Demonetisation move negative for near term economic activity: Goldman

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The government’s announcement to demonetise Rs 500, Rs 1,000 notes to curb black money is positive for banking system liquidity but is negative for near term economic activity, says a report.

“The announcement to curb informal circulation of money is likely to be positive for banking system liquidity as well as medium-term fiscal resources and financialization, but negative for near-term economic activity,” Goldman Sachs said in a report released today.

The report said from an economic standpoint, this reform is likely to have material implications across money supply, consumption spending, fiscal policy and eventually inflation.

The pace of increase in currency in circulation had risen significantly over the past year to 17.3 per cent yoy in October 2016, contributing to nearly 20 per cent of the overall increase in money supply over the same time period.

“With individuals depositing their cash at bank accounts, we think M3 growth is likely to switch away from currency into bank deposits over the next month,” it said.

Nearly 10 per cent of total household financial assets are held in currency, higher than those held in equities and debentures.

It said the reform is a positive step over the medium-term as it increases transparency, accountability and shifts more transactions through electronic mediums and the banking system.

The undeclared cash when exchanged at banks over the next few months with an associated identity card, may be tracked by tax authorities and help increase the tax base of the economy, which is currently running below the regional average.

“This could help the government bring the fiscal deficit down to 3 per cent in the financial year 2017-18 from the budgeted 3.5 per cent in in the financial year 2016-17.”

The report said over the medium term, as more transactions take place via the banking system, the RBI should be able to bring the banking system liquidity to net neutrality more smoothly and consequently improve the effectiveness of monetary transmission.

From the growth perspective, the reduction in currency in circulation is likely to be negative for short-term consumer discretionary spending.

In particular, cash-heavy sectors such as jewellery, restaurants, food and beverages, transport, among others are likely to witness a drop in sales.

These sectors account for nearly 50 per cent of overall household spending. This places some downside risks to near-term growth, in our view.

Gold import demand is also likely to be impacted as a result of reduced end-consumer jewellery demand.

It said from the markets perspective, these measures should be positive for the rupee bond market.

Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/55355362.cms

With GST on its way, India rises to second spot on global biz optimism index

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India improved its ranking by one spot in a global index of business optimism, with policy reforms and Goods and Services tax (GST) expected to become a reality soon, says a survey.

According to the latest Grant Thornton International Business Report, India was ranked second on the optimism index during the third quarter (July-September 2016).

Indonesia took the top spot, with the Philippines coming in third.

India was ranked third during the April-June period after being on top for two consecutive quarters.

“The improvement in the optimism ranking in the recent past clearly reflects that the reform agenda of the government and its efforts on improving the climate for doing business are having an impact,” Grant Thornton India LLP Partner – India Leadership Team Harish H V said.

High business optimism was also complimented by the rise of employment expectations. India regained its top position on this parameter, from second position in the April-June period, while profitability expectations also moved up.

“…all the programs and initiatives of the government as well as its focus on building relationships with all major economic powers has made India a bright spot in the global economy,” Harish said, adding the recent push for GST augurs well and should give a further boost to business optimism.

While India continues to be amongst the top five countries citing regulations and red tape as a constraint on growth, for the first time in the year, the country’s ranking on this parameter has dropped from second to fourth.

As per the survey, 59 per cent of the respondents have quoted this as an impediment in the growth prospects compared to 64 per cent in the previous quarter.

The report is prepared on the basis of a quarterly conducted global business survey of 2,500 businesses across 36 economies.

Meanwhile, in terms of revenue expectations, India slipped to third position from top in the previous quarter.

In spite of the downturn, India is much ahead of China where only 30 per cent respondents expect an increase in revenue, whereas in India, 85 per cent respondents have voted in favour of increasing revenue.

The survey further noted that 68 per cent of respondents have voted for an upsurge in selling prices. On this parameter too, China lags India with only 10 per cent of respondents expecting an upsurge in selling prices. The global average is 19 per cent.

