure annually than North America and Western Europe combined,” according to the report published Wednesday.

Economists around the world have been arguing that now is a great time to invest in infrastructure because interest rates are super-low and the global economy could use the spending jolt. “Is anyone proud of Kennedy airport?” Harvard University economist Lawrence Summers likes to ask.

The MGI report cites 10 countries where infrastructure spending fell as a share of gross domestic product from 2008 to 2013: the US, UK, Italy, Australia, South Korea, Brazil, India, Russia, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia. The study counts 11 economies, but that’s because it lists the European Union as a separate entity.

In contrast to the widespread declines, the institute says, infrastructure spending grew as a share of GDP in Japan, Germany, France, Canada, Turkey, South Africa and China. The chart from the MGI report shows China’s strength in infrastructure spending. Its bar is the highest. There’s such a thing as too much infrastructure spending, of course. At current rates of investment, China, Japan, and Australia are likely to exceed their needs between now and 2030, the McKinsey & Co-affiliated think tank says. To fund more public infrastructure, the report favours raising user charges such as highway tolls, among other measures.

To encourage more private investment in infrastructure, MGI argues for increasing “regulatory certainty” and giving investors “the ability to charge prices that produce an acceptable risk-adjusted return.”

 

Source:  http://www.business-standard.com/article/international/us-europe-combined-infra-spending-less-than-china-s-116061600030_1.html

US firm 8minutenergy to build solar facility in India

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A US renewable energy company, 8minutenergy Renewables LLC, will set up 4 GW of solar power capacity in India.“8minutenergy Renewables will pursue a 4 GW solar photovoltaic project pipeline in India,” a statement from the White House said. “These utility-scale solar projects are expected to generate over 10,000 jobs in the construction phase in India.”

Founded in 2009 by Martin Hermann and Tom Buttgenbach, the California-based company has 330 MW of operating solar plants. Plants of total capacity of 400 MW are under construction, while another 3,000 MW are in the pipeline. These include an 800 MW solar farm at Mount Signal in California, claimed to be the world’s largest.

Another US company, SunLink Corporation “is partnering with Indian companies to deploy 1.4 GW of solar projects over the next five years,” the statement said. SunLink manufactures solar racking systems, or the frames on which modules are mounted. It also provides performance monitoring solutions.

In the meantime, the US has announced the setting up of a Clean Energy Finance Hub, which “will serve as a coordinating mechanism to focus US Government effort that, in partnership with leading Indian financial institutions, will increase renewable energy investment in India,” the statement said.

Source: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/companies/us-firm-8minutenergy-to-build-solar-facility-in-india/article8714858.ece

India, US to expand economic cooperation, break down trade barriers

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India and the US today vowed to expand economic relation between the two nations and explore new opportunities to break down barriers to facilitate movement of goods and services.

The leaders of the two countries resolved to pursue US- India Totalisation Agreement and enhance engagement on intellectual property rights with a view to promote innovation and creativity.

“In order to substantially increase bilateral trade, they (leaders) pledged to explore new opportunities to break down barriers to the movement of goods and services, and support deeper integration into global supply chains, thereby creating jobs and generating prosperity in both economies,” said the joint statement issued after a meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Barack Obama.

They look forward to the second annual Strategic and Commercial Dialogue in India later this year to identify concrete steps in this regard, it added.

Highlighting the strong and expanding economic relations between the US and India, the leaders committed to support sustainable, inclusive, and robust economic growth, and common efforts to stimulate consumer demand, job creation, skill development and innovation.

It was decided to continue discussion later this year on the US-India Totalisation Agreement.

The ‘Totalisation Agreement’ seeks to do away with double taxation of income with respect to social security taxes.

Under this agreement, professionals of both the countries would be exempted from social security taxes when they go to work for a short period in the other country.

The two leaders also committed to make concrete progress on IPR issues by working to enhance bilateral cooperation among the drivers of innovation and creativity.

They also commended the increased engagement on trade and investment issues under the Trade Policy Forum (TPF) and encouraged substantive results for the next TPF later this year.

The leaders also welcomed the engagement of the US’ private sector companies in India’s Smart City programme.

The leaders resolved to facilitate greater movement of professionals, investors and business travellers, students, and exchange visitors between their countries to enhance people-to-people contact as well as their economic and technological partnership.

On the MoU for Development of an International Expedited Traveller Initiative (also known as Global Entry Programme) the statement said efforts will be made for entry of India into the said programme within three months.

 

Source: http://www.ptinews.com/news/7531712_India–US-to-expand-economic-cooperation–break-down-trade-barriers-.html

Intangible MNC assets may be taxed in case of a global merger and acquisition

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A recent clarification by the government has created a stir among some multinationals which are concerned that their Indian entities might be taxed even in case of a global merger and acquisition with another global company.

More so, the worry is in case of multinationals that hold intangible assets in India, either through research and development centres, or are engaged in businesses where it is tough to value assets.

This is mainly because tax component, if at all, would be decided on valuation of the Indian entity, and whether valuation (Indian entity) accounts for more than half the holding entity outside India. This comes in the wake of the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) announcing rules for determining fair market value in case of indirect transfer of shares of an Indian entity. Rules specify a method for determination of “fair market value” of foreign target company shares and Indian company shares. In case of an indirect transfer of shares or transaction, if the value of Indian assets is more than 50% of the foreign target company, this could lead to taxation in India.

So if an US-headquartered company invests in India through a Mauritius company and at any point in time there’s a change in ownership, the tax could be applied. The tax would be triggered in India if the ownership of the Mauritius company is changed, and if more than 50% of the total assets of this company (Mauritius company) are in India.

“If a multinational has a presence in India through an intermediate holding vehicle in a third country, and if there is an M&A deal at the intermediate holding entity level, the Indian entity can attract taxation in India,” said Amit Singhania, Partner at Shardul Amarchand Mangaldas.

“While the 50% rule applies, valuing the Indian assets, particularly the right of management or control in an unlisted Indian company would be challenging,”  Singhania said.

Many multinationals are now rushing to their Indian tax consultants to find out which transactions could attract tax here. “Many multinationals that have a presence in India through Mauritius could face some tax in India even if there is an offshore M&A deal, especially where the seller is based in a country whose treaty does not exempt capital gains tax in India,” said Rajesh H Gandhi, partner, tax, Deloitte Haskins and Sells.

“However, more importantly, it could be challenging to identify and value some of the assets and determine the place where they are situated. This would be more relevant for assets like human resources, contractual rights and intangibles such as mobile applications, results of R&D or patents developed in India but registered elsewhere,” said Gandhi.

Industry trackers say that in case of an M&A at an international level, the shares of holding companies are transferred or merged, which is where the problem lies. Many experts also point out that information and documentation required to ascertain the valuation of Indian as well as an intermediary is not just complicated but tough to come by in many cases.

“If so, income tax would assume the Indian entity’s valuation is more than 50% of the holding entity,” said a consultant currently advising such a client. Experts point out that patents held by the Indian company, and some other assets too have to be valued. Not only valuing these intangible assets could have different views, in some cases, these patents or other intangible assets are developed in India but sit on the balance sheet of other group companies outside India.

Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/52474147.cms