Indian Economy seems to be on way to recovering from Demonetisation Disruptions, says IMF

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India’s economy has expanded strongly in recent years, said Tao Zhang, Deputy Managing Director of IMF.

IMF has underscored the significance of reforms in other key sectors like education, health and improving the efficiency of the banking and financial systems.

 

The Indian economy now seems to be on its way to recovering from disruptions caused by demonetisation and roll-out of goods and services tax, the IMF said today. At the same time, the IMF has underscored the significance of reforms in other key sectors like education, health and improving the efficiency of the banking and financial systems.

India’s economy has expanded strongly in recent years, thanks to macroeconomic policies that emphasise stability and efforts to tackle supply-side bottlenecks and structural reforms. Disruptions from demonetisation and the rollout of the goods and services tax (GST) did slow growth,” Tao Zhang, Deputy Managing Director of IMF, told PTI in an interview.

“However, with the economy expanding by 7.2 per cent in the latest quarter, India has regained the title of the fastest-growing major economy, Zhang said.

Calling this development a “welcome change”, Zhang said the growth prospects remain positive.

“That said, the Indian economy would benefit from further reforms, such as enhancing health and education, encouraging private and public investment, and improving the efficiency of the banking and financial system. This would support durable and inclusive growth and enable India to move toward the income levels of wealthier countries, the top IMF official said ahead of his visit to India.

Given the dominance of cash in everyday transactions in the Indian economy it was inevitable that demonetization would temporarily affect economic activity, said Zhang who is travelling to India and Bhutan from March 12 until March 20.
The rollout of the GST last year was a landmark accomplishment that can be expected to enhance the efficiency of intra-Indian movement of goods and services, create a common national market, enhance tax buoyancy, and boost GDP growth and job creation, he said.

 

Yet the complexities and glitches in GST implementation also resulted in short-term disruptions. As I mentioned earlier, the economy now seems to be on its way to recovering from those disruptions, Zhang said in response to a question.

When asked about the latest Indian budget, which many critics say is protectionist in nature, Zhang said IMF research indicates that tariffs are broadly contractionary, reducing output, investment, and employment.

Trade tariffs may give limited relief to industries and workers that directly compete with affected imports. However, they can raise costs to consumers and other businesses that use the protected products. Tariffs also would reduce incentives for businesses to compete and improve efficiency, he cautioned.

Since the opening of the economy starting in the early-1990s, India has benefitted from trade liberalization, he observed.

Further supply-side reforms aimed at improving the business climate could enhance these benefits, the top IMF official asserted.

Noting that the IMF and India have close relations, and the two have always been good partners, Zhang said his visit is a reflection of this partnership, as is the newest regional capacity development center, SARTTAC, based in New Delhi.

The center partners with India and its South Asian neighbors to build strong institutions and implement policies that promote growth and poverty reduction in the region, he said.

My visit is an opportunity to exchange views with the Indian authorities, senior RBI officials, and representatives from the Indian business community, civil society, and others, he said.

Zhang will also have a presentation on financial technology that will take place on Monday at the National Stock Exchange of India.

We will go over the latest trends in financial technology and their effects on the global economy and India, said the top IMF official.

Source: NDTV

Private equity investors bring in deals worth $983 mn in January: Thornton

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January was dominated by investments in start-ups which contributed to 52% of total investment volumes

Private equity (PE) investors announced deals worth $983 million in January, a 23 per cent rise in value terms over last year, driven by big ticket transactions, says a Grant Thornton report.

According to the assurance, tax and advisory firm, in January, there were 84 PE deals worth $983 million, against 81 such transactions worth $796 million in January 2017.

“Private equity deals recorded 4 per cent increase in deal volumes and 23 per cent increase in deal value in January 2018 as compared to January 2017,” said Pankaj Chopda Director at Grant Thornton India LLP.

January was dominated by investments in start-ups which contributed to 52 per cent of total investment volumes. On the other hand, energy & natural resources and real estate sectors witnessed big-ticket PE investment over $100 million together capturing 39 per cent of total PE deal values.

Altico Capital’s investment of $195 million across five realty projects in Hyderabad and Pune was the top PE deal in January.

Other major transactions include Canada Pension Plan Investment Board’s 6 per cent stake acquisition in ReNew Power Ventures for $144 million and Warburg Pincus and SAIF Partners’ $50 million investment in Rivigo Services.