Globally, business optimism stands at net 33 per cent, rising 1 percentage point from the previous quarter but falling 11 percentage points over the year.

“Political events such as Brexit and the US presidential election understandably rattle the global economy and test the resilience and elasticity of businesses worldwide. In general, businesses do not like uncertainty, and that is what is happening,” Grant Thornton Global CEO Ed Nusbaum said.

Source : http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/55277143.cms

 

RBI spells out rules for start-ups to raise ECBs

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To support financing for start-ups, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday issued rules permitting these to raise external commercial borrowings (ECBs).

 

In a statement, RBI said the borrowing per start-up was capped at $3 million per financial year. It could be either in rupees or a convertible foreign currency or a combination of both.

 

The money could be used for any expenditure of the borrower’s business.

 

The statement also said the funds so raised would have a three-year maturity and could be raised through loans as well as convertible and non-convertible debentures.

 

RBI said, “Startups can tap lenders and investors only from countries that are members of the Financial Action Task Force.”

 

If the funds were in rupees, the non-resident lender would provide it through swaps or outright sale through domestic banks.

 

RBI also advised start-ups raising money through ECB to have a risk-management policy as these would be exposed to currency risks because of exchange-rate movements.

 

Source: http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/rbi-spells-out-rules-for-start-ups-to-raise-ecbs-116102701777_1.html

 

Ease of doing business: India banks on ‘remarkable work’ to improve World Bank ranking

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A man is silhouetted against the logo of the World Bank at the main venue for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank annual meeting in Tokyo October 10, 2012. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon

As the World Bank looks set to release its annual ranking of countries in the ease of doing business later this week, India expects to improve its position from last year’s 130 out of 189 economies. The optimism stems from the fact that, for a second straight year, the country expects its ranking in “getting electricity’’ to improve substantially on the back of some “remarkable work” done by states, a senior government official told FE.

Last year, India was placed at 70 of the 189 countries in “getting electricity”, compared with 99 in the previous year. This had helped the country improve its ranking in the overall ease of doing business by 4 notches.

The government also believes that its “targeted intervention” to improve performance in difficult parameters — including dealing with construction permits and enforcing contracts — where the country has been faring badly for years now will start to pay, the official said.

So while it will take some time to correct the course in certain legacy issues, especially in enforcing contracts, the DIPP believes the much-improved performance of states will be reflected in the country’s ranking for the years to come.

For instance, while only two states (Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh) had scored over 70% in a 98-point action plan for the ease of doing business — jointly decided by them and the Centre — last year, as many as 16 states have scored over 70% so far this year, that too on a 340-point action plan, showed the latest data by the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP). Importantly, 10 states have scored over 90% so far this year (Andhra Pradesh and Telangana top the charts in 2016, each scoring over 99%).

The latest ranking of the World Bank takes into account reforms done up to the end of May, except in case of taxation.

The performance in access to electricity has been impressive, the official said. For instance, in Mumbai, the time required for getting a new electricity connection has been reduced to an average of around 15 days from 67 days earlier. The number of procedures involved has been cut down to just 3 from 7. Similarly, in Delhi, people can get connections in just 15 days now from as many as 140 days a few years earlier. The number of document required has been reduced to just 2 from 7 earlier. Access to electricity is crucial as it also has bearing on performance in some other aspects of the ease of doing business.

In “dealing with construction permits”, where the country was ranked at 183 of the 189 countries, the performance has improved. For instance, in Delhi and Mumbai, common online application form has been adopted for seeking construction permits. People don’t have to get no-objection certificates from anyone, as municipal corporations will get these certificates for them online. Earlier, some 18 no-objection certificates from different departments were required to be obtained by individuals for getting construction permits.