Going forward, the PE deal outlook looks bullish especially for the start-up sector.

“Increasing customer penetration in online transactions and increasing solutions to simplify online transactions offered by start-ups will attract interest in start-ups engaged in retail, fintech, foodtech, on demand services and travel and logistics,” Chopda said.

“Government reforms such as RERA, focus on cleantech and on increasing digital financial transactions will drive the momentum in banking and financial, real estate and energy and natural resources.

India-specific strategies by global and already present PE firms and funds raised by new players will act as catalyst for PE transactions,” he added.

Source: Business Standard

 

Qatar economy resilient, continues to perform well, says Seetharaman

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Qatar’s economy has proven its resilience and continues to perform well amid the blockade, improving local liquidity and gaining the confidence of international investors, said Doha Bank CEO Dr R Seetharaman.

“The blockade (on Qatar by a quartet of nations) came as a rude shock to us. But Qatar has withstood… it has proven to be a resilient model. Qatar’s economy was performing around 2.5% last year.

This year we are not expecting less than 3.1% growth,” Seetharaman told Gulf Times in an interview.

He said Qatar improved local liquidity by disinvestment last year.

“If you look at Qatar economy, liquidity was under stress to start with. The government improved local liquidity. Now international investors have reposed confidence in Qatar. The banking system as a whole is improving.

“The loan to deposit ratio in the Qatari banking system has significantly improved and now stands at 112%. This is an improvement of the level, immediately post blockade, which was at 116%.”

Qatar’s banking sector had witnessed credit expansion of around 9%, the deposit book has grown of more than 10.4%, he noted.

He said in the days that followed the blockade, there were challenges in terms of international investors slowing down on Qatar.

“They were concerned about the Qatar economic momentum. Even the rating agencies looked sceptical, which explains the negative outlook on the sovereign.”

But, Seetharaman said, Qatar’s ‘AA’ rating, which is still very high, has not been challenged although the international rating agencies have changed the sovereign outlook to negative. The high rating (A) of Qatar’s banks is also not challenged.

Currently, Qatar holds Aa- by Fitch, AA- by S&P and Aa3 by Moody’s.

“With strong exports, positive economic outlook, and natural gas markets unaffected by the economic blockade, the overall growth for Qatar remains sustainable,” Seetharaman noted.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest World Economic Outlook revised up its forecast for world economic growth in 2018 and 2019, saying sweeping US tax cuts were likely to boost investment in the world’s largest economy and help its main trading partners.

Seetharaman also said new global forecast has a 3.9% growth this year and next. The advanced economies are expected to grow by 2.3% in 2018 and 2.2% in 2019.

The emerging and developing economies are expected to grow by 4.9% in 2018 and 5% in 2019.

India is projected to grow at 7.4% of its gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018 making it the fastest growing economy among emerging economies following last year’s slowdown due to demonetisation and the implementation of goods and services tax.

China, which is spearheading the ‘Belt and Road’ concept is expected to grow up to 6.6% this year, he added.

Source: Gulf Times

Investment in participatory notes hits 6-month high of Rs.1.5 lakh cr in December

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According to SEBI data, the total value of P-note investments in Indian markets – equity, debt, and derivatives – increased to ₹1,52,243 crore at December-end from ₹1,28,639 crore at the end of November.

Investments in domestic capital markets through participatory notes (P-notes) surged to a six-month high of over ₹1.5 lakh crore at December-end despite stringent norms put in place by regulator SEBI to check their misuse.

P-notes are issued by registered foreign portfolio investors to overseas investors who wish to be part of Indian stock markets without registering themselves directly. They, however, need to go through a proper due diligence process.

According to SEBI data, the total value of P-note investments in Indian markets – equity, debt, and derivatives – increased to ₹1,52,243 crore at December-end from ₹1,28,639 crore at the end of November.

This is the highest level since June when the cumulative value of such investments stood at ₹1.65 lakh crore.

Of the total investments in November, P-note holdings in equities were at ₹1.2 lakh crore and the remaining in debt and derivatives markets.

Besides, the quantum of FPI investments via P-notes surged to 4.6% during the period under review from 4% in the preceding month.

Prior to the recent surge, P-note investments were on a decline since June and hit an over eight-year low in September. However, these investments slightly rose in October but fell in November.

These declines could be attributed to several measures taken by markets regulator Sebi to stop the misuse of the controversy-ridden participatory notes.