Also, in a metro like Delhi which has traditionally fared badly in handling construction permits, the documents required for this purpose has now been cut to just 14 from 39 earlier. Nine departments involved in the process of the sanction of buildings have been integrated online. The drawing of the construction plan is “auto-checked” by a software and no site inspection is necessary. Reforms on this parameter have been even quicker in other parts of the country.

On enforcing contracts in which India was placed at 178, the government has decided to set up commercial courts in a big way after the Commercial Courts, Commercial Division and Commercial Appellate Division of High Courts Bill was signed into a law on January 1.

Although the exact data on the formation of such courts are yet to be compiled precisely, roughly a dozen such courts are learnt to have been set up, especially in Delhi, Mumbai, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, to settle high-value business disputes.

All pending suits and applications on commercial disputes involving a claim of Rs 1 crore or more in high courts and civil courts will be transferred to the relevant commercial division or courts. The decision to set up such courts is in sync with the Narendra Modi government’s aim of making India a global arbitration hub. The government plans to introduce e-summon system and efforts are on to expedite the process of getting a verdict, said the official.

To boost cross-border trade, the number of documents required for trade has been restricted to just 2-3 from as many as a dozen in certain cases earlier. Importantly, the finance ministry is learnt to have sanctioned Rs 2,500 crore for the upgrade of the IT and some other systems of the Customs departments.

Source: http://www.financialexpress.com/economy/ease-of-doing-business-india-banks-on-remarkable-work-to-improve-world-bank-ranking/428887/

FPI inflows top Rs. 20,000 cr in Sept, at 11-month high

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Foreign investors pumped in more than Rs. 20,000 crore into the capital market in September, making it the highest net inflow in 11 months.

This also marks the third consecutive month of positive inflows (equity and debt).

The trend is likely to continue in the coming weeks as regulator SEBI has decided to offer well-regulated foreign investors direct entry to invest in corporate bonds, say experts.

They attributed the latest flurry of capital to factors such as sound progress in roll-out of GST, better corporate earnings and the US Fed’s decision not to lift interest rates.

Sentiment turned better after the current account deficit (CAD) narrowed sharply to just $300 million, or 0.1 per cent of GDP, in the June quarter and domestic passenger vehicle sales grew for the 14th straight month in August, they added.

According to depositors’ data, net investment by FPIs stood at Rs. 10,443 crore in equities last month while the same for debt was Rs. 9,789 crore, taking the total inflow to Rs. 20,233 crore ($3 billion).

This was the highest net inflow in the capital markets since October 2015 when FPIs had infused Rs. 22,350 crore.

The latest inflow has taken the FPI investment tally in equities to Rs. 51,293 crore in 2016 while the same for the debt market stands at Rs. 2,441 crore, resulting in a net inflow of Rs. 53,734 crore.

Source: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/fpi-inflows-surpass-rs-20000-cr-in-sept-at-11month-high/article9176139.ece

GST Council: Tax exemption threshold fixed at Rs 20 lakh

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The first session of the GST Council that concluded here on Friday made good progress in ironing out some of the contentious issues between the Centre and states: The exemption threshold for the goods and services tax (GST) has been fixed at Rs 20 lakh for all states except the northeastern ones and the three hill states of Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, in whose case this limit would be Rs 10 lakh; states will have the assessment powers for units with annual turnover up to Rs 1.5 crore while in the case of bigger businesses too, the one-taxpayer-one-authority principle will be retained and either the Centre or the state concerned will be accorded the assessing power based on risk profiling.

Importantly, the Centre agreed to the states’ demand for including the proceeds from sundry cesses levied by them in the definition of “revenue”, a step that could increase its compensation payouts. This would also mean that the states would cease to levy the cesses, the proceeds from which stood at close to Rs 40,000 crore in FY16.