In July, SEBI notified stricter P-notes norms stipulating a fee of $1,000 that would be levied on each instrument to check any misuse for channelising black money.

Also, SEBI prohibited FPIs from issuing such notes where the underlying asset is a derivative, except those which are used for hedging purposes.

The move was a follow-through of the SEBI board’s approval of a relevant proposal in June. These measures were an outcome of a slew of other steps taken by the regulator in the recent past.

In April, SEBI had barred resident Indians, NRIs and entities owned by them from making the investment through P- notes.

The decision was part of efforts to strengthen the regulatory framework for P-notes, which have been long seen as being possibly misused for routing black money from abroad.

Foreign investors pump $3 billion into capital markets, forex at record high in January

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Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have invested a phenomenal $3 billion (close to Rs 18,000 crore) in India’s capital markets this month on expectations of high yields as corporate earnings are expected to pick up with the economy gathering momentum after the slowdown due to the chaotic implementation of GST.

 

The sharp increase in inflows comes after an outflow of over Rs 3,500 crore by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) from the capital markets in December, data compiled by depositories shows. According to market analysts money pumped in by FPIs has played a key role in fuelling the bull run in the stock markets that saw both the Sensex and Nifty on a record breaking spree in recent weeks.

 

FPIs infused a net amount to the tune of Rs 11,759 crore in stocks and Rs 6,127 crore in debt during January 1-25 — translating into net inflows of Rs 17,866 crore. For the entire 2017, FPIs invested a collective amount of Rs 2 lakh crore in the country’s equity and debt markets.

 

The inflow in the current month can be attributed to anticipation of earnings recovery and attractive yields which is expected to further strengthen inflow from foreign investors in the current financial year, said Dinesh Rohira, CEO of 5nance, an online platform providing financial planning services.

 

However, Quantum MF Fund Manager-Fixed Income Pankaj Pathak believes that FPIs may not be able to repeat this showing in 2018 as withdrawal of liquidity and rate hikes in developed economies pick up. This would provide them with alternative avenues of investment.

 

The FPI investments have also helped to bolster the country’s foreign exchange reserves which touched an all-time high of USD 414.784 billion in the week to January 19, Reserve Bank data showed. The RBI data showed that the forex reserves rose by USD 959.1 million to touch a record high during the reporting week. In the previous week, the reserves had touched USD 413.825 billion after it rose by USD 2.7 billion.

 

The reserves had crossed the USD 400-billion mark for the first time in the week to September 8, 2017 but have since been fluctuating. But for the past four weeks the figure has shown a continuous rise. Higher foreign exchange reserves lead to a stronger rupee which in turn reduces the cost of imports as fewer rupees have to be paid to buy the same amount of dollars to pay for items such as crude oil.

 

A higher foreign exchange kitty also provides a comfortable cushion to finance imports especially at a time when crude prices are shooting up in the international market and the country’s trade deficit has been growing. However, while FPI inflows add to the forex reserves they are considered “hot money” as they can leave Indian shores at short notice and this could send the rupee into a tailspin.

 

A senior finance ministry official said that foreign direct investment (FDI) is a more stable source of funding for the economy and since it also creates jobs and incomes the government is keen to see an increase in such investments. The Prime Minister’s trip to Davos was aimed at achieving this goal, he pointed out. He said that the government has been working on the ease of doing business which has seen a sharp increase in FDI inflows and this policy will continue in the forthcoming budget. At the same time the government is keen FPI inflows are not disrupted due to tax levies on stocks that create uncertainties, he added.

 

Source: Business Today

Government sends tax notices to cryptocurrency investors as trading hits $3.5 billion

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– The government has issued repeated warnings against digital currency investments
– Tech-savvy young investors, real estate players and jewellers are among those invested in bitcoin and other virtual currencies

The government has sent tax notices to tens of thousands of people dealing in cryptocurrency after a nationwide survey showed more than $3.5 billion worth of transactions have been conducted over a 17-month period, the income tax department said.

Tech-savvy young investors, real estate players and jewellers are among those invested in bitcoin and other virtual currencies, tax officials told Reuters after gathering data from nine exchanges in Mumbai, Delhi, Bengaluru and Pune.

Governments around the world are grappling with how to regulate cryptocurrency trading, and policymakers are expected to discuss the matter at a G20 summit in Argentina in March.

The government has issued repeated warnings against digital currency investments, saying these were like “Ponzi schemes” that offer unusually high returns to early investors.

But it has not so far imposed curbs on an industry estimated to be adding 200,000 users in India every month.

B.R. Balakrishnan, a director general of investigations at the income tax department in the southern state of Karnataka, said notices were sent following the survey to assess the penetration and patterns of virtual currency trade.

“We cannot turn a blind eye. It would have been disastrous to wait until the final verdict was out on its legality,” he told Reuters.

The tax department has asked people dealing in bitcoin and other virtual currencies such as ethereum and ripple to pay tax on capital gains. They have also asked for details about their total holdings and the source of funds in the tax notice seen by Reuters.

“We found that investors were not reflecting it on their tax returns and in many cases, the investment was not accounted for,” Balakrishnan said.

Bitcoin, the world’s biggest cryptocurrency, soared more than 1,700 percent last year, hitting a record high just shy of $20,000 as institutional and retail investors around the world snapped up the virtual currency.

Its huge gains have attracted the attention of global regulators tasked with protecting investors from fraud.

In recent weeks, Japan and China have made noises about a regulatory crackdown, while South Korean policymakers said they were considering shutting down domestic virtual currency exchanges.

REGULATION

An Indian finance ministry official said a federal committee was looking into the possibility of imposing restrictions on virtual currencies and that eventually parliament would have to legislate a regulatory regime.

Officials at Zebpay, India’s leading bitcoin exchange, said the industry was adding near 200,000 users every month with an estimated trade volume of about 20 billion Indian rupees ($315 million).

“Many of our customers are treating digital currency like gold,” said Zebpay co-founder Saurabh Agarwal.

Aman Kalra, marketing head of Coinsecure, a bitcoin exchange in New Delhi, said more than 150 bitcoins were changing hands every week through its platform. The company has 100,000 registered users and is now launching a platform to sell ethereum and other digital currencies.

“I don’t think anyone in the government should label our business as a ‘Ponzi scheme’, we are not doing anything illegal,” said Kalra.

Tax inspectors said they sought help from experts in blockchain, the technology that underpins bitcoin, to conduct the survey.

In some cases, tax officials themselves participated in the trade to identify loopholes after they found investors had poured in billions of dollars through unregulated exchanges.

Source: Times of India

PE investments jump 55% to all-time high of $24 bn across 591 deals in 2017

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Flipkart received India’s largest ever PE investment of $2.5 billion in a single round from Softbank

Private equity firms invested $23.8 billion across 591 deals in 2017, making it the biggest year for PE investments in India, says a report.

According to deal tracker Venture Intelligence, the investment value is 39 per cent higher than the previous high of $17.1 billion (recorded in 2015) and 55 per cent higher than $15.4 billion invested during 2016. In terms of number of deals the year 2017 saw 21 per cent less activity as compared to 2016 (731 deals), indicating large number of big-ticket transactions.

“The year witnessed 31 investment deals with size greater than USD 200 million, aggregating to $15.4 billion or 65 per cent of the total investments,” the report said. These figures include venture capital investments, but exclude PE investments in real estate.

In terms of industries, IT/ ITeS companies accounted for 45 per cent of the value pie attracting $10.7 billion worth investments across 325 transactions.

Flipkart received India’s largest ever PE investment of $2.5 billion in a single round from Softbank and another $1.4 billion from strategic investors Tencent, eBay and Microsoft. Softbank also invested $1.4 billion in mobile wallet and payments firm One97 Communications, which owns the Paytm brand. BFSI (Banking, Financial Services and Insurance) companies continued to enjoy the second spot attracting $4.40 billion across 61 transactions.

The sector was led by Bain Capital’s $1.04 billion investment in Axis Bank — the largest ever single investment in the sector — and Warburg Pincus’ $384 million pre-IPO investment in ICICI Lombard General Insurance.

On the back of its two mega bets (Flipkart and Paytm), Softbank emerged as the largest investor during the year with investments totaling over $4 billion (including a $250 million investment in Oyo Rooms).

Other top investors include Canadian pension fund CPPIB with $2 billion investments across five companies; while Warburg Pincus invested $1.6 billion across nine companies, and KKR invested about $680 million.

China’s Tencent emerged as a significant strategic investor in the Indian Internet and mobile sector with investment of $1.1 billion across home grown leaders like Flipkart, Ola, Byjus Classes and Practo.

 

Source: Business Standard