The council decided to take 2015-16 as the base year to compute compensation to states for any future revenue loss, but left open the question of projecting the business-as-usual rate of increase in revenue, crucial for quantifying compensation. Finance minister Arun Jaitley said three options were under consideration for projecting the revenue growth rate: A mutually agreed-upon fixed rate; the average of the three best (high-growth) years in the past five years; and the average of median three of the last five years. States had earlier turned down the Centre’s proposal for taking the average of the last three years for projecting future revenue growth, saying these years haven’t been particularly good due to the economic slowdown.

Jaitley said the Centre will continue to assess the 11 lakh service tax assessees (even those below Rs 1.5 crore) but added that states will be given training to assess them and once they acquire competence, the future addition to this taxpayer base will be shared with them for the purpose of assessment.

Regardless of whether the Centre or the state has control on an assessee, the tax proceeds will be shared between the two — the central GST component will go to the Centre and the states will appropriate the state GST, which could be slightly higher than central GST. As far as integrated GST — to be levied on interstate transactions and imports — is concerned, the place of supply rules will decide who the appropriating authority will be; of course, the basic principle is that tax needs to be paid where the consumption takes place.

The council, Jaitley said, would meet again on September 30 to finalise the draft rules on the council’s functioning and the exemption thresholds and decide how the grandfathering of tax sops (like the area-based excise exemptions) will be carried out. The crucial question of the GST slab structure, the revenue-neutral rate (RNR) and actual GST rates would be discussed by the council between October 17 and 19. The Arvind Subramanian panel that had estimated a RNR of 15-15.5% had said if the standard rate is 17%, it could comprise central GST of 8% and state GST of 9%.

Tax experts welcomed the outcome of the first meeting of the council. Harishanker Subramaniam, national leader, indirect tax, EY India, said: “It is interesting is that for GST on services, the Centre will have administrative control irrespective of threshold at least in the initial years till states are trained to handle services. This may be a good news for industry as many were worried as to how states will handle complexity of services.”

According to Pratik P Jain, leader, indirect tax, PwC India, enhancing the annual turnover for exemption to Rs 20 lakh from Rs 10 lakh contemplated earlier would be administratively easier for the government as several small businesses would be out of the GST ambit. “Industry would also welcome the move to have a single assessing authority, instead of having a dual system of assessment and scrutiny, which was a major concern for businesses,” he said.

Source: http://www.financialexpress.com/economy/threshold-for-gst-fixed-at-rs-20-lakh/389350/

Ease of doing business: 12 states implement 75% of reforms

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As many as a dozen states, including Uttarakhand, Rajasthan and Jharkhand, have implemented 75% of the reform initiatives under the ease of doing business programme, reflecting positive sentiments, commerce minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Thursday.

These three states are followed by Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Punjab and Karnataka in implementing reforms.

The government, however, has maintained that the review process of the reform initiatives is still on and the current rankings may change.

The ranking of states is an assessment of the regulatory performance of states and a measure of how they improve over a period of time. Importantly, the rankings don’t accurately reflect the level of business-conducive nature of the states; rather, it shows how the states fared in implementing an action plan adopted by them with the help of the Centre within a particular time frame.

Addressing the inaugural session of the Invest North Summit organised by CII, Sitharaman also said tax and regulatory authorities are being directed not to go on an overdrive and asserted the government will not in any way create hindrances for businesses.

The ranking is based on indicators including the ease of starting a business, registering a property, getting credit, paying taxes and resolving insolvency.

The World Bank, which has been entrusted with the job of ranking states on their performance on ease of doing business by the centre, will likely wrap up this exercise by the end of this month.

Talking on the occasion, Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion Ramesh Abhishek said India is also hopeful of improving its rank among other nations in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index.

Last year, India was ranked 130th in the World Bank’s index covering 189 countries, an improvement of four notches from a year before.

While India improved its rank on three counts — starting a business, getting construction permits and accessing electricity — it witnessed its performance worsen in two areas — accessing credit and paying taxes.

Source: http://www.financialexpress.com/economy/ease-of-doing-business-12-states-implement-75-of-reforms/387441